Five NBA Things I May or May Not Like: Clawing Back, East Play-In, Thunderstruck, Jokic Insanity, An Amen For DPOY
Zach Lowe is back with The Ringer, but I’ve decided to keep going until I’m confident he’s back in game shape. These are five NBA things I may or may not like from the past week or thereabouts.
Kawhi Leonard is Back
Per tradition, the Clippers are doing that thing where they look like a real playoff threat for 20 games only to collapse in the postseason like the Black Knight from Monty Python. Over their last 17 games, they’re 14-3 with an offensive rating of 122.7 and a defensive rating of 108.4 for a net rating of +14.3. However, this time, it’ll be different, Steve Ballmer screams into the void.
Why will it be different? Well, Kawhi Leonard is back, and maybe his body won’t explode in the first round. Over his past 16 games, he’s averaging 25.3 points per game on 57.7% shooting on twos and 42% on threes, and most crucially, he’s averaging 34.9 minutes per game. That’s vintage Kawhi, and if he can sustain it and stay healthy, the Clippers are a threat to beat anybody.
The Clippers, without Kawhi, established themselves as an elite defense, but a fully operational Claw takes this team from mediocre to elite. James Harden can still run a pick-and-roll with the best of them, Norm Powell is a bucket, Ivica Zubac is the best center no one talks about, Bogdan Bogdanovic has rediscovered his mojo, and Kris Dunn makes point of attack defense an art form. The Clippers are tough and deep and finally have the two-way star to anchor everything.
Hopefully, Kawhi can stay healthy throughout their playoff run. If he does, they could make some noise. While the Warriors and Lakers will likely claim the mantle of teams that no one wants to face, I think the Clippers are a step above.
The Saddest Play-In East of the Mississippi
I’ve hated the play-in since its inception. Sure, the games are fun, but all it does is cheapen the regular season. For instance, in the Western Conference, the seven and eight seeds will finish with at least 46 wins, while the nine and ten seeds need to win out to finish at or above .500. What the hell are we doing? Those teams don’t deserve a chance to make the playoffs, and the seven and eight seeds don’t deserve the threat of missing it. However, the West looks like the ‘96 Bulls compared to the East.
The Eastern Conference play-in race is simply pathetic. Orlando is the seventh seed at 38-40, Atlanta is eighth at 37-41, Chicago is 36-42 in ninth, and Miami is tenth at 35-43. The fact that these teams all got to play the Sixers, Raptors, Nets, Hornets, and Wizards more than twice and are still struggling to hit .500 is calamitous. None of these teams deserve to make the playoffs. Orlando is 16-4 this season against the Sixers, Nets, Hornets, Raptors, and Wizards, which means they’re 22-36 against everyone else, and they’re the best of the bunch.
The NBA shouldn’t reward this level of ineptitude. The play-in kind of makes sense if the teams in nine and ten are solid, but the Heat won’t even win 40 games. I know they need to promise broadcasters games 11 years in advance, but I think it would benefit the league if they made certain cut-offs. If the nine seed is more than five games behind the eight seed, they’re eliminated. If you’re below .500, boom, you’re eliminated. These teams don’t deserve any chance to make the postseason. The NBA playoffs already have too many teams, and the play-in just allows more garbage into the party.
Thunder Against the Best of the West
Even after back-to-back double-digit losses, the Oklahoma City Thunder are still the team to beat. However, despite their historic +12.5 net rating, their journey to the NBA Finals might not be smooth sailing. The Thunder are 28-10 against teams with a .500 or better record, which is the second-best win percentage in the league, but they’re 13-9 against the Nuggets, Warriors, Rockets, Lakers, Timberwolves, and Clippers. So if you’re checking the standings and doing the math, that means the Thunder are 15-1 against all other .500 or better teams outside of the Western Conference two through seven seeds.
Adding more intrigue, the Thunder are 4-0 against the Clippers, but Kawhi Leonard missed three of those contests, and the one he did play was a 103-101 Thunder victory. In their 22 games against the best of the West, they have an average margin of victory of +2.4, but that falls to +0.76 if you remove their four games against the Clippers. The Thunder have one more game against the Lakers to reasert their bonafides, but should they lose, the takes will get OUT OF FUCKING CONTROL. I mean like placing tariffs on every landmass out of control.
