Above the Break Episode 48: Hidden Storylines
The 10 stories that haven't gotten enough press because the Lakers just had to be an 11-seed for 90% of the season
In episode 48 of Above the Break, Nevin and James break down the most recent NBA news and reveal the five stories they believe have been under-discussed this season.
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The News
Andrew Wiggins’ return and the horrors of speculation.
Naz Reid’s season comes to an abrupt end
Nick Nurse’s time in Toronto may be coming to an end and more head coaching thoughts (It’s not the coach’s fault the players suck)
Kristaps Porzingis and the Washington Wizards are in extension talks
There’s a new Collective Bargaining Agreement. Some highlights and lowlights
The Hidden Storylines of the 2022-23 NBA Season
Hidden Storylines Part 1: The Utah Jazz’s Failed Tank & Jimmy Butler for MVP
James believes the Jazz’s hot start to the season masked a poor team that would have been better off trying to tank. At 36-44, it wouldn’t have been tough for the Jazz to go from the ninth-worst record to the fifth-worst at 33-47 with more intentional tanking. The Jazz were eliminated from playoff contention last night and only have a 5% lottery odds at the first, second, third, and fourth picks.
Nevin wants Jimmy Butler’s name in the MVP race. He’s fourth in Box Plus-Minus (8.7) behind only Nikola Jokic, Joel Embiid, and Luka Doncic. The Heat have been dangerously looming and he’s the reason why. Jimmy ‘Buckets’ shouldn’t win the MVP, but his name needs to be brought up in the discussion. As an added bonus, his elite-level trolling needs more respect.
Hidden Storylines Part 2: Knicks Elite Offense & Giannis’ Subpar Season
James knows the surprising Knicks have been covered, but the fact that their offense is driving the bus has not. The Knicks had the third-best offensive rating when we recorded and it now is second! (117.9 points per 100 possessions) The Julius Randle All-NBA Roller Coaster is in a good year, and Jalen Brunson is a star (which both Nevin and James did not predict).
Nevin knows Giannis is the best player in the league, but his 2022-23 has been subpar for the incredible standard Giannis has set. He has his lowest FT% ever and is below 60% on 2-pointers for the first time since 2018-19. By most advanced metrics, this has been Giannis’ worst season since 2017-18. All of this is to say, a down Giannis season is still incredible.
Hidden Storylines Part 3: Evan Mobley DPOY Candidate & Kristaps Porzingis is Good
James doesn’t think enough has been made of how incredible Evan Mobley has been. He leads the league in Defensive Win Shares and is a real Defensive Player of the Year candidate in only his second season. Sophomores aren’t supposed to be this good at defense. James wonders if Mobley living up to the expectation that he would be an incredible defender is working against him. After all, we like surprising hidden storylines.
Kristaps Porzingis is good at basketball, according to Nevin. Porzingis’ career has been viewed in a negative light since he left New York and Nevin doesn’t understand why. He basically played at the level any reasonable person should have expected considering his injuries. Finally healthy, Porzingis has had a career year in Washington and is a top-25 player.
Hidden Storylines Part 4: The Evolution of the Post-Up & Steph Curry’s Clutch Struggles
The post-up is back and better than ever. James believes how the play du jour of your father’s youth has evolved to fit the modern game hasn’t gotten enough love. Instead of posting up center vs. center, it’s about using the post to exploit mismatches. The 3-ball killed the post-up, but it also might have just saved it.
Nevin’s a hater, and he’s hating on Steph Curry. Steph Curry has been abysmal in the clutch this season, and no one is talking about it. He has the fifth-highest usage and is sporting an offensive rating of 102 in those situations (league average is 114.9). But clutch stats are stupid. Nevin is a hater, but he’s not hating on Steph Curry, he’s hating on small samples being made big deals.
Hidden Storylines Part 5: Raptors’ Poeltl Trade & The Bulls and Pelicans’ Elite Defenses
James is a Canadian, but he isn’t a fan of the Raptors or their trade for Jakob Poeltl. He believes enough hasn’t been made of the Raptors’ decision to make a win-now move for a team where winning now means very little. The Raptors have been better with Poeltl, but he’s an unrestricted free agent at season’s end and they gave up a top-6 protected pick to land him. Sometimes to take five steps forward you have to take a step back.
If you told Nevin and James that the Bulls and Pelicans would have top-6 defenses, they would have started planning for the Chicago vs New Orleans NBA Finals. Instead, the Bulls and Pelicans (the Pulls?) are toiling in mediocrity, but not because of their defenses. Considering their starting centers are Nikola Vucevic and Jonas Valancunas, two slow-footed rim-welcoming bigs, it’s even more surprising (although they’re monsters on the defensive glass). The Bulls’ defense looks more sustainable than the Pelicans who are riding the lowest opponent 3-point shooting in the league to their sterling rating, but still, this has to be two of the biggest surprises of the season and it’s being overlooked because their offenses’ have come up short.