Above the Break Pod: Lucky Number Sevens
In this episode of Above the Break, Lucky Number Sevens, Nevin and James discuss whether two seven seeds making the Conference Finals is a good thing for the NBA and why it happened. They close out the episode by talking about the top five picks from the NBA draft lottery.
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Lucky Number Seven Seeds
The Heat and Lakers finished the regular season as seven seeds and both improbably made runs to the Conference Finals. The Lakers were swept by the Nuggets, but the series was far from a blowout. Meanwhile, the Heat went up 3-0 on the Celtics and are a victory away from the NBA Finals. Is this good for the NBA? Will it continue?
Nevin is still “confident” that the Celtics are the best bet to make NBA history and overcome a 3-0 series hole. James thought the Lakers might have been the team to do it, as a final parting gift to the league from LeBron James.
The Lakers remade their roster just in time, but the praise Rob Pelinka has gotten for saving their season overlooks the fact that he made the decision they needed saving from.
Do two seven seeds making the Conference Finals make the regular season even less meaningful?
For general fans it’s exciting, and it gives hope to fans of teams that aren’t in the upper echelon.
The double-edged sword of parity. We say we want it, and then when it comes, it’s not all that great. Parity has a way of lowering the stakes. There’s no dynasty to topple, and it feels like champions are more random.
NBA history is told through dynasties. The 80s had the Lakers and Celtics, the 90s had the Bulls, the threepeat Lakers, etc
When good teams lose the narrative shift to how much of a failure their season is.
Underdog runs generate tons of content, but do they lead to sustainability? Is it good for the NBA that talk around the sport is rarely about the game? Unfortunately, most people struggle with understanding the action on the court.
Post-hoc reasoning. The result dictates people’s understanding of the process.
Is the depth of talent in the NBA leading to more parity and more success for lower seeds?
NBA Draft Lottery
The NBA Draft lottery saw the San Antonio Spurs secure the first overall pick and the right to draft Victor Wembanyama. Nevin and James predominantly discuss what the other four teams in the top five will do with their pick.
The Spurs’ organizational philosophy of landing the first overall pick whenever there is a generational center prospect seems like a good idea. Maybe more teams should try it out.
Will the Charlotte Hornets select Scoot Henderson or Brandon Miller? Henderson is the consensus second-best prospect, but some have Miller at two. The Hornets already have a franchise point guard in LaMelo Ball, will that push them to Miller, a wing, instead of taking Scoot?
The Portland Trailblazers jumped to the third pick, but are the biggest mystery of all. Will they use the pick to select a player? Or will they trade it to build a contender around Damian Lillard?
Nevin and James both believe the Trailblazers should keep their pick, trade Lillard, and engage in a rebuild, but nothing out of Portland suggests they’ll go that route.
The best trade in their mind is a deal with the Toronto Raptors that nets them Pascal Siakam and possibly more.
The Rockets pick fourth in a draft with a pretty established top-four. Amen Thompson is likely to be there and is a dream fit for the Rockets as he has maybe as much upside as Wembanyama.
Neither James nor Nevin believes the Rockets should pursue James Harden in free agency and should continue to build for the future. That rules out trading the pick for immediate help.
The Detroit Pistons falling to the fifth pick, the pick they had the highest likelihood of landing, could set the franchise back. James thinks Cam Whitmore is the man to take. He’s an athletic wing with a developing jumper, but he has superstar upside if he puts it all together.