Five NBA Things I May or May Not Have Liked: Opening Tip Edition
My favorite and least favorite things from the basketball world (October 21-23)
Now that everyone has played once, and the Thunder and Warriors twice, we can have nuanced discussions about the fate of the league, teams, and players.
The End of History
For all of the justified complaining about the cost, the NBA has never been more accessible, and Victor Wembanyama breaking basketball might end up being worth the cost of admission. I know it was only one game, but good god, what the fuck did we all watch? Wembanyama absolutely dominated on both ends. He effectively turned the rim into a no fly zone, blocked Derrick Lively, another seven footer, like he was hosting a children’s basketball camp, and then preceded to be a combination of Giannis Antetokounmpo, Kevin Durant, and Tim Duncan on offense as bullied his way to the hoop, hit fade away jumpers, and keep the bank well open after closing. In all honesty, Wembanyama is the only player who can score 40 points, grab 15 rebounds, swat three shots, and the statistics are just a footnote to the highlights. If you haven’t seen them, you must. Every other possession, he did something that looked preposterously unfair. He is the most perfectly engineered basketball player ever, and with each passing day, he grows stronger. I am apprehensively excited that he will break basketball. It will be a spectacle to watch, but his world-conquering powers might subjugate the league too fully. All hail Victor Wembanyama, the God Emperor of Hoop.
Fouls, Too Many Fouls
Despite an embarrassment of high-level play over the opening slate of games, something has felt off. We’ve had overtimes. Stars lighting up the scoreboard. And yet, every game has felt like a bloated slog. And then it dawned on me, there have been too many fucking free throws. Visual flow is what makes basketball such a delight. Uninterrupted periods of play are the beating heart of the sport, and nothing, and I mean nothing, ruins that flow like a steady chirping of whistles. It is incredibly early, but the explosion in fouls and free throws needs to be addressed.
Welcome to the 2025-26 NBA season! Now with 30% more fouls and free throws. If this continues, people, mainly me, but I’m projecting my sentiments onto others, are going to storm the league office with pitchforks and torches. It is unbearable. Instead of blaming the referees, I think there is fault on both sides. Teams appear to be playing at a higher intensity level, especially regarding on-ball pressure, and that’s just always going to lead to more fouling. Referees have also been more willing, perhaps hoodwinked, into calling fouls when there is marginal contact. I don’t care if he played two double-overtime games; Shai Gilgeous-Alexander shouldn’t be averaging 20 free throw attempts per game. My hope is that this is simply the players and referees taking a bit of time to get up to game speed. Regardless, the foul rate is something to monitor.
Thunder Rockets
The NBA season opened the season with an absolute bang. NBC, the NBA’s newest old partner, was gifted a heavyweight fight between the Thunder and Rockets. Even before the game tipped, you had drama. It was Kevin Durant’s Rockets debut in Oklahoma City on ring night. But that was just a cupcake to the main course. The Rockets unveiled their jumbo-sized lineup featuring Amen Thompson (6’7), Jabari Smith Jr. (6’11), Kevin Durant (6’11), Alperen Sengun (6’11), and Steven Adams (6’11) to combat Gilgeous-Alexander and the Shai Guys. Was the game pretty? Fuck, no. But these two sides are masters at turning brutality into art. The Rockets used their size to bludgeon their way to a 37.2% offensive rebound rate, while the Thunder cranked up the ball pressure to force an 18.4% turnover percentage. This entire game was fought in the trenches, and the only thing that made it watchable was the insane shot-making of Durant, Gilgeous-Alexander, Chet Holmgren, and Alperen Sengun, who scored 39 points on five of eight 3-point shooting. This game was so intense, Amen Thompson had to leave the game with cramps two minutes into the first overtime. I would be remiss to mention, Kevin Durant pulled a Chris Webber at the end of the first overtime, but was saved by referee obliviousness, and thus, we were gifted another overtime. Honestly, watching this game was like if you watched every Rocky fight scene in a row. By the end, everyone was so spent, the game devolved into a stream of bricks. If it wasn’t for Gilgeous-Alexander baiting a Durant shooting foul, it might have gone on forever. In no way was this game cinema, but it was a chaotic, messy, and brutal action thrill ride. Hopefully, we get to see these two in the playoffs because I have a feeling the sequel will be the perfect summer blockbuster.
A Retreat Within the Arc?
Once again, it’s early. In fact, it’s too early to say anything substantive about anything, but 3-point attempt rate is down. Last season, the league hit a new high for 3-point attempt rate, the percentage of field goal attempts that are 3-pointers, at 42.1%. Thus far, that figure is at 39.9%. Look, a slight dip from an all-time high is what you’d generally expect, but I think we may see 3-point attempt rate plateau a tad. First, pace is up from 98.8 possessions to 102.3, and teams are averaging about one extra transition opportunity per game. It could just be fresh legs and an offseason of we’re going to play faster at work, but more running should lead to more layups and dunks, which is exactly what we’ve seen. Last season, 6.1% of all field goal attempts were dunks and 26.3% were layups. To start the season, those figures are at 6.5% and 27.1%, and when you take into account the explosion in free throws, it’s clear teams are trying to do more damage within the arc. I have no idea if this can hold. Taking a 3-pointer is generally a far lower energy shot than driving to the basket, but a brief reprieve from shot chart sprawl would be a welcome sight.
Maximum Edge
The Philadelphia 76ers have been blessed with the bounty of no expectations. Nothing ruins a season quite like Great Expectations. Every game is a must-win. A single losing streak is a calamity. The arena is a pressure cooker, and when things go sideways, everyone starts pointing fingers. That was the Sixers’ last season, and they fell flat on their face. In large part due to that disappointment, the Sixers enter 2025-26 with no expectations, but that might just change. Tyrese Maxey and VJ Edgecombe put on a show against the Boston Celtics. The pair combined for 74 points, and the Sixers needed every last drop of their scoring punch to prevail in a one-point victory. Will Tyrese Maxey continue to shoot 77.8% from 3-point range? Will VJ Edgecombe go down as the greatest rookie ever after averaging 34 points per game? Will Nick Nurse turn back the clock and play his two guards over 40 minutes a night? Absolutely not. But that doesn’t matter. The Sixers have no expectations, so they can just enjoy two hyper-athletic guards running rampant. In fact, with Joel Embiid playing 20 minutes and looking like a lost child on the court, and Paul George still out with a knee injury, I don’t think the Sixers are likely to have any expectations anytime soon. Competing for titles is great, but also stressful. The Sixers have been maximum stressed for the past eight seasons, but now they can just have maximum fun watching Maximum Edge slice through defenses.
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