Above the Break Episode 47: Playoff Prognostications
In episode 47 of Above the Break, Nevin and James discuss the sad Lonzo Ball injury news, Michael Jordan’s advanced talks to get out of the majority ownership business in Charlotte, Andrew Wiggins’ continued absence from the Golden State Warriors, the wild middle of the Western Conference, the Denver Nuggets recent woes, and the top of the Eastern Conference. (Link to episode)
Lonzo Ball Injury
Lonzo Ball will have his third knee surgery on the same knee in 14 months. His career may be over, and it looks likely that he’ll miss the 2023-24 season if he ever does make it back to the NBA.
James’ best quip: “Lonzo Ball is a skeleton key player.”
Nevin wonders if Ball was already broken entering the NBA. Cites Baxter Holmes’ articles on the matter from 2019 (Part 1 // Part 2)
Andrew Wiggins May Miss the Rest of the Season
Nothing is official, but Andrew Wiggins may miss the rest of the season and the playoffs attending to a personal matter.
Nevin and James believe this is a death blow for the Warriors’ title defense, and the on-off metrics seem to agree. With Wiggins on the court, the Warriors are good, and with him off, they’re bad. The quartet of Wiggins, Stephen Curry, Draymond Green, and Klay Thompson is an elite four-man unit, but the championship core of Curry, Thompson, and Green without Wiggins is flat-out bad.
The Wild Western Conference Middle
The teams seeded in the Western Conference’s middle (seeds 6-12) are a jumbled mess of mediocrity. Some of the standings have shifted since recording on Tuesday, March 21.
James believes the Golden State Warriors will secure the 6th seed on the strength of their championship mettle but has the Thunder as the team he likes next, thanks to Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. Nevin thinks the Mavericks, with a healthy Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving at only a half-game out, have enough upside to secure it. James believes the Mavericks need to retain Kyrie Irving after this season to have a real chance to round out the roster around their two stars.
Of all the teams in the middle, Nevin and James think the Warriors, especially if Wiggins comes back, are best equipped to win a first-round series. James has the next most confidence in a healthy Lakers team, but a healthy Lakers team remains a big “if.” Nevin ranked the Thunder 2nd due to SGA’s offensive excellence and stingy defense, the Mavericks third because of Luka and Kyrie’s ability to win games singlehandedly, and the Lakers 4th. Their confidence is not high in the group.
Are the Nuggets Fool’s Gold?
The Nuggets’ recent struggles, 2-5 over their past seven games, have raised concerns over their championship upside. While both Nevin and James agree that any team that makes it out of the West should be underdogs in the Finals, they disagree on who that team will be. (Nevin: Go Nuggets! // James: Give me some Suns!)
Nevin and James debate whether small ball can torch the Nuggets and if it is a fatal flaw.
If the Nuggets fall short, is it on Nikola Jokic or the supporting cast? After all, who is their second-best player?
The Cream of the Eastern Crop
Are the Bucks the best team in the East and the NBA? Can they maintain the form they’ve shown over their past 25 games (22-3 and an offensive rating of over 120!)
Giannis is amazing. Jrue Holiday is great. Brook Lopez is the SPLASH Mountain, but what to make of Khris Middleton? Will it decide the Bucks’ title hopes?
Are the slumping Celtics out of the title picture? And why has a dominant offense suddenly tapered off?
Nevin and James believe the Celtics and Bucks are the clear best two teams in the league, but the Philadelphia 76ers have all the ingredients of a championship team (the best duo in the league, top-6 in offense and defense, best 3P% in the league). They have a few reasons why come playoff time they think the Sixers will fall short.