Above the Break Quarter Past NBA Awards: MVP & All-NBA
Quarter Season MVP and All-NBA, what more could you ask for in early December?
People sure do love awards, which is why the NBA having a ton of them is such a great idea. Whether it’s MVP, Rookie of the Year, Sixth Man, Most Improved, Coach, Executive, Clutch, Teammate, or Referee Respecter, the NBA has an award for just about every single player. While some of those are made up, the MVP and, by extension, All-NBA are the two most coveted awards. They not only can lead to tens of millions more in earnings, but also mean you’re one of the very best players in the world, not just some guy who isn’t good enough to start. My MVP ballot is also my first-team All-NBA.
MVP & First-Team All-NBA
Nikola Jokic (MVP)
What Nikola Jokic is doing this season is disgusting. He’s averaging 28.7 points, 11.1 assists, 12.6 rebounds, and 1.4 steals per game on a true shooting (TS%) of 72.4%. Those are league-leading rebound and assist figures, and his TS% ranks second. His Box Plus/Minus (BPM) of 16.9 and offensive BPM (OBPM) of 12.3 are miles ahead of the pack and would both be the all-time single-season records. In fact, just his OBPM alone would rank ninth all-time in BPM. With Jokic on the court, the Nuggets have an offensive rating of 129.76 and a net rating of +13.79, and without him, they crater to 114.13 and -3.56. Jokic is on course for the greatest individual offensive season in NBA history, and that means you’re the MVP.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
When it’s all said and done, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is probably going to walk away with another MVP. First and foremost, he’s having a truly insane season. He’s averaging 32.8 points, 6.5 assists, and only 1.7 turnovers per game on a TS% of 67.7%. SGA’s combination of elite volume scoring with an outlier ability to minimize turnovers is why he has an OBPM of 9.9, which would be the fourth-best figure ever. When you throw in the little detail that the Thunder are 21-1, with a net rating of +15.0, and are very much a threat to go down as the greatest team in NBA history, it’s pretty easy to see how Gilgeous-Alexander walks away with another MVP. While the Thunder’s defense is patently absurd, their offense is incredibly reliant on SGA. With SGA on the court, they have an offensive rating of 125.02, but that craters to 108.84 without him. The unfortunate reality is that in just about any other year, Jokic and SGA would have unassailable claims to the MVP. While that will create free real estate in their trophy cases, it gives us the joy of needless debate.
Giannis Antetokounmpo
With the news that Giannis Antetokounmpo will miss two to four to six to eight weeks with a calf strain, chances are he won’t hit the 65-game threshold to qualify for the award. However, I doubt Giannis cares all that much about another third-place finish in this award when he has more important endeavours, such as selecting his next team. On the season, he is averaging 28.9 points, 10.1 rebounds, and 6.1 assists per game on a 66.9% TS%. While his scoring is down a tad from previous seasons, that’s solely a result of exiting two games with injury after playing a combined 16 minutes. On a per 36-minute basis, he’s averaging a career best 35.8 points and 7.6 assists. Giannis’s advanced metrics, a 10.9 BPM and 0.281 Win Shares per 48 minutes, are all MVP-worthy, but in this era of basketball, the definition of MVP is the highest it has ever been.
Luka Doncic
15 years from now, when Luka Doncic can finally eat nachos again, and Nico Harrison is bankrupting a startup shoe company, we may have to ask ourselves if Doncic is the greatest player to never finish second in MVP voting? While I would still bet on him landing one due to the NBA voter base’s shameless willingness to award lifetime achievement award MVPs, the fact remains, Doncic is one of the greatest offensive players ever and has topped out at third in MVP voting. This season, he’s averaging 35.3 points, 8.9 assists, and 8.9 rebounds per game on 62.7% TS%, while guiding the Lakers to a 15-5 record, and no one thinks he’s even close to the MVP. In most metrics, this has been the best season of his career, but the statistical standard has been raised to unprecedented heights.
