Above the Break Awards: 2025-26 All-NBA & MVP

It’s that time of the year again

No league gets more mileage out of its MVP award than the NBA. It’s a conversation from the first week of the season to the last, and probably even for a week after the award has been handed out. Just look at this Google News search from between October 31st and November 7th of 2025.

Now, it does make sense that the MVP is such a central topic of discussion. It is the individual pinnacle of the sport, and all other awards flow from its mountaintop. The five players on an MVP ballot should be a voter’s first team All-NBA, and if you expand your MVP ballot wide enough, you suddenly have your second and third teams staring right back at you. Functionally, if you think long and hard enough about the MVP for months on end, you’re simultaneously doing a lot of the heavy lifting for other awards.

To keep with this logic, my unofficial MVP ballot is my first team All-NBA, and then each subsequent team would be who I would vote for six through 15. I personally don’t think there ought to be any distinction between the five best players and the five players who receive MVP votes.

In my analysis, I used Wins Above Replacement as my north star, for it rewards minutes played, as well as per-minute excellence. I also threw in per-possession metrics and on-court and on/off splits to round it out. I relied on Basketball Reference’s VORP and BPM, Dunks and Threes’ estimated plus-minus and estimated wins, and Neil Paine’s Laker (formerly Raptor) per 100 possession and wins above replacement metric.

I believe these metrics all capture what matters to winning in basketball, and I refuse to pick and choose when I listen to them. They’re not infallible, but they’re better than any one person’s eye test, particularly when analyzing the best players in the league. If a scout told me the eighth guy on a tanking team’s bench was way better than the numbers suggest, I’d give it more credence than if a scout said (spoiler) Cade Cunningham was actually better than Kawhi Leonard this season.

MVP & 1st Team All-NBA:

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

This shouldn’t be a shock, but my MVP is none other than Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. The Canadian killer was second in VORP and BPM, a metric Jokic dominates so thoroughly it’s comical, and was first in both Laker and Dunk’s and Threes rate and wins above replacement metrics. The Thunder were +16.5 points per 100 possessions better than the opposition with him on the court, and he had a +12.3 on/off net rating. Throw in the fact that the Thunder only got 33 games from Jalen Williams, and Gilgeous-Alexander absolutely carried a 64-win team from start to finish.

The basic box score stats are just as absurd. He averaged 31.1 points, 6.6 assists, and only 2.2 turnovers per game on a True Shooting percentage (TS%) of 66.5%. In NBA history, the only players who have averaged over 28 points and five assists on a TS% greater than 60%, while also producing fewer than 2.5 turnovers per game, are SGA in 2025-26, 2024-25, and 2023-24, and Michael Jordan in 1990-91. When people say he’s the best guard since Jordan, they’re not speaking in tongues or hyperbole; they’re making statements based on cold, hard facts.

Nikola Jokic

If it wasn’t for a knee sprain, Jokic might have walked away with the prestigious Above the Break MVP. Before that fateful hyperextension, over 32 games, Jokic was averaging 29.6 points, 12.2 rebounds, 11.0 assists, and 3.5 turnovers per game on a TS% of 71.3%, which was good for a BPM of 16.5. Needless to say, if he had kept that up, he would have had by far the greatest individual season of the modern era. Unfortunately, he did twist his knee, which saw him limp over the final 33 games to averages of 25.8 points, 13.5 rebounds, 10.5 assists, and 3.9 turnovers on a TS% of 62.7% and a BPM of 12.0.

The metrics absolutely loved Jokic’s season. He crushed in BPM and VORP, was third in Dunks and Threes per minute EPM, and second in WAR, and was second in both Laker metrics by fractions to SGA. Honestly, Jokic’s excellence has become underrated. Not so much in how great he is, but in how enthralled people should still be by it. He is one of the ten greatest players ever, and just had maybe his finest season. If it wasn’t for a freak injury, I think he would have run away with the MVP, despite two 60-win teams in his own conference. The gap between Jokic and SGA has closed dramatically over the past two seasons, but I still think the heights he can reach for an extended period still soar over the rest.

Victor Wembanyama

When Victor Wembanyama started getting serious MVP buzz, I wanted to commit arson. It’s not that he isn’t great, or that he very well may be the best player in the world at this very moment; it was because the man had played almost 400 fewer minutes than his two closest competitors, and wasn’t leading in didn’t lead in any of the per-minute metrics. The only way you can claim MVP with that sizeable a minutes gap is if you’re the best player by far, and he had decidedly been the second or third best player in the league on a per-minute basis, while also getting the benefit of playing fewer minutes.

