Five NBA Things I May or May Not Like
Until Zach Lowe returns, it’s fair game
Since Zach Lowe’s dismissal, firing, cost-cutting maneuver from ESPN, there has been a giant 10 Things I Like hole in the heart of all NBA fans. To fill the void in my heart, I’ve decided to take on a portion of what Lowe brought to the community. These are five NBA things I’m thinking about.
The Lakers’ Defense
The Los Angeles Lakers, despite having Anthony Davis for exactly two games, have had the best defense in the NBA over the past 15 games. Their defensive rating of 107.2 has propelled them to a 12-3 record (they’re currently beating the Clippers) and is a seismic change from the 114.2 figure they managed over their first 43 contests.
Needless to say, it’s a bit curious that the Lakers suddenly became a defensive juggernaut as soon as they lost their best defensive player and then flipped him, along with Max Christie– a solid three-and-D wing in his own right–, for Luka Doncic, a guy whose former GM made sure to say, “Defense wins champions,” as he unceremoniously discarded him. So yeah, what gives?
Looking at the Lakers’ defensive four factors (eFG%, TOV%, DRB%, FT/FGA) tells an interesting story. Their TOV% remains basically unchanged (12.5% to 12.6%), their DRB% improved slightly (74.4% to 76.2%), and their FT/FGA ratio has increased dramatically (.160 to .210), which is a bad thing. However, their defensive eFG% has gone from 55% to 49.4%. When it comes to the four factors, all things aren’t being equal. Defensive eFG%, and to a lesser degree TOV%, is the king of defensive indicators.
The Lakers have utilized the bold strategy of conceding the 3-point line, packing the paint, and fouling the ever-living shit out of anyone dumb enough not to take the open three they’re begging them to take. But the thing is, it’s working. Opponents have shot 50.3% on twos, down from 55.4%, and 32.2% from three, down from 36.2%. This strategy won’t continue to bear such bountiful fruit when their opponents’ 3-point shooting regresses to the mean, but in the meantime, ESPN can now have multiple segments on whether JJ Reddick should be Coach of the Year. However, I do think the strategy is a good one.
If you’re a mediocre to bad defense, I think it’s a worthy gambit to pack the paint and have your defense live and die by 3-point variance. Good defenses haven’t really been able to figure out how to curtail 3-point efficiency, so why not try your best to muck up the interior? This strategy looks genius when it’s working and idiotic when it doesn’t, but it’s working right now.
The Tragic-Knee of EmBeth
If William Shakespeare lived today and was randomly from Philadelphia, he’d pen the most magnificent of tragedies about the Sixers’ Joel Embiid era. There’s nothing more compelling than hubris, ambition, and fate conspiring against a protagonist, and Embiid’s story fits the bill to a tee. His career contains multiple arcs, but the most recent one is the most saddening. The Sixers have shut Embiid down for the rest of the season as they try to determine the best course of action to solve what ails his balky knee. While surgery hasn’t been announced, it wouldn’t surprise me if he underwent a procedure in the next month that sidelines him for well over six months.
Nothing has gone right for the Sixers and Embiid this season, but that’s basically been the story of his career. He has undergone the hero’s journey multiple times only to come up short in his ultimate quest. And like all great Shakespearian tragedies, Embiid’s ego is at least partially to blame. He threw teammates under the bus in times of turmoil, played through an initial meniscus injury to chase arbitrary statistical thresholds, and then went to the Olympics even though that same surgically repaired knee was clearly causing him problems. It’s not Embiid’s fault he’s hurt again, but his ambition has been a double-edged sword throughout his career.
Blazing Trails
There are no moral victories in the NBA, but the Trail Blazers overtime loss to the Cavaliers is about as close as it comes. Sure, the Cavaliers didn’t have Donovan Mitchell, but they were at home and needed Ty Jerome to drop 25 points just to see this one out. The Blazers are a real basketball team, shit, the Blazers might be a good team, which feels like an absurd thing to write. Since January 14th, they’ve gone 14-6 and their six losses have come against the Thunder, Timberwolves, Nuggets (x2), Lakers, and Cavaliers. Their net rating of +7.2 is excellent and is enough of a cushion to soften the regression blow.
