All that Glisters in Golden State
Have the Warriors struck gold with Jimmy Butler?
All that glisters is not gold—
Often have you heard that told.
The Golden State Warriors trade deadline day acquisition of Jimmy Butler has played out like a dream. Through seven games, Butler is averaging 18.0 points, 6.0 rebounds, and 5.4 assists as the Warriors storm to a 6-1 record and a +17.5 net rating. In one fell swoop, the Warriors transformed from thoroughly mediocre to an unstoppable juggernaut and have given their championship aspirations a life-triggering jolt.
There was never any question if Jimmy Butler would make the Warriors better. In 25, shall we say, “eventful” games with the Heat this season, he posted an offensive BPM (OBPM) of 4.1 and a 4.9 figure throughout his five-and-a-half season Miami tenure. For context, a 4.1 OBPM would rank 16th in the league this season and is in line with what Tyler Herro, Anthony Edwards, and Domantas Sabonis have managed. And this speaks nothing of Butler’s defense, which remains excellent, even if he’s lost much of his point-of-attack prowess.
Swapping Andrew Wiggins and Kyle Anderson, two solid role players, for Butler on the wing, a true two-way star, has reapplied the luster that once emanated from the Warriors. This is now a side to be reckoned with. A team to be feared. The sheen that was lost has returned. However, obscured by this newfound glitter, is the question of the truth. Has Jimmy Butler truly transmuted the Warriors into a golden state?
Many a man his life hath sold
But my outside to behold.
Paper Warriors
The shape of Butler’s production always made him a fascinating fit in Golden State. Despite Stephen Curry’s best efforts, the Warriors' offense had been miserable this season. Over their first 51 games, their offensive rating of 112.3 was below the league average of 113.9 and would see them tied for 20th if not for their recent uptick. The two biggest issues the Warriors faced were poor shooting from the field (eFG% of 52.8%) and an inability to draw free throws (FTAr of .223).
Butler isn’t a hyper-efficient scorer from the field—his eFG% was 3% below league average while in Miami—but he is a master at drawing free throws. His adjusted FTAr of 238 (100 signifies league average) with the Heat was an incredible 138% better than the league average. Butler’s insatiable desire to get to the line, combined with excellent free throw shooting, is how he can be somewhat inefficient from the field but still be a wildly efficient scorer overall.
Unlike in prior years, the Warriors do not have a turnover problem. Their 12.2% offensive TOV% prior to Butler’s arrival was better than the league average and would be their best full-season mark since 2007-08. However, you can never have too few turnovers, and Butler, considering his offensive role, is a master at protecting the ball. While with Miami, his combination of a 9.9% TOV%, 25.2% usage rate, and 27.6% assist percentage was sublime. Since 1967-68, there have only been 33 individual seasons where a player has eclipsed a 25% usage and assist percentage while sporting a sub-10% turnover rate.
The introduction of Butler, on paper, should have addressed at least one of the Warriors’ key offensive concerns, while also improving them in the critical area of turnover rate. From a schematic standpoint, there were real worries over his lack of 3-point gravity, but those are problems to consider if your offense is already elite. It’s better to be a good offense with flaws than simply a flawed offense. However, offense is only one side of the ball.
This fact usually gets lost in a Steph Curry-induced hue, but the Warriors’ greatest strength in recent years has been their defense, and the 2024-25 season has been no different. Prior to Butler’s arrival, they sported a defensive rating of 112.3, a top-ten mark, but their defensive success was built around possessing no weaknesses, despite harboring no strengths.
The Warriors’ defense, while effective, was playing a dangerous game. Without a true standout trait to hang their hat on, their defense was far more vulnerable to variance. A hot shooting night, a sure-handed point guard, a wrecking ball on the interior, or a trigger-happy referee could singlehandedly drag their unit into mediocrity or worse. Take the Oklahoma City Thunder as a counterexample. Their defense is miles ahead of the pack because they’re the best at limiting opponent shot-making and forcing turnovers. Their strengths are so pronounced it doesn’t matter that they’re in the bottom third in defensive rebounding and sending teams to the foul line.
Jimmy Butler isn’t the point-of-attack guard dog he once was, but he has always been an excellent defensive playmaker and, despite middling rebounding numbers, has had a noticeable impact on his team’s defensive rebounding rate. Due to where the Warriors stand defensively, a moderate nudge forward in any category would give them a trait to hang their hat on, and that’s exactly what Butler has done.
Gilded tombs do worms enfold.
Had you been as wise as bold
Jimmy Eat World
Through seven games, Jimmy Butler has completely transformed the Warriors into a universe-gobbling diety. Their offense has improved by ten points and their defense by over seven points per 100 possessions. In nearly every offensive category, they’ve seen an uptick, and their defense has made positive tradeoffs to become more dynamic.
The Warriors’ improvement in FTAr, TOV%, and eFG% aren’t all that surprising. As noted before, Butler is a free throw and turnover god, and his ability to generate offense for himself and others should have been expected to help their efficiency. However, the Warriors’ most sizeable increase has been offensive rebounding, despite not starting a center for most of this run.