With that out of the way, Wembanyama is a freak. He is the best defensive player in the league, and I think it’s okay to say ever. Anyone who says Bill Russell is just trolling. On top of his game-breaking defense, he’s an excellent stretch-five who is also an elite roll threat. There shouldn’t be a list of the league’s best play finishers without him on it. His combination of defense, scoring, and lower per-game minute total is how he managed a league-best +16.5 on/off net rating. Now, for as great as Wembanyama has rapidly become, he still struggles to get to his spots against stronger defenders, is an accident waiting to happen when he puts it on the deck, and he hasn’t fully realized his playmaking potential. If he ever figures those things out, which I’m confident he will, then he will be the MVP, and the league may be over.

Luka Doncic

Will Luka Doncic qualify for NBA awards? Who knows, but my guess is yes. He missed two games for the birth of a child. If you want bad press, hold that against him. If you want good press, don’t prevent one of the best players in the world from landing on an All-NBA team for playing in 64 games. Sometimes, it’s that simple.

Doncic’s game is well-established and still as comically absurd as always. He averaged 33.5 points, 8.3 assists, and 7.7 rebounds per game on a TS% of 61.6%. While his metrics aren’t quite at the level of SGA, Jokic, and Wemby’s, that’s not really an indictment. We just so happen to live in the most talented era of basketball, and Luka has to settle for just outside the inner circle of MVP debates.

Kawhi Leonard

This is probably the first slightly controversial placement, but hear me out. Kawhi finished fifth in BPM and VORP, fourth in Dunks and Threes’ EPM, fifth in their estimated wins, and third in per-possession Laker and WAR. He also had the second-largest on-off swing at +14.5. On top of that, the only guys close to him were the four guys above him. If that doesn’t sound like a top-five player, then I don’t know what to tell you.

It also isn’t like Kawhi’s advanced metrics stand in stark contrast to his basic box score stats. He averaged 27.9 points, 6.4 rebounds, 3.6 assists, and 1.9 steals per game on a TS% of 62.9%. This was arguably the best offensive season of his career, and it’s why the Clippers went 37-28 in games he played, and 5-12 in the games he missed. I know most of the news around Kawhi over the past 12 months has been negative, but he just had one of the best seasons of his career, and reaffirmed his superstar bona fides.

2nd Team All-NBA:

Donovan Mitchell

Last season, Donovan Mitchell helped guide the Cavaliers to 64 wins, finished fifth in MVP voting, and easily made the All-NBA first team. So, what did he do for an encore? Well, he had a substantially better season. If that sounds absurd, it’s because so much of basketball discourse is secretly just a conversation about QB-wins. Mitchell averaged more points and assists this season on better efficiency, but because everything else on the Cavaliers went a little haywire, his season was lost in the shuffle. He might have had the most ignored 27.9 points and 5.7 assists per game on 61.3% TS% season in NBA history.

To put it bluntly, Mitchell carried the Cavaliers to 52 wins. His on-court net rating was +6.9, and his on/off net rating was +6.9. Basically, he transformed the Cavs from a .500 outfit into an elite side. The only problem is that he couldn’t play every minute of every game. While I don’t think he’s anywhere close to the first team, I also think he very clearly should be towards the top of the second team. Mitchell had an excellent season by every measure, and it’s a pity he has been largely overlooked this season just because wins-go-burrrrr.

Tyrese Maxey

One of the reasons Tyrese Maxey grades out so well is that Nick Nurse decided he could play him forever, and another reason is that Maxey is just an excellent player. Despite only playing in 70 games, he finished eighth in minutes played at 2,661. Now, Maxey wasn’t just an innings eater. He averaged 28.3 points and 6.6 assists per game on a TS% of 58.8% and carried a Sixers team that had more absences than an 8:00 AM Friday morning college course. While his advanced metrics weren’t quite at the level of his peers, you can’t rack up value from the bench.

If there is one nit to pick with Maxey, it’s that his on/off and on-court impact are decidedly below an All-NBA level. Obviously, the absence of Joel Embiid and Paul George played a role, and playing so many minutes with VJ Edgecombe, a rookie, didn’t help, but I think Maxey is still in that tier of players who can rack up excellent statistics without it translating quite as much to winning as you’d like. He still deserves an All-NBA second team nod, but if Nick Nurse had a modern understanding of sports science, he very well could be on the third team.