For a myriad of reasons, going to the opponent 3-point shooting well to explain divergences in team performance is tired, but here we are. Over the Blazers past 20 games, opponents are shooting 31.4% from three. But I don’t think that matters. Sure, 3-point regression will eat into the Blazers’ +7.2 net rating, but if there’s even a bite left, I’d call that a rousing success, especially when you look at who has been driving it.
The Blazers’ recent uptick has been an all-around effort. Anfernee Simons, Deni Avdija, Scoot Henderson, Shaedon Sharpe, Toumani Camara, Dalano Banton, and Donovan Clingan have all played well, but Jerami Grant, Robert Williams, and Deandre Ayton (due to missed time) have largely been passengers. It can be frustrating when a tanking team suddenly burns their lottery odds because veterans are soaking up all the minutes, but the Blazers have made a leap because of their young guys. With how well they’re playing, the play-in is not completely out of reach. I’d still back Dallas and Sacramento to hang on to their spots, but they’re without their All-Star centers.
Pacing Along
Coming off a run to the Eastern Conference Finals, you’d think the Pacers would be getting a bit more attention at 34-25. What makes the utter lack of fanfare even more ridiculous is that since December 9th, they’ve gone 24-10 with a net rating of +4.9, and they’re finally doing it on both sides of the ball. Their defensive rating of 112.7 ranks 11th over that span and their offensive rating of 117.6 ranks sixth. Are they going to upset the Cavaliers or Celtics? Probably not, but they’ve been substantially better than the Knicks since early December.
So why is it that the Pacers are afterthoughts even though they look like the front runners to finish fourth in the East and still have a shot at the three-seed? Well, they made the mistake of playing poorly at the start of the season (10-15) when people actually pay attention, and the Pistons having an equally impressive run filled the mid-season quota of paying attention to a midwestern team.
The Pacers are a dangerous team. They have two All-Stars in Pascal Siakam and Tyrese Haliburton, Myles Turner is as dangerous a stretch-five as they come non-Wembanyama division, and their wing and backcourt rotation is excellent. In fact, Haliburton’s revival, much like the Pacers’, has gone largely unnoticed. Since December 9th, he has averaged 19.9 points, 9.1 assists, and 1.5 turnovers on 50.2 // 42.8 // 86.7 shooting splits. So while his counting stats aren’t what they were last season, Haliburton has flourished in a lower usage role to accommodate Siakam’s consistent excellence.
Deflections and Data
NBA tracking data has been around for years, but far too little of it has any real meaning to the average fan. Do post and elbow touches matter? What makes a rebound contested? And what the hell is a miscellaneous playtype? The truth is, for all of this data to matter to the average viewer, it has to be grounded in a statistic they already know. Well, deflections, unsurprisingly, correlate very strongly to turnovers. This isn’t groundbreaking, but I think it’s a useful reminder that fans understand basketball statistics through the box score. The Thunder force a ton of turnovers because they get a ton of deflections.
Bonus: Cavaliers score bug
The Cleveland Cavaliers have had an exceptional season, but one area where they’ve failed is with their local broadcast score bug. There’s nothing visually wrong with it, but it contains “THE DIFF:”
What is THE DIFF:? It’s the difference in the Cavaliers’ score to their opponents’. I’m sorry, but math isn’t that hard, and if it is, you need all the practice you can get. I don’t know who said, “Let’s take up a random block of the court so people can fully shut their brains off,” but they need to be slapped across the face with a ruler. I’m not sure if other teams do this, but I hate it. Technology, contrary to popular belief, makes us dumber, and this is a shining example. Do the math, or you’ll end up like David Beckham.
