Above the Break Episode 50: 2022-23 NBA Playoffs
Episode 50 of Above the Break was recorded on Monday, April 17th before that night’s slate of games. The episode contains comments from each series’ game one and predictions of how the series will shake out going forward. If you would like to listen to the podcast select this LINK.
Philadelphia 76ers (3) v Brooklyn Nets (6)
The Nets are no match for the Sixers, but James Harden’s finishing inside the arc is a concern, and if the Nets have found the blueprint to slow down Embiid, could the Celtics use it to much greater results?
Boston Celtics (2) vs Atlanta Hawks (7)
The Hawks are no match for the Celtics. One roster is perfectly calibrated, while the other needs an offseason to get right.
Cleveland Cavaliers (4) vs New York Knicks (5)
The Knicks killed the Cavaliers on the offensive glass in game one. James thinks they can continue to ride victories on the margins to a series win. Nevin can’t quit a team with +5.5 net-rating (2nd in NBA) and thinks the Cavaliers will control the boards much better throughout the series.
Sacramento Kings (3) vs Golden State Warriors (6)
The Vibes! THE VIBES! What a fun series. The Kings took game one in dramatic fashion and there’s no reason to believe that won’t be the norm in this series.
James backs the Warriors being able to exploit Domantas Sabonis’ defensive weaknesses, while Nevin thinks the Kings’ offense is too good to be denied.
Memphis Grizzlies (2) vs Los Angeles Lakers (7)
The Ja Morant injury will define this series. If Ja is healthy, the Grizzlies are a threat, but the Lakers still look up to the challenge.
While Rui Hachimura won’t score 29 points every game, the Lakers improved depth via trades certainly is paying off.
Defensive Player of the Year Jaren Jackson Jr. had a fantastic offensive game, but there’s no guarantee he keeps it up and stays out of foul trouble. If he can, the Grizzlies may be able to weather a diminished Ja Morant.
Milwaukee Bucks (1) vs Miami Heat (8)
Injuries defined game one, with Giannis Antetokounmpo suffering a back contusion and Tyler Herro breaking his hand.
The Heat took game one on the back of 60% 3-point shooting and the Bucks shooting 24.4%. Nevin believes that once the 3-point shooting variance normalizes, the Bucks will take the series with ease.
Jimmy Butler was a monster in game one, scoring 35 points and dishing 11 assists. The Heat are going to need super human Jimmy all series to pull off the upset.
Phoenix Suns (5) vs Los Angeles Clippers (4)
The Clippers and Suns treated us to the second-best game of the opening weekend, but the performance has left Above the Break backing the Clippers.
The Suns got 22 points from Torey Craig, a 3-19 shooting night from Russell Westbrook, no Paul George for the Clippers, and still lost. “Not good, BOB!”
While the internet went crazy over Westbrook’s intense effort, Nevin and James aren’t sure it’s possible to have a good game shooting 3-19.
Kawhi Leonard is the best player in the series and Eric Gordon’s deep-3 marksmanship gave the Clippers the game one win.
Phoenix is losing the math game by eschewing rim attempts, free throws, and 3-pointers. Can they win in the spite of simple arithmetic?
Denver Nuggets (1) vs Minnesota Timberwolves (8)
The Timberwolves were absolutely destroyed. The Nuggets coasted to an easy victory, and this series looks headed for a sweep.
If the defense the Nuggets showed in game one is going to be a playoff staple, they could be a scary proposition in the Western Conference.