A Leprechaun, a Wizard, and a Grizzly Bear Walk Into a Bar…

…And the bear picks up the tab. Breaking down the Celtics, Wizards, and Grizzlies 3-team trade

The Boston Celtics and Washington Wizards got busy the night of Wednesday, June 21st, 2023. The Celtics made it clear they wanted to trade for Kristaps Porzingis, and the Wizards, who just hit the rebuild button with their trade of Bradley Beal, made it clear they wanted to find Porzingis an enticing enough new home that he would opt into the final year of his deal before the clock struck midnight on his player option. The only problem the two sides faced was their desire for a third team to grease the proverbial trade wheel. 

Earlier in the night, the Wizards and Celtics thought they had found their partner in the Los Angeles Clippers in a deal that would have seen Malcolm Brogdon go to Los Angeles. However, their first three-team trade fell apart after the Clippers, of all teams, axed the deal due to injury concerns surrounding Brogdon. With the clock racing towards midnight, the deadline for Porzingis’ player option, which if left unexercised, would make him a free agent, the Celtics and Wizards pivoted to their good friend, the Memphis Grizzlies. 

While the Grizzlies were uninterested in Brogdon, the Celtics' glut of guards gave them plenty of options to choose from, and the Grizzlies decided that Marcus Smart was the smart choice. The final trade saw the Celtics receive Kristaps Porzingis from the Wizards, the 25th pick in the 2023 draft from the Grizzlies, and the Golden State Warriors’ 2024 first-round pick (top-4 protected) via Memphis. The Wizards landed Tyus Jones from Memphis and the 35th pick in the 2023 draft, Danilo Gallinari, and Mike Muscala from Boston. And finally, the Grizzlies secured Marcus Smart, the 2021-22 Defensive Player of the Year, from Boston. 

A Grizzly Mistake

Understanding this trade from Boston and Washington’s perspective is easy. The Celtics are contenders and are looking to add impact talent, and the Wizards are entering a rebuild and want to add assets and shed salary. However, the Grizzlies’ motivations, and the price they paid, remain perplexing, as there’s a strong argument that Marcus Smart is the third-best player in this trade. 

Marcus Smart is an excellent defensive player, but the offensive side of his game has been a negative for his entire career. He only edges Jones in points and assists per game because he played nearly eight more minutes per game. On a per 36-minute basis, Jones blows Smart out of the water, averaging 15.3 points, 7.7 assists, 3.7 rebounds, and crucially 1.4 turnovers compared to Smart’s per-36 averages of 12.9 points, 7.0 assists, 3.5 rebounds, and 2.6 turnovers. 

Jones is also the patron saint of assist to turnover ratio. His assist-to-turnover ratio of 5.27 is the best of any active player to play a minimum of 300 games. Since 1967-68, there have been 37 seasons where a player combined an assist percentage of 25% or greater with a turnover percentage of 10% or under. Tyus Jones has four of those seasons, with only Michael Jordan and Tracy McGrady having more, at six apiece. If you bump it to a 28% assist percentage and a 9% turnover percentage, it drops to four seasons, three by Tyus Jones and McGrady in 2002-03. 

The Grizzlies functionally flipping Jones for Smart is even more surprising when you factor in Ja Morant’s 25-game suspension. The only reason Tyus Jones isn’t more of a household name is because he has been relegated to the greatest backup point guard in NBA history, and it has been the Grizzlies’ secret weapon over the past two seasons. Since the 2021-22 season, when Ja Morant has been on the court, the Grizzlies have had a net rating of +6.65 and an offensive rating of 118.03. When Jones replaces Morant, the Grizzlies’ net rating drops to +5.38, and their offensive rating goes to 116.7. There is the reality that Morant and Jones aren’t a perfect fit when on the court together (+0.18 net rating, 108.39 OfRtg), but some of that has to do with poor 3-point shooting (31.97%), and unlike most seasons, there is a guarantee that Morant will miss almost a third of the upcoming season. 

While turning Tyus Jones into Marcus Smart at this exact point in Grizzlies’ history is a bit odd, the strangest part of the trade is the draft compensation they sent to the Celtics. The 25th pick in this draft and the Warriors’ 2024 first-round pick is an awful lot to send to the team that is getting by far the best player in a trade. If reporting on the new CBA is to be believed, players on rookie deals will only become more valuable for contenders. And the Warriors’ 2024 first-round pick has the potential to be incredibly valuable. The Warriors are old, financially maxed out, and Draymond Green just opted out of his contract (as I typed this, the Warriors traded Jordan Poole and future draft assets to the Wizards for Chris Paul). If Steph Curry were to miss significant time, the Warriors could easily miss the playoffs. 

Why Did the Grizzlies Trade for Marcus Smart?

As much as I’m dubious of the Grizzlies’ decision, the trade does have some merit. Marcus Smart is the only player in this trade who isn’t on an expiring contract. He has three years and $60 million left on his deal, and depending on how the salary cap jumps with new television rights coming in, his deal could look like a bargain by the end of it. The other factor working in the Grizzlies’ favor is that Smart is a more natural fit next to Ja Morant than Tyus Jones in the backcourt. Morant and Jones are both small guards, while Smart is a defensive workhorse who can take on the toughest perimeter assignments and help offset the presumed loss of Dillion Brooks on the perimeter without the wall-punching shot selection. 

The more I think about this deal for the Grizzlies, the more it feels like they’re content if 2023-24 is a lost season. Entering the final year of his contract, Tyus Jones was going to have a 25-game audition to keep the Grizzlies afloat before being relegated to the most overqualified backup point guard in history and hitting free agency. While that would undoubtedly help the Grizzlies' playoff seeding, come playoff time, having Marcus Smart next to Morant should be more useful. The Grizzlies made a move that should help them in the playoffs and future seasons, at the cost of wins in 2023-24. 

I still think the Grizzlies got the raw end of this three-team trade, and the Celtics made out like bandits. There are very few trades in NBA history (if any) where the team that received by far the best player in the deal also got the most draft equity. The Grizzlies feel like they’re trying to get ahead of the new CBA, but for a contender, they should cross that bridge when it comes. In all likelihood, they could have gotten a better player than Marcus Smart for Tyus Jones and two first-round picks. As for the Wizards, getting anything for Porzingis has to count as a win. He had a player option and could have just as easily tested the market after a career-best season. Turning him into three expiring contracts, one of which is still an excellent player, is the right move for a franchise looking to stockpile draft picks and open up cap space.