With Butler on the court this season, the Warriors have posted an excellent 32% offensive rebound rate (ORB%), and he is chipping in with a career-best 10.8% ORB%. However, as you can see with the Warriors’ 31.9% ORB% since Butler’s arrival, they’ve barely missed a beat when he hits the pine, and that’s all down to Kevon Looney. Looney has an outrageous 18.2 ORB% on the season, and the Warriors have a 31.8% ORB% with him on the court. Now, instead of 16 minutes of elite rebounding, they are getting 40 to 48.
Defensively, the figure that stands out the most is the Warriors’ 18% TOV%. Over a full season, that’d be the best figure in the league and is utterly game-breaking. A turnover is the best outcome for a defense. A shot can go in, a missed shot can be collected, and fouls lead to points immediately or down the line, but turnovers guarantee zero points, and a few extra can add up quickly.
Over the Warriors’ first 51 games, they averaged 15 opponent turnovers and allowed 112 points per game. Over the past seven games, they’ve increased their opponent turnovers per game to 20 and cut their points allowed to 105. The league average true shooting percentage of 57.4% suggests that any given shot is worth 1.148 points and the league league average ORB% of 25% means every four shots leads to a fifth. Adding five additional turnovers erases five shots plus the 1.25 extra shots you’d expect from offensive rebounds. 6.25 multiplied by 1.148 is 7.175 points, almost identical to the Warriors’ defensive improvement.
The combination of vast improvements on the offensive glass and forcing turnovers has given the Warriors an almost insurmountable edge in the battle for shot attempts. Over the Warriors’ first 51 games, they averaged a +3 per game edge in shot attempts, but over their ensuing seven, it has exploded to +10.5, and Jimmy Butler’s fingerprints are all over it.
Young in limbs, in judgment old,
Your answer had not been inscrolled
All that Glisters is not Gold
The Jimmy Butler era has blasted the Warriors back into the championship conversation. Bad teams don’t just randomly bludgeon the opposition like the Warriors have, Steph Curry is still a top-15 player, Butler is in that conversation as well, and Draymond Green remains one of the very best defenders in the league. Those ingredients alone suggest this stretch is somewhat real. However, there are a few questions about the sustainability of it all.
The most obvious caveat to the Warriors’ third assembly of the Death Star has been the quality of their opposition. They’ve beaten two full-strength teams in the Bulls and Kings, then split two games with the Mavericks minus Anthony Davis, Daniel Gafford, and Derek Lively, and beat the Bucks without Giannis Antetokounmpo, the Rockets without Fred VanVleet, and the Hornets without LaMelo Ball. This isn’t a seven-game run against the lowly Wizards, but it’s at least 13 blocks from murderers’ row.
Great teams absolutely blast bad teams, but great teams also handle their business against the best. Until the Warriors face a whole contender, it’s hard to gauge their championship bonafides. According to Tankathon, the Warriors have the 20th most difficult strength of schedule over the remainder of the season, and while that will allow them to shoot up the standings, it probably won’t fully answer this particular question.
The next question is the sustainability of everything they’re doing. I have no doubt that the Warriors will continue to be better at generating free throws, avoiding turnovers, crashing the glass, and forcing opponents into mistakes, but just how much better will be key. It’s safe to assume they won’t continue to force an opponent turnover rate of 18%, and I’d be willing to bet their offensive rebounding rate comes down from 31.9%. The Thunder lead the league in forcing turnovers at 15.6% and the Rockets are first in offensive rebounding at 31.3%. If the Warriors end up leading the league in those categories over the remainder of the season they’ll still see a downtick, and if they slide to fifth in those measures, 14.1% TOV% and 27.3% ORB%, that’ll take a serious chunk out of the all-important possession battle.
The final question is what will the Warriors do about their spacing when Jonathan Kuminga returns. I’ll be honest, I thought the Warriors were going to trade Kuminga when they traded for and extended Butler. He’s functionally a worse version of Butler, and it seems untenable to play him, Butler, and Draymond Green together as they’re all below-average 3-point shooters. Kuminga is talented, but his reintroduction could tip their offensive ecosystem over the edge.
Even though the Warriors’ offense has been humming with Butler, they are only shooting 34% from three, and their eFG% of 54.3%, while better than the league average of 54%, would rank 16th in the league. Teams use the offensive glass to boost offense, but it isn’t a panacea. The Warriors must be at least a league-average shot-making team to maintain an elite offensive rating.
Jimmy Butler has changed the Warriors for the better. They feature a more diverse offensive attack and are more dynamic on defense. They present more problems and have more solutions. The shine is real. But to win a title, you must be blindingly bright.
Fare you well. Your suit is cold—
— William Shakespeare, Merchant of Venice
For any inquiries about work, discussion, and the like, you can email me at nevin.l.brown@gmail.com.