Donovan Mitchell
If I had an MVP vote, which I don’t, I’d strongly consider leaving the fifth-place spot blank. No other player deserves even a fleeting consideration for MVP, and the next ten or so players are so tightly packed, I’d feel bad including one over the others. However, if I were to split hairs, which I am doing, I’d go with Donovan Mitchell. He’s averaging 30.7 points and 5.5 assists per game on 64.2% TS% and is fifth in OBPM at 6.6. If Mitchell hadn’t donned his red spandex tights and swung to the rescue, the city of Cleveland would have more than a burning river. The Cavaliers have been a massive disappointment, but Mitchell has kept them afloat and in position to make the final three-fourths of the season count.
Second Team All-NBA
Victor Wembanyama
Despite missing a significant chunk of time to injury, Victor Wembanyama still deserves to be atop the second team All-NBA. He is, spoiler alert, the greatest defensive player in NBA history. That alone makes you one of the 15 best players in the world, and he’s also a burgeoning offensive hub. Would it be great if he improved his efficiency and cut the turnovers down a bit? Absolutely, but when that happens, the rest of the league is so completely fucked that I don’t really want to think about it. Right now, Wembanyama is averaging 26.2 points, 12.9 rebounds, 4.0 assists, 3.6 blocks, and 1.1 steals per game on a TS% of 60.9%. If he can stay healthy and continue to iron out the edges of his offensive game, he should move into the periphery of the MVP conversation.
Anthony Edwards
Anthony Edwards, the player, has finally caught up to the hype. For the past three seasons, I rolled my eyes at how much glazing Edwards would receive at the expense of superior players. However, he has finally moved up to the tier of players who deserve to be talked about incessantly. For the season, he’s averaging 29.8 points, 4.5 rebounds, and 3.9 assists per game on 63% TS%. His playmaking figures haven’t budged up much, but the fact that he’s now the Timberwolves’ de facto point guard is a massively positive development. His on-ball defense gives him a slight edge over other, more offensively dynamic point guards who can be attacked on the other end. Fortunately, there’s still a lot of developmental meat on the bone for Edwards to attack. He’s still a below-average ball handler, passer, and mid-range threat. Hopefully, the reps he gets at point guard this season will help him improve in those areas because that holds the key to him reaching the next level.
Tyrese Maxey
Statistically, Tyrese Maxey is having an absurdly good season. He’s averaging 32.5 points, 7.5 assists, and only 2.7 turnovers per game on a TS% of 61%. Now, his stats are a tad inflated due to him averaging 40.1 minutes per game, but that, in itself, is a plus. If you think Maxey should be above anyone outside the top four, I’d have no arguments with that. However, what knocks him back a rung for me is that I don’t think he has been quite as good offensively as Mitchell, and he’s a worse defender than Wembanyama and Edwards. Regardless, I’m a huge fan of Maxey, and I hope to god Nick Nurse doesn’t burn him out by Christmas.
Jimmy Butler
Advanced metrics love Jimmy Butler. He’s ninth in BPM at 6.5 and 13th in OBPM at 5.2, despite per-game averages of 19.5 points (50th), 5.0 assists (34th), 5.6 rebounds (71st), 1.6 steals (18th), 7.7 free throw attempts (9th), and 1.4 turnovers. I’ve been saying it for years, and I’ll say it again: Butler’s combination of free throw generation, turnover suppression, and defensive event creation just leads to winning. If you don’t believe me, just know that with Butler on the court, the Warriors have a net rating of +6.38, and without him, it falls to -7.9.
Stephen Curry
Steph Curry isn’t quite as dynamic as he used to be, but that’s fine when you own the single-season record for OBPM. Also, it’s pretty hard to argue against 27.9 points per game on a TS% of 64.1% and a career-high usage of 33.8%. Curry, as is his birthright, is leading the league in 3-point attempts per game at 12.0 and converting at a 39.1% clip. Whether he still is, the rest of the league is still under the impression that he is the most dangerous shooter in the world, which is a pretty good indication that he still has it. Defensively, Curry has continued to decline, but he remains one of the most productive offensive players in the league by the box score, and the box score undersells his impact.
