Early Season Surprises: Player Edition
Ten players who have popped to start the season
Everyone loves a pleasant surprise, and nothing is better at providing them than small samples. Given a tiny enough sliver of information, anything is possible, which makes the early portion of the season so much fun. Our utter lack of information is pure bliss. The Cavaliers are undefeated, the Nets and Bulls are frisky, and half the league is having a career year. Yes, the mechanical grind of regression will inevitably ravish the virgin season, but instead of pondering empirical sustainability, I’m going to bask in the warm glow of early-season ignorance.
I have highlighted ten players who have gotten off to tremendous starts. Will it last? Who cares. They’re playing excellent basketball right now and deserve their flowers. I originally selected twelve players, but Tyler Herro and Darius Garland, while playing excellently, have already shown they’re capable of playing at a very high level.
Tari Eason
If you’re a general basketball fan, you may not have heard of Tari Eason. If you’re a degenerate, you’re fist-pumping right now. Eason is an absolute monster. His basic box score stats of 12.2 points, 5.6 rebounds, and 1.3 assists in 22.9 minutes per game don’t blow you away, but his 1.8 steals and 1.2 blocks should. This young man is an analytics darling because he can single-handedly win you the possession battle. His 7.7 Box Plus/Minus (BPM) ranks sixth in the league, and his +17.3 on/off net rating ranks in the top 20. Per 100 possessions, he provides the Rockets with +6.3 extra offensive possessions when you add his offensive rebounds and steals and subtract his turnovers. Out of the 294 players to log 100 or more minutes, that figure ranks fourth and is first among players to play 200 minutes or more. Eason is a massive reason the Rockets have gotten off to an 8-4 start, and he shouldn’t stay hidden for long.
Caris LeVert
Caris LeVert might be playing the fewest minutes of his career, but he’s absolutely thriving. In 23.5 minutes per game off the bench, LeVert is shooting a career-best 45% from three while sporting a 4.8:1 assist-to-turnover ratio. Those numbers alone would make him the league’s best backup point guard, but this is a 6’6 shooting guard with a 2.4% steal percentage and 2.5% block percentage. For context, only 20 players eclipsed 2% in both categories last season. The Cavaliers’ undefeated start has been a team effort, but LeVert’s excellence has been massive. His 5.6 BPM and +21.5 on/off net rating are absurd, but his ability to be a point 3-and-D wing has been a game-changer for the best team of the early season.
Buddy Hield
The Warriors have been the biggest surprise of the season. Coming off a 45-win season, the Warriors looked like they would be fighting to make the play-in again. Stephen Curry and Draymond Green are a year older, they lost Klay Thompson in free agency, and apparently, Steve Kerr lost his coaching acumen because he benched Jayson Tatum a few times in the Olympics as Team USA went undefeated to win the gold medal. Instead, the Warriors are a significantly better team, going 9-2 with a net rating of +11.0, and Buddy Hield has been an irreplaceable cog in their early season wins machine. Hield hasn’t unlocked anything new, but he’s doing everything at a higher level. He’s shooting 46.7% from three on 8.2 attempts per game to the tune of 17.6 points per game and has been the perfect Klay Thompson replacement. As much as the Warriors have been associated with the three-ball, most of their long-range prowess came from the two-headed monster of Curry and Klay. With Hield filling the off-ball shooter role, the Warriors haven’t missed a beat, and Hield has legitimately been an upgrade over the current version of Thompson. Sure, Hield is a one-trick pony, but who cares when the trick is working this well? Kings owner Vivek Ranadive said Hield had, “Steph Curry potential,” and while that was a tad optimistic, it’s fun to see Chef Curry cooking with a side of madras lentils.
Norman Powell
Stormin’ Norman Colonel Powell has been lighting up defenses for years, but his start to the season has been blazing hot. He’s averaging a career-best 24.9 points per game on 49.5% 3-point shooting and has kept the Clippers offense afloat. With Kawhi Leonard’s return a mystery even Sherlock Holmes couldn’t solve, the Clippers need Powell’s offense like the Intuit Dome needs toilets. With Powell on the court, the Clippers have a respectable 116.6 offensive rating, but that figure submerges to 101.5 with him on the bench, according to PBPStats. Ty Lue is a magician, but even he can’t conjure points out of thin air. The Clippers have the roster to be a stingy defense, but their offense is currently pray James Harden and Powell have it. So far, it’s been working well enough to keep them in the play-in hunt. Powell has raised the Clippers’ offensive floor from dreadful to acceptable, and he’d deserve some down-ballot MVP votes if the season ended today.
Nikola Vučević
The Bulls are at it again. Even as the franchise made strides to enter a rebuild they’re sitting in sixth place in the Eastern Conference at 5-7. Their conference seeding tells you everything you need to know about the state of the East, but their 5-7 record has them firmly in play-in contention, and Nikola Vučević’s resurgence has been a big part of their undying quest to be the ten seed. Vučević is averaging 20.7 points and 10.2 rebounds per game on an effective field goal percentage of 65.5%. His incredible 3-point shooting, 44.9% has been a massive factor, but he’s also converting 64.8% of his shots within the arc. Pick a spot on the court, and Vuč has been lights out. Yes, he might be the worst defensive center in the league, but he has been an automatic bucket all season. The Bulls are still a bad team, but the East has been so awful they might bumble their way into the playoffs anyhow. The trade for Vučević was a bad decision, but he’s legitimately one of the more talented offensive bigs in the league, and he’s reminding everyone what he’s capable of. His defensive limitations and contract won’t make him a trade target, but as long as he’s burning holes through the net, he’ll make the Bulls a fun watch.