Kevin Durant

Kevin Durant, in his age-37 season, just finished second in the league in minutes played. That, on its own, deserves some applause. A decade ago, if you got that many minutes out of Durant, he’d be in the MVP conversation, but Durant isn’t what he used to be. However, he’s still a damn good player. He averaged 26 points, 5.5 rebounds, and 4.8 assists per game on a TS% of 64.1% and helped guide the Rockets to 52 wins, despite having Fred VanVleet for zero games and losing Steven Adams halfway through the season. With Durant, the mood will always be bumpy, but the production was as steady as it gets.

Superficially, Durant’s production looks as good as ever, but all the advanced metrics suggest he was a sizeable step back from his Brooklyn years. That still translates to a top-ten season in WAR, but on a per-minute basis, he isn’t the force he once was. If Durant had missed a month, he probably wouldn’t be in the All-NBA conversation, but he suited up 78 times and ought to be rewarded accordingly.

Cade Cunningham

The all-in-one metrics never gave much credence to Cunningham’s MVP narrative, and then a collapsed lung took all the oxygen out of it. However, he did have a superlative season. He finished sixth in BPM, eighth in VORP, 13th in EPM and Estimated Wins, and 14th in Laker WAR. This is a situation where Cunningham’s raw box score stats of 23.9 points, 9.9 assists, and 5.5 rebounds on a TS% of 56.4% outpaced his impact. There’s a strong case that he was a top-ten player, but it isn’t that strong, and the Pistons 60-22 record did a lot of heavy lifting for his case.

I don’t want to color Cunningham’s season as a disappointment, but he certainly gets the lion’s share of credit for the collective work of his team. Granted, he is their best and most important player, but the Pistons won with their defense and offensive rebounding. Even without his injury, I would have had him on the second team, which says more about the top five players than Cunningham.

Derrick White

Alright, so this is going to be as much about Derrick White as the guy who isn’t on ANY of my All-NBA teams. First, all of the impact metrics love Derrick White. Despite averaging 16.5 points and 5.4 assists per game on a TS% of 52.9%, White’s EPM ranked 14th, and his Laker WAR ranked seventh. The reason he was able to overcome such poor shooting splits was his elite defense; he averaged 1.1 steals and 1.3 blocks per game, his incredible turnover suppression (1.7 per game), and an on/off net rating of +9.7. I cannot stress how valuable that level of turnover suppression is, and it routinely goes unnoticed by most fans, pundits, and even analysts. White, outside of efficient volume scoring, just does everything else at a super high level, and it’s why the Celtics were able to weather Jayson Tatum’s extended absence.

Now, some people might scream that Jaylen Brown should be here, but he’s basically the anti-Derrick White. Outside of moderately efficient volume scoring, he just doesn’t seem to impact winning all that much. The Celtics were -4.6 points per 100 possessions worse with Brown on the court, and that’s not a single-season aberration; over the past four seasons, that figure comes in at -4.2. Despite a sterling defensive reputation, the Celtics are routinely worse on defense with him, and don’t experience any real bump on offense. He isn’t a bad player, but Brown doesn’t shine in impact metrics because he doesn’t appear to impact the game in an All-NBA manner.

3rd Team All-NBA:

Jamal Murray

Jamal Murray just had a career year by quietly having one of the best 3-point shooting seasons in history. Only 19 times has a player had a season where they shot over 42% from three on over seven attempts per game. Steph Curry has six, Klay Thompson has three, and now, Murray has one. Making it more impressive is the sheer volume of off-the-dribble threes that Murray takes, and it all added up to 25.4 points and 7.1 assists per game on a 62.2% TS%. The chemistry between Murray and Jokic is why the Nuggets led the league in offense, but there is another side of the ball.

While Murray had an awe-inspiring offensive season, his defense remains an issue. He isn’t the Trae Young category of playing a man down, but he is a serious negative. Murray’s status as an offensive dynamo and defensive liability is a common archetype for a lead guard, and the juice is definitely worth the squeeze, but it’s also why he needed a historic 3-point shooting season to make his first All-Star team, and hopefully, first All-NBA team.