Third Team All-NBA
Austin Reaves
If your department discovered an undrafted player who was averaging 28.1 points and 6.6 assists per game on a TS% of 68%, you’d probably be pretty surprised to learn you just got fired. You’d also be even more surprised to learn it was your sister who fired you. Now, I’m not saying Joey and Jesse Buss deserved to keep their nepo-jobs, but of all the nepo-babies on the Buss, the ones in the scouting department were doing a pretty good job, and Austin Reaves is Exhibit A. There’s really no way around it. Reaves has developed into a top-25 player and a top-15 offensive player. He’s almost assuredly riding a little hot as a shooter right now, but free throw shooting doesn’t slump, and he’s averaging 9.1 attempts per game. With Luka absolutely killing it and LeBron reintegrating himself into the offense, Reaves’ volume may tick down, but that should only help him improve his already sterling efficiency.
James Harden
The Clippers are the most buttoned-up shitshow in NBA history. They have a salary cap circumvention investigation hanging over their head, Chris Paul wasn’t on speaking terms with Ty Lue, and got dumped in the middle of the night like a mobster who couldn’t keep his mouth shut, and just about every old player on the roster suddenly looks their age. The lone exception to all of this mess has been James Harden. He’s averaging 26.9 points and 8.4 assists per game on a TS% of 62.6%, and his OBPM of 6.3 is fifth in the league. The Clippers are 6-16 this season, but without Harden, they might be 1-21. For as great as Harden has been on offense, his defense is a problem. However, I’m not going to fret over a 36-year-old’s defense who plays massive minutes and shoulders a huge offensive load every night.
Deni Avdija
When I ranked Deni Avdija as the eighth-best small forward in the league, I thought I was being aggressive. Turns out, I wasn’t being aggressive enough because there’s a growing body of evidence that he’s the best small forward in the league. Avdija is averaging 25.8 points, 6.2 assists, and 7.1 rebounds per game on a TS% of 62.5%, good for an OBPM of 5.0. What makes his blend of volume and efficiency so impressive is that he has been the Trail Blazers’ lead initiator for most of the season. It’s one thing to score efficiently at volume; it’s another to create efficient offense at volume. With Advija on the court, the Trail Blazers have an offensive rating of 120.25, but without him, it falls to 103.53. Simply put, this is what stars do. Oh, yeah, I almost forgot, he’s also a good defensive player.
Alperen Sengun
The Houston Rockets have surprised the NBA with the second-ranked offense in the league, and it all starts with Alperen Sengun. His seasonal averages of 23.1 points, 7.1 assists, 9.1 rebounds, 1.3 steals, and 1.0 blocks per game on a TS% of 58.2% are exceptional, but it is his unique skillset that has allowed the Rockets to build their devastating attack. With Joel Embiid perpetually day-to-day, Sengun is now the league’s best off-the-dribble perimeter creator at the center position. His ability to essentially function as a shooting guard on offense plays a crucial role in the Rockets’ historically excellent offensive rebounding. By being so adept on the perimeter, Sengun can drag centers out of the paint and also play next to another center. While he usually isn’t profiting from this, the Rockets and their 123.6 and 38.3 offensive rebound rate are.
Cade Cunningham
Cade Cunningham, thanks to the Pistons’ incredible record (17-5) and massive counting stats, is sure to garner strong All-NBA and down-ballot MVP voting. While I’m far less bullish on Cunningham’s season, that doesn’t mean he hasn’t been quite good. He’s averaging 27.6 points, 9.2 assists, and 6.5 rebounds per game, which are figures that will get you plenty of press, especially if your team is winning. However, what pulls Cunningham down in my eyes are his efficiency and turnovers. Of all the players on my All-NBA teams, his 55.5% TS% is the only one well below the league average of 58.3%. On top of that, his 4.1 turnovers per game are the second-highest in the league. While my research suggests that Cunningham’s turnover rate, based upon his shooting and passing volume, is right where you would expect, he’d need to be elite in this area to offset his shooting efficiency woes. Cunningham is having an outstanding season and is the Pistons’ best player, but he just hasn’t been quite good enough to be anything other than at the bottom of my third-team All-NBA.
For any inquiries about work, discussion, and the like, you can email me at nevin.l.brown@gmail.com.