Above the Break’s NBA All-Star Reserves

Even as the actual All-Star game has lost its luster, the distinction remains as valued as ever. In a league where over 500 players have already appeared in a game, with thousands more across countless professional leagues, fighting to get there, being designated one of the 24 “best” players still carries prestige worldwide. And since the players clearly care about being an All-Star, I care about making sure the most deserving characters garner the distinction within the NBA’s increasingly convoluted parameters.

And about those convoluted parameters. As usual, the All-Star “starters” for the Eastern and Western Conferences are determined by a weighted combination of fan (50%), media (25%), and player (25%) votes. These ten players are locked in for the event, which leaves the other 14 spots up to the coaches, which requires them to select the next seven most deserving candidates from each Conference. But wait, there’s more.

To spice up the All-Star game, the NBA has decided break the 24 All-Stars into three teams of eight, with one team made exclusively of foreign players. So, now it isn’t just picking the seven most deserving remaining players from each Conference, you also have to finagle it based on nationality. With all of that in mind, let’s actually get to the players, who this whole thing is supposed to be celebrating.

The Starters

Fortunately, the All-Star starters were split evenly between international and American. In the Western Conference, the starters are Luka Doncic (INT), Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (INT), Nikola Jokic (INT), Victor Wembanyama (INT), and Steph Curry (USA), and in the East, they are Jalen Brunson (USA), Jaylen Brown (USA), Giannis Antetokounmpo (INT), Tyrese Maxey (USA), and Cade Cunningham (USA). This leaves seven openings in both Conferences, three openings for international players, and 11 spots for Americans.

The Reserves - Western Conference

A quick note. The reserves will be announced Sunday evening. I’ll be using True Shooting Percentage (TS%) to highlight players’ efficiency. Basically, multiply the percentage by two, and that’s points per true shot attempt. The league average is 58%, so 1.16 points per true shot.

Kawhi Leonard (USA)

Kawhi Leonard, in a world without Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Nikola Jokic, would firmly be in the MVP race this season. He’s averaging a career high 27.7 points per game on a career best 62.8% true shooting percentage (TS%), while still bringing his customary excellence on defense. There’s an argument that this is his best offensive season, even if I wouldn’t make it. The Clippers might have started 6-21, but they’ve sprinted to 22-25 thanks to Leonard averaging 30.5 points per game on a 65.1% TS% since that porous start.

Anthony Edwards (USA)

Of all the players not voted a starter, Edwards probably has the most legitimate gripe. He’s averaging 29.3 points per game (6th) on a 62.3% TS%, while leading the Timberwolves to a 30-19 record and +4.9 net rating. Throw in how beloved he is, and the only reason he wasn’t a starter is that the Western Conference is absolutely loaded with high-end talent.

Deni Avdija (INT)

Deni Avdija’s breakout happened halfway through last season when the Trail Blazers decided to give him the ball, move out of the way, and let him incessantly bulldoze his way to the rim. Avdija’s style probably isn’t for everyone, but it is highly effective. He’s averaging 25.5 points, 7.2 rebounds, and 6.7 assists per game on a TS% of 61%. The only blemish is his 3.9 turnovers per game, but that’s the cost of being in the star business.

Alperen Sengun (INT)

Statistically, Alperen Sengun looks more like a borderline All-Star, but that ignores the structural realities he has to overcome. The Rockets have built a top-five offense around offensive rebounding and Sengun and Kevin Durant’s ability to generate shots in less-than-ideal surroundings. Everything they do is slow, methodical, and tightly packed by design, and Sengun is still averaging 21.1 points, 9.1 rebounds, and 6.3 assists per game on a 56% TS%.

Kevin Durant (USA)

Despite the surface-level statistics, Kevin Durant isn’t what he used to be. Fortunately for Kevin Durant, that still means he’s an absolute monster. For most people, averaging 26.5 points per game on 63.5% TS% and playing solid defense would constitute a career year, but for Durant, it’s just fathertime slowly chipping away at one of the all-time greats.

Jamal Murray (INT)

Jamal Murray being a zero-time All-Star is not that surprising. Before this season, he had maxed out at 21.4 points per game, is a known slow starter, and plays in the Western Conference. However, that changes this year. Murray is averaging 25.8 points and 7.4 assists per game on 62.3% TS%, all career-highs. On top of that, Murray led the Nuggets to a 10-6 record in their month without Jokic.

Chet Holmgren (USA)

Holmgren’s case is pretty simple. He’s the best defensive player on the best defensive team, while averaging 17.8 points per game on 66% TS%. Throw in the fact that he’s a real floor spacer and can play power forward as well as center, and you have one of the most valuable players in the league. The Thunder have been able to weather a slew of injuries not just because of SGA’s brilliance, but because of Chet’s malleability.

With Apologies - Western Conference

James Harden (USA)

In the East, Harden would be an easy All-Star. Unfortunately, in the West, 25.4 points and 8.1 assists per game on a TS% of 59.8% from a guard just isn’t quite enough. Of the apologies cohort, he’s the one I’d most aggressively push in.

