Can Dyson Daniels Steal the DPOY?
Dyson Daniels is racking up steals at an incredible rate, but does that make him the Defensive Player of the Year?
Sometimes, if you want something bad enough, you’ve got to take it. And when that something might not belong to you, it might technically be stealing, but that’s all semantics. Dyson Daniels, in his third season, has taken his starting opportunity in Atlanta and run with it, or perhaps more fittingly, he has stolen it. Regardless of legality, Daniels’ exploits have him squarely in the Defensive Player of the Year race.
The key for Daniels is his deft hands. Sure, he’s averaging a career-high 14.2 points per game on a career-best effective field goal percentage of 53.7%, but those pale in comparison to what he’s doing to opposing ball handlers and passing lanes. His 3.1 steals per game lead the league by a comical margin. Cason Wallace, the league’s second most proficient pickpocket, is averaging a paltry 1.8 steals per game, and the difference between Daniels and Wallace of 1.3 steals per game is the same as the difference between Wallace and Andre Jackson Jr, who ranks 193rd in steals per game.
Daniels doesn’t just have sticky hands. He’s wreaking havoc on the court. His 5.9 deflections per game lap the field and indicates he has earned his steals the way Danny Ocean earned that vault’s money or the Artful Dodger earned the contents of an unsuspecting mark’s pockets. This is a master at his craft, and the volume at which Daniels has plundered hasn’t been seen in decades.
Should Daniels be able to maintain his 3.1 steals per game average over the final few weeks of the season, it will be the first +3.0 steals per game season since 1993-94 when Nate McMillan averaged 3.0. His 5.9 deflections per season are also the highest on record, but that only dates back to the 2016-17 season. Needless to say, we’re witnessing history, and his exploits have earned the Australian native the nickname “The Great Barrier Theif”. While it’s a clever nickname and better than most, I’d prefer a play on the Artful Dodger, who was sent to an Australian penal colony as punishment for stealing a snuff box. Sure, he’s a fictional character, but legendary feats deserve tall tales.
The case for Daniels as Defensive Player of the Year (DPOY) is simple. He’s the best we’ve seen at stealing in decades, and steals are the most valuable defensive action. They guarantee zero points for the opponent, and they’re the only defensive action that routinely leads to efficient offense. He’s having his cake and your cake and snatching a Butterfinger from a baby for good measure. However, he has an uphill climb to land the award.
The NBA DPOY is a big man’s award. Since 1983, there have been a total of 42 DPOYs awarded, with a center winning the award 26 times, a 62% win rate. In fact, if you remove the first six voting cycles that saw a shooting guard win five times (something that hasn’t happened since for good reason), centers account for 25 of the 36 winners, followed by small forward with five, power forward with four, and point guard with two. If Daniels were to win, he would be the first shooting guard to win DPOY since Michael Jordan in 1987-88.
The reason why DPOY has shifted away from the perimeter is the same reason why Daniels will have a difficult time winning the award. Simply put, the rim is the most prized real estate on the court. The league average field goal percentage on shots 0-3 feet from the rim is 69.6% (1.39 points per attempt). Nowhere else on the court does it even approach 50%, and while the league average 3-point percentage is 36% (1.08 points per attempt), having a defensive anchor at the basket still guards the most valuable area and gives teams the license to zealously defend the 3-point line.
The backbone of elite NBA defense is limiting attempts near the basket. Whether that’s through an elite rim protector that erases shots at the rim or lockdown defenders preventing it in the first place, defending the basket is how defenses thrive. And while Daniels’ pestering hands are an annoyance on the perimeter, it hasn’t exactly led to high-level defense.
According to PBP Stats, with Daniels on the court, the Hawks own a defensive rating of 116.28. With him off the court, their defensive rating improves to 114.81. Now, Daniels plays next to Trae Young, perhaps the worst defender in the league, but it’s not entirely clear he’s dragging those figures down. With Young and Daniels on the court, the Hawks have a defensive rating of 116.14, and with just Daniels on the court, their defensive rating is 116.64. And without either Young or Daniels on the court, the Hawks have a defensive rating of 108.24. There are some slight differences in opponent 3-point shooting weighing the Daniels’ minutes down, but nothing staggering, and he might be a small part of the problem.
For all the steals and deflections that Daniels racks up, his defensive impact in other areas is wanting. According to NBA tracking data, Daniels contests 15.0 shots per game and has allowed a 49.2% field goal percentage, which is 2.1% higher than expected. The game’s best rim protectors, like Walker Kessler, Victor Wembanyama, and Ivica Zubac, will run defended field goal percentages at least 3% lower than expected. In addition to his unimpressive shot contests, with Daniels on the court, opponents have shot significantly better on 2-point attempts (57.2% to 53.6%) and attempted more shots at the rim (29.9% to 28.8%). I’m not going to pretend that the Hawks have excellent defenders all throughout their roster, but the trio of Daniels, Zaccharie Risacher, and Onyeka Okongwu have played 684 minutes together with a defensive rating of 119.77.
This isn’t to take away anything from what Daniels has accomplished, but rather, it’s to contextualize the value of his defensive contributions. Running away with the league lead in deflections and steals is fantastic and provides real value; it just doesn’t do nearly as much for a defense as sticking a gigantic guy next to the basket. The sad truth is that perimeter players almost never deserve to win DPOY, and if they do, it’s because they provide some form of rim protection.
True to his game, if Dyson Daniels wins DPOY, it will be the greatest steal of the season. His growth has been amazing to watch, and he’s a master at his craft, but that craft on its own doesn’t lead to a lockdown team defense. One great defensive big is worth two or three strong perimeter defenders, and there’s a real question if Daniels is actually a set it and forget it defender. Daniels is the best in the world at stealing, but the best thief in the land is usually not the one robbing everyone blind.
For any inquiries about work, discussion, and the like, you can email me at nevin.l.brown@gmail.com.