Chet Holmgren

In a Victor Wembanyama-less world, Chet Holmgren would be the consensus best defensive player in the league. He’s a nasty rim protector who is mobile enough to survive on the perimeter, and he just anchored the best defense in the league. On defense alone, Holmgren would have an All-NBA case, but he’s also an excellent rim runner and a dangerous enough 3-point shooter to be a spacer. In fact, Holmgren’s value is as much tied to his on-court production as it is to his versatility. He’s a center who can also play power forward, which is an incredibly valuable archetype.

Speaking of on-court production, 17.1 points, 8.9 rebounds, and 1.9 blocks per game on a TS% of 65.3% is incredibly productive. The biggest negatives in Holmgren’s game are that he isn’t a great rebounder, and his offensive creation is a bit lacking. The rebounding isn’t a huge issue since he can play next to a center, and complaining about a center not being a creator is a luxury nit to pick. SGA is the reason why the Thunder are the best team in the league, but Holmgren is why they’re the best defense.

Jalen Duren

Somehow, we made it 12 whole players before our first Jalen. Duren, not to be confused with the other half of Duran Duran, has had a breakout season. He averaged 19.5 points and 10.5 rebounds, 3.8 of the offensive variety, on a league-leading TS% of 68.8%. All of the advanced metrics loved what he did on a rate basis, and since he played 70 games and 1,976 minutes, he racked up a ton of WAR. There’s really no way around it: Duren had an All-NBA season, despite grading out as an average positional defender.

Where Duren goes from here is a mystery. His combination of size, athleticism, and skill allows him to absolutely bully mismatches, but he isn’t really a jump shooter and has only occasionally flashed difference-making passing chops. Outside of continued defensive improvements, he has probably maxed out his current offensive game. However, that’s a problem for the future, and in the present, he should walk into contract negotiations with an All-NBA honor and max contract demands.

Scottie Barnes

For as boring as the Toronto Raptors were this season, Scottie Barnes’ continued growth is all that matters. While his offensive game will probably always leave some wanting, he has now established himself as one of the best, most versatile defenders in the sport. Barnes is a wrecker at all three levels and can handle just about any assignment thrown his way. He’s like Draymond Green, just without the personality disorder.

Offensively, Barnes puts up numbers, but they’re not particularly impressive. 18.1 points and 5.9 assists per game are solid, but when it’s only paired with a 57.7% TS%, it’s hard to call him a go-to option. Barring some miraculous jump shot development, this is probably the player Barnes is. He’s an elite defender who is an above-average offensive contributor, but you have no hope of winning the big one if he’s your best player. That’s not shade, that’s just the reality of the back end of All-NBA teams.

LaMelo Ball

I decided to make an executive decision and put LaMelo Ball in over Amen Thompson and Anthony Edwards. The primary reason is that despite him trailing one or both of them in all of the WAR metrics, he leads both in most of their rate components, and his on/off and on-court metrics are the best of the trio. On top of that, while he trailed both in minutes played, he did play in 72 games and was the driving force behind the Hornets’ transformation into one of the best teams in the league. Also, it’s not like 20.1 points and 7.1 assists per game on 54.6% TS% is awful, either.

Ball is obviously not without his warts. He isn’t a good defender, and his ability to penetrate a defense is a step below most lead guards. However, he is an effectively audacious 3-point shooter and passer who absorbs many offensive inefficiencies for others. I’m not going to sit here and say that Ball needs to be on an All-NBA team, but I’d want him on mine, which is why he’s here.

Just Missed the Cut

Amen Thompson

Amen Thompson led the league in minutes played, guarded every team’s best ball handler, and continued to find ways to be effective on offense despite no jumpshot to speak of. He was awesome all year and had the best on/off differential on the 52-win Rockets. It’s just really hard for defense-first players to make All-NBA, and doubly if they’re not an interior defender. He probably deserves it, but I think LaMelo Ball deserves it more.

Anthony Edwards

By many measures, Anthony Edwards just had his best offensive season. He averaged 28.8 points per game on a 61.7% TS%, both career highs, but he also saw his assists per game drop from 4.5 to 3.7. Edwards is a great player, but his defense slipped this season, and instead of playing nearly 80 games, he only barely squeaked by 60. I don’t think he technically qualifies, but I don’t have to care about a stupid fucking rule, now do I?'

For any inquiries about work, discussion, and the like, you can email me at nevin.l.brown@gmail.com.