LeBron James (USA)

While 21.9 points, 6.6 assists, and 5.8 rebounds per game are clear steps back for LeBron, they’re insane figures for a 41-year-old with 23 seasons of NBA miles on his legs. LeBron has missed too much time and just isn’t at a level anymore where you can ignore that.

Zion Williamson (USA)

The Pelicans may suck, but Zion Williamson is having a strong offensive season. He’s averaging 21.7 points, 6.1 rebounds, and 3.4 assists per game on 62.8% TS%. Those aren’t All-Star numbers for a guy on one of the worst teams in the league, but they’re awfully close.

Julius Randle (USA)

After a blistering start, Randle has cooled off a bit, but 22.3 points, 6.9 rebounds, and 5.4 assists per game on 60.1% TS% doesn’t exactly grow on trees. Randle isn’t my favorite type of player, but he plays a ton of minutes and plays well.

Lauri Markkanen (INT)

Markkanen’s offensive production should have him in the All-Star game. 27.4 points per game on a TS% of 61.3% is elite. Unfortunately, Markkanen is from Finland, which isn’t America, and if you’re keeping track, I’ve already selected eight foreign-born players.

The Reserves - Eastern Conference

Donovan Mitchell (USA)

Personally, I think Mitchell should have been one of the five Eastern Conference All-Star “starters.” He has been better than both of the Ja(y)lens, but he’s in no danger of missing the game because 29.1 points and 5.8 assists per game on a TS% of 61.8% is undeniable. If the Cavaliers weren’t having a disappointing season, he’d be in the MVP conversation, but they are, and his All-Star candidacy has taken a slight hit.

Michael Porter Jr (USA)

Michael Porter Jr has had an incredible season. He has shouldered a massive spike in usage to a career-high figure of 30.6%, and maintained his career TS% of 61.8%. The end result has been a career-best 25.6 points per game, and he has singlehandedly kept the Nets’ offense respectable.

Jalen Johnson (USA)

The Hawks were comfortable moving on from Trae Young because of Jalen Johnson’s emergence. He’s averaging 23.1 points, 10.5 rebounds, and 8.0 assists per game on 59% TS%, and looks to be a current and future star. The Hawks have been disappointing, but Johnson has been a revelation, and he’d be an All-Star in the West.

Scottie Barnes (USA)

We’re officially in the “probably not an All-Star in the West” category of player. Barnes has blossomed into one of the best all-around defensive players in the league and should be firmly in the Defensive Player of the Year conversation. While the defense is the carrying trait, his offense ain’t half bad either. 19.4 points, 8.3 rebounds, and 5.6 assists per game on a 57.6% TS% is more than you usually get from a defensive stud.

LaMelo Ball (USA)

Statistically, LaMelo Ball has had better seasons than the 19 points and 7.6 assists per game on a TS% of 53.9% he’s currently producing, but the Hornets completely fall off a cliff without him. His on/off net rating of +8.3 ranks 20th in the league, and is 12th among non-role players. He has had an All-Star-level impact, and that was allegedly the reason he didn’t make the All-Star team last season.

Jalen Duren (USA)

Duren has established himself as one of the best young centers in the league and is likely a future fixture for Team USA. Only 22-years-old, Duren is averaging 18 points and 10.7 rebounds per game on 66.6% TS% and has helped propel the Pistons to the second-best record in the league. While he still needs to improve on the defensive end to reach his ceiling, the All-Star game is about offense.

Derrick White (USA)

Derrick White is having an awful shooting season by his standards, but his excellent defense and elite turnover suppression make him integral to the Celtics’ attack. 17.2 points and 5.4 assists per game aren’t what All-Star guards are made of, but White’s impact on winning remains elite.

With Fewer Apologies - Eastern Conference

Josh Giddey (INT)

18.6 points, 8.8 assists, and 8.6 rebounds per game are great. But the Bulls are worse with Giddey on the court, and there are far more deserving international players. If there weren’t a foreign quota, Giddey would maybe have a chance.

Franz Wagner (INT)

Franz has been great this season, 22.2 points, 6.1 rebounds, and 3.6 assists per game on 59.3% TS%. Unfortunately, he has only played in 26 games and been the ninth-best international player.

Evan Mobley (USA)

Evan Mobley has had a strong season, but he has backslid on both offense and defense. 17.9 points, 8.8 rebounds, and 4.0 assists per game is fantastic from the reigning Defensive Player of the Year, but it’s just not quite good enough.

Norman Powell (USA)

Norm Powell is having a career year. Despite only averaging 30.7 minutes a game, he’s averaging a career high 23 points per game on a TS% of 61.2%. The biggest problem for Powell is that he doesn’t do much outside of scoring, and All-Stars need to be a bit more all-action.

For any inquiries about work, discussion, and the like, you can email me at nevin.l.brown@gmail.com.