Aaron Wiggins
Outside of the Thunder’s big three of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jalen Williams, and Chet Holmgren, Aaron Wiggins has been their next-best offensive contributor. Wiggin’s basic box score stats of 10.2 points, 4.1 rebounds, and 2.3 assists per game aren’t eye-catching, but his efficiency is. 45.2% 3-point shooting works anywhere, and so does an assist-to-turnover ratio of 3.1:1. Wiggins has also sneakily been the Thunder’s best offensive rebounder, with his 6.5% offensive rebound rate leading the team among players who have logged 100 or more minutes. For a tertiary player to pop they have to make a killing on the margins, and that’s exactly what Wiggins has done. Over the past eight games he has seen his minutes increase to 23.7 per game, while shooting 51.5% from three. The Thunder will be without a real center for the next few weeks, and Wiggins’ sneaky good play will be paramount in weathering the storm.
Dennis Schröder
Entering the season, the Nets were widely seen as the worst team in the league, but a 5-7 start has put those accusations to bed, and Dennis Schröder has been the man behind the curtain. Schröder has always been capable of setting an offense up, but his subpar 3-point shot always held him back from being a significant value-add. However, this season, he’s shooting 46.2% on threes and averaging 19.3 points and 5.9 assists per game. And his impact goes far beyond the box score. His on/off net rating is an incredible +15.5, and their offense improves from a miserable 104.7 to a strong 118.1 with him on the court. If it wasn’t for der Kaiser, the Nets would probably be about as bad as Vegas predicted. As long as Schröder keeps playing at this level, the Nets will be a threat to make the play-in in the East.
Bennedict Mathurin
Bennedict Mathurin has had an up-and-down start to his career. He averaged 17.2 points per game before the All-Star break of his rookie season before falling off the pace and averaging 14.9 the rest of the way. His second season saw him battle injury and a reduced role as the Pacers pushed to join the elites of the Eastern Conference. Entering his third season, Mathurin had a lot to prove and prove he has. Over the first four games of the season, Mathurin averaged 12.3 points and 21.5 minutes per game coming off the bench. His efficiency was solid, but it wasn’t until the Pacers’ insane overtime win over the Celtics that Rick Carlise unleashed the third-year wing. Mathurin dropped 30 points on the defending champs and earned himself a starting role as injuries decimated the Pacers’ wing and guard rotation. Including the Celtics game, Mathurin has averaged 24.0 points and 36.1 minutes per game on 52.4% shooting from the field and 50% shooting from three over his past seven games. His defense is still an adventure, but Mathurin is proving to be one of the league’s most dynamic young wing scorers. While his 50% 3-point shooting is certainly helping, he’s still converting over 50% of his twos and getting to the line 7.6 times per game where he is converting at an 84.9% clip. Until Tyrese Haliburton rediscovers his form, the Pacers need Mathurin’s instant offense to keep them afloat. If and when Haliburton gets rolling, the Pacers’ offense should jump right back to the top of the league, but instead of being a passenger, Mathurin might just be riding shotgun.
Scotty Pippen Jr.
When Scotty Pippen Jr. logged his first career triple-double on November 8th, the NBA world erroneously claimed he and his father, Scotty Pippen, were the first father-son duo to record triple-doubles. To my knowledge, it was the third instance after Dolph and Danny Schayes and Winston and Darius Garland. Despite the general lack of fact-checking in the modern media landscape, Pippen Jr. has been a revelation for the Grizzlies. He’s averaging 12.3 points, 6.2 assists, and 4.1 rebounds per game on a 57.9% effective field goal percentage. The Grizzlies have needed every bit of Pippen’s production as Marcus Smart, Ja Morant, and Desmond Bane have all already missed time. With Pippen on the court, the Grizzlies have produced a +2.2 net rating, and while that’s a significant step back from Ja Morant’s +14.0, it’s enough to keep the Grizzlies’ heads above water. With Morant deemed week-to-week due to a hip injury, Pippen has been thrust into the starting lineup. Thus far, they’ve gone 2-1 with blowout wins over the Wizards and Trail Blazers and a close loss to the Lakers on the road. As long as Pippen can keep the Grizzlies competitive against playoff teams and dominant against the dredges, he’ll earn the Tyus Jones Memorial trophy for best backup point guard in the league.
Gradey Dick
Last but not least, we get to Gradey Dick. The Raptors have been pretty awful, but Dick’s impressive start has to be a shot in the arm for the fan base. The second-year guard is averaging 20.1 points per game on a 53.3% effective field goal percentage and the Raptors have been +8.1 points per 100 possessions better with him on the court. Unlike most, if not all, of the players on this list, Dick isn’t getting to this level through positive shooting variance. His 37.3% 3-point shooting is a strong mark but nothing out of the ordinary for a player dubbed the best shooter in his draft class. In fact, Dick’s 45.9% shooting 0-3 feet from the basket and 26.7% shooting on corner threes suggests he could be in line for positive shooting regression. The Raptors aren’t going to compete for anything of note this season, but Dick’s emergence as a legitimate scoring threat could be what makes them an interesting team as soon as they get healthy. A lineup of Scottie Barnes, Immanuel Quickley, RJ Barrett, Dick, and a functional NBA center is a solid foundation to build from. That four-man lineup has played a total of zero minutes this season, but with Quickley and Barnes set to return in the coming weeks, the Raptors should make a push for the Eastern Conference play-in. Gradey Dick endured an awful rookie season, but he looks like a potential All-Star right now.
For any inquiries about work, discussion, and the like you can email me at nevin.l.brown@gmail.com.