The Thunder should still be the overwhelming favorites in the West, but it wouldn’t be a surprise if they have to go the distance more than you would expect, and that may cost them in the end. The NBA playoffs are a grind, and getting to the Finals in as few games as possible is a huge advantage. If the Thunder’s struggles against the Western Conference playoff field are any indication, they may not quite be ready to take their spot atop the league. Or we could be reading way too much into the only blemish on their record.
Jokic’s Insane Lift
Nikola Jokic may not win MVP, but that’s not really about him; it’s about the Nuggets. The Nuggets have lost their last three games. In those losses, Jokic has averaged 45 points, 10.7 assists, and 12.3 rebounds on 62% shooting from the field and 44.8% shooting on 9.7 3-point attempts per game. In fact, the Nuggets are 4-6 this season in games where Jokic scores 40 or more points. The degree to which the Nuggets have wasted Jokic’s elite scoring performances is a shame and is probably the death blow in his pursuit of a fourth MVP.
This odd dichotomy of the Nuggets struggling when Jokic puts up massive scoring totals, which are usually highly efficient, has led to the old “turn him into a scorer” narrative. I’m incredibly dubious that this is actually a good strategy and is more a situation where people look at results and portend process. When the Nuggets are playing well, it means other guys are hitting shots, and when the other guys aren’t hitting shots, Jokic decides to do it himself. So, turning Jokic into a scorer just means the other Nuggets are struggling, but ideally, you don’t want someone dropping 45 points on a 70.3% effective field goal percentage.
The lift that Jokic has had this season is insane. When he has a +8 or better single game plus/minus the Nuggets are 32-0. Anything lower, they are 15-32, and they’re 5-16 if it’s +0 or lower. Basically, the Nuggets have no chance if the Jokic minutes aren’t a huge net positive, but they’re damn near unbeatable when they are. Considering he’s averaging a 30-point triple-double on elite shooting efficiency, if the Nuggets were just a tad more competent, Jokic would be neck and neck with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander in the MVP race. The Thunder going 11-1 in SGA’s 40-point games and 13-13 in games where his plus/minus is +7 or lower is the separator in their cases.
The Nuggets haven’t wasted Jokic’s prime, but they certainly haven’t made the most of it. He’s playing the best offensive ball of his career and carrying this team on his back, yet they still look likely to get axed early in the playoffs. It’s unlikely it’ll be Jokic’s fault, but he’ll undoubtedly shoulder much of the blame. Hopefully, the Nuggets can coalesce and make another deep run, but I’m starting to have my doubts.
Amen Thompson: Defensive Player of the Year?
Amen Thompson has been wrecking havoc on defense all year, but his past two games have been utterly absurd. The Rockets were in pole position to land the West’s second seed but faced the daunting task of playing the Thunder and Warriors in back-to-back games. SGA is the presumed MVP and the league’s leading scorer, while Steph Curry has been incandescent since the arrival of Jimmy Butler. No one would have faulted the Rockets for slipping up, but instead, Amen Thompson opened up the gates to hell.
Against the Thunder, Thompson helped to hold SGA to 22 points on 10 of 22 shooting, and most crucially, only two free throw attempts. By game score, it was his seventh-worst performance of the season. Both of Thompson’s blocks were on SGA, and this one perfectly illustrates just how impactful he was.
Next up was Stephen Curry, and good god, Amen made his life hell. Curry was held to 3 points on 1 of 10 shooting, and his only make of the game was a desperation circus shot. His game score was -1.6, but the most impressive part was Curry’s shot chart.
Yeah, Curry was straight-up not having a good time, and Amen was the prime offender. In both instances, the Rockets worked as a team to slow down the two most dangerous guards in the league, but Thompson was the difference maker. His combination of size, strength, athleticism, and tenacity tilts matchups in the defense’s favor.
Thompson probably won’t win Defensive Player of the Year, and I’m not sure he should, but he ought to be firmly in the conversation. He’s the only player averaging at least 1.3 blocks and steals per game, is a strong weakside rim protector and lockdown point of attack defender, and that versatility is key to the Rockets’ elite defense. If that doesn’t sound like a DPOY candidate, I don’t know what does.
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