Are Jaylen Brown and the Celtics Getting Jobbed by the Referees?

Since he won’t let it die, let’s investigate

In January, following a 100-95 loss to the San Antonio Spurs, Jaylen Brown proclaimed, “I hope somebody can just pull up the clips, because it’s the same shit every time we play a good team. It’s, like, they refuse to make a call.” Now, this came after Brown attempted exactly zero free throws. So you can understand his frustration. However, suggesting there is a conspiracy against the Celtics, exclusively when they play good teams, is the type of tinfoil hat stuff you expect from Kyrie Irving or Pete Maravich. But then last night happened.

Late in the second quarter, with the Celtics leading 51-49 against the Spurs, Jaylen Brown lost control of the ball while trying to accentuate contact to draw a foul. Could a marginal foul have been called on Stephon Castle? Absolutely, but due to Brown losing control of the ball out of bounds, it was a damned if you do, damned if you don’t situation. And the referee’s decision to side with Castle temporarily broke Brown’s brain.

As the video shows, Brown is given the chance to vent to the referee, goes back for more, and gets a technical foul. That’s generally the natural order of things, and it’s usually where things end. However, that set him off even more, and he stormed at the referee again, necessitating that his teammates hold him back. Watching all of this unfold, a different referee hit Brown with his second technical and an automatic ejection.

I understand if you think this ejection was soft, but Brown basically committed two auto-technicals in a span of 30 seconds. When a referee gives you a chance to voice your displeasure, then says, “We’re done,” if you bark back, you get T’d. If you angrily storm and yell at the ref, that’s also an auto-T. But Brown wasn’t just done yet.

Minutes later, from the locker room, Brown Tweeted, “This the shit I be talking about,” almost assuredly referencing his previous outburst about the referee’s agenda against the Boston Celtics and himself. Since I legitimately find Brown to be an annoying tryhard, I am going to match his energy and see if his complaints have any merit.

Do the Referees Have an Agenda Against Jaylen Brown?

To start, I’ll focus on Jaylen Brown’s free throw attempts. Why, you might ask. Well, in the two games Brown has faced the Spurs, he has exactly zero free throw attempts, which is two fewer than the number of referee outbursts those contests have produced. I don’t think I’m going out on a limb in saying that there is a connection between his lack of free throws and the subsequent grumbling about refereeing.

Instead of using free throw attempt rate (FTr) in this analysis, I’ll be using my own, super-duper metric called FT/2PAr. It’s calculated the same way as FTr, but instead of using all field goal attempts (FTA/FGA) as the denominator, it uses 2-point attempts (FTA/2PA). The rationale here is simple: 3-point attempts rarely lead to free throws, so knowing how many 2-point attempts gives us a much better idea of how many free throws would have been expected to occur.

First, Jaylen Brown is slightly below average at generating free throw attempts. His FT/2PAr of 0.435 this season is his highest since 2019-20, but it is below the league average of 0.454. This doesn’t make him a scrub, but it does indicate that he doesn’t have the traditional free throw grifting package that so many elite scorers possess. At the end of the day, getting to the line is a skill.

Second, good teams usually have good defenses, and good defenses generally don’t foul a ton. While the Pistons have bucked this trend, the Spurs, who incited these temper tantrums, have the second-lowest FT/2PAr in the league at 0.386. Since Brown isn’t an elite free throw generator in the first place, and the Spurs are excellent at limiting shooting fouls, it makes a ton of sense that two of Brown’s three zero free throw attempt games would come against San Antonio.

Now, let’s see if any part of Jaylen Brown’s conspiracy holds water. First, I wanted to see how many free throws you would have expected Brown to take if he were an average free throw generator based upon 2-point attempts. By multiplying his 2-point attempts by each opponent’s defensive FT/2PAr, if he were average at generating free throws, he’d have attempted 429.2 free throws this season, up from the 404 he has actually taken. Perhaps, he really has been jobbed out of 25 free throws, but considering he has played 58 games, and fouls result in two free throws, that means the referees have missed a single foul on him once every 4.64 games.

Based on the numbers, it doesn’t seem like Brown is really getting a worse whistle than he has earned overall, but what about against good teams? Since “good team” is unspecific and nebulous, I had to make a judgment call and decided “good team” meant any of the ten other teams with a net rating of +3.0 or better.

To determine if Brown has seen an unfair and malicious whistle against good teams, I calculated his expected free throws based on his FT/2PAr and his expected free throws based on his opponent’s FT/2PAr and averaged the two figures. In 20 games against good teams, Brown would have been expected to attempt 147.86 free throws, compared to his actual figure of 141. That equals out to basically three missed calls over the course of 20 games. However, if you just went by Brown’s expected free throw attempts based on his 0.435 FT/2PAr, he would have been expected to attempt 141.375 free throws, which is almost identical to his actual figure.

Statistically, there is essentially no evidence that Brown has seen an unfair whistle this season or, in particular, against good teams. There is evidence that he struggled mightily to get to the line against the Spurs and was not too happy about that. However, I know what you’re thinking: Brown was never talking about himself; he was always talking about his team, he’s a team-first guy, after all.

Do the Referees Have an Agenda Against the Celtics?

As it pertains to the Celtics, they do have the lowest team FT/2PAr at 0.376, and are the only team, along with the Sacramento Kings, to be below 0.400. Now, it shouldn’t shock you to learn that the Celtics and the Kings are 29th and 30th in field goal attempts zero to three feet from the basket. Simply put, the Celtics’ offense isn’t designed to generate free throws.

As a team, they take the fourth most mid-range jumpers and the most shots beyond ten feet, which means they take the fewest within ten feet. The correlation between shot location data and free throw attempts isn’t overwhelming, but more shots at the rim and fewer mid-range jumpers generally help.

Now, let’s see how the Celtics have done at the line against “the good teams.” In 21 games against “good teams,” Brown sat out one game against the Rockets, the Celtics, who have the league’s lowest FT/2PAr at 0.376, bested that figure in 15 games, and produced a FT/2PAr better than their opponent’s season average in 12.

If there is any conspiracy, it’s that the referees are helping the Celtics against good teams. Their FT/2PAr shoots up to 0.432, which would rank 22nd in the league this season, as opposed to their current last-place ranking. I’m not suggesting that referees are helping the Celtics in the slightest, but it is funny just how out of line Brown’s assertions are with reality.

The data doesn’t lie. The Celtics and Jaylen Brown have not faced a suspicious whistle. They’re just a low free throw team, led by a mediocre free throw generating star. But we all already knew this. Jaylen Brown isn’t the first, nor will he be the last, professional athlete to blame the referees for their own shortcomings.

For any inquiries about work, discussion, and the like, you can email me at nevin.l.brown@gmail.com.