A Sterling Cooper Rookie Season

How does Cooper Flagg stack up against LeBron James?

Whether it’s fair or not, which it is decidedly not, Cooper Flagg’s career will always draw some comparison to LeBron James. They’re both listed at 6’9, were two of the most hyped American prospects of their era, and just so happened to spend the first two months of their NBA careers as 18-year-olds. In fact, Flagg’s December 21st birthday is only nine days before James’s, and with that in mind, I thought it’d be fun to see just how Flagg stacks up next to LeBron through the same early stages of his career.

The Basics

I’m calling points, rebounds, assists, steals, blocks, and turnovers the basics because they’re how the average fan engages with an NBA box score. They tell you an awful lot about how a player plays and just how good they truly are. So, let’s see how the Flagg flies in the King’s court.

LeBron v Cooper First 18 Games: Per Game Stats

LeBron has a significant lead in points and assists per game, as well as turnovers, while the two are in a dead heat for rebounds, blocks, and steals. However, these figures are mostly irrelevant due to the massive minutes disparity. A lot has changed in the 23 seasons LeBron has been in the NBA, but one of the biggest shifts has been the steady decrease in player minutes. When we regularize to per 36 minutes, we can see that the gap between the two, at least in terms of per-minute statistical accumulation, is much closer.

LeBron v Cooper First 18 Games: Per 36 Minutes Stats

Based on per-36-minute figures, Flagg has an edge over LeBron in every category besides assists, and LeBron’s significantly higher turnover figure reduces his playmaking advantage. However, points per game, on their own, don’t tell you an awful lot about how good a scorer is. If it took you 50 shots to score 30 points, are you really better than the guy who needed 28 to drop 28?

The Efficiency

Scoring efficiently is not a must for high-volume players, but the absolute best always blend the two. While Flagg and LeBron weren’t true high-volume shooters over their first 18 games, for 18-year-old rookies, they might as well have been Kobe Bryant in 2005-06. This is how the pair’s shooting efficiency stacks up.

LeBron v Cooper First 18 Games: Shooting Efficiency

Flagg owns an edge in everything but free throw generation and, surprisingly, 3-point efficiency. Funnily, LeBron finished his rookie season shooting 29% from three, so his first 18 games represent one of his best shooting stretches of the season.

When looking at the basic figures, Flagg has a pretty overwhelming advantage in most statistical categories. So, would it be fair to say that Flagg’s start to his NBA career has been better than LeBron’s? Not in the slightest.

The Era-Tax

When comparing players across eras, it is non-negotiable to factor in the league environment. The NBA is constantly evolving, and as a result, a player’s statistics can mean one thing in one era and something completely different in another. A good example of this would be Cade Cunningham’s 27.1 points per game on an effective field goal percentage (eFG%) of 48.5% this season. In 2024-25, the league average eFG% is 54.4%, which makes Cunningham’s shooting efficiency from the floor quite poor. However, in 2003-04, the league average eFG% was 47.1%, which would make Cunningham one of the best scorers in the league.

To better contextualize Flagg and LeBron’s first 18 games, I’ve adjusted their shooting efficiency figures to account for the league average in their rookie seasons. A figure of 100 means they’re at exactly league average, 101 means they’re one percent above, and 99 means they’re one percent below.

LeBron v Cooper First 18 Games: Adjusted Efficiency

Now, things look a whole lot more even. LeBron has the edge in 3-point shooting (3P%), eFG%, True Shooting percentage (TS%), free throw attempt rate (FTAr), and 3-point attempt rate (3PAr), while Flagg has the edge in field goal percentage (FG%), 2-point efficiency (2P%), and free throw shooting (FT%). Considering LeBron’s 3-point efficiency declined throughout the rest of the season, and the strong likelihood that Flagg’s improves, I think it’d be a safe bet that Flagg ends his season with an adjusted eFG% and TS% that’s similar or even better than LeBron’s.

Delving deeper into the data, I wanted to see how the pair’s passing, rebounding, and defensive metrics stacked up with each other when you factor in the 23-season gap. For the most part, the individual league average rebounding, assist, steal, block, turnover, and usage percentages have remained relatively stable over the past quarter-century.

LeBron v Cooper First 18 Games: Advanced Metrics

Flagg unequivically has the significant edge in the defensive metrics. He has significant edges in defensive rebound, steal, and block percentage. However, LeBron shouldered a much higher usage and playmaking load. It led to an elevated turnover percentage, but overall, his offense was far more impactful.

Unsurprisingly, LeBron’s box plus/minus (BPM) is significantly higher than Flagg’s over their first 18 career games. His 0.066 BPM* might not sound impressive, but that means he was a league-average regular as an 18-year-old. In contrast, Flagg’s BPM this season has come in at -1.7. Breaking it down a bit further, we can see just how much of an edge LeBron has on the offensive end. Over his first 18 games, LeBron produced an OBPM of 0.905, compared to Flagg’s -2.6. However, Flagg has been as advertised defensively, owning a 0.9 DBPM, compared to LeBron’s -0.838.

*These figures were calculated manually

Cooper Flagg has had an incredibly promising start to his NBA career. He’s holding his own on the offensive end and is already an impact player on defense, despite largely playing out of position on both ends of the court. That being said, LeBron was on another level as a rookie. He was a positive offensive contributor from the jump and was, at worst, a solid defender. Over LeBron’s final three quarters of the season, he improved markedly on the offensive end. With how well Flagg has shot within the arc and limited turnovers, I’d expect a similar trend in his rookie season. Not being as good as LeBron is never an indictment. He’s basically been the best player at every single age, which is how you have the greatest career and end up in the G.O.A.T. conversation. Flagg probably won’t reach those heights, but he’s well on his way to having a sensational career.

For any inquiries about work, discussion, and the like, you can email me at nevin.l.brown@gmail.com.