Is Ja Morant Right About Not Getting Any Calls?
A statistical investigation into the dark world of free throw grifting
The vibes in Memphis are not swell. The Grizzlies have been a legitimately bad team, but worst of all, their franchise player, Ja Morant, has been both ineffective and completely sour. When broached about his precipitous decline in rim attempts, Morant did not pull any punches, saying, “I’m getting no foul calls, Y’all had a whole spiel about running in there careless and getting hurt. So what’s now? That’s what y’all want me to go back doing? Let’s end that convo right there.”
While I usually don’t care for “Player X said Y” type of posts, this is a claim that can be easily examined through a statistical lens. Ja Morant claims his rim attempts are down because he’s not getting calls. Well, let’s see if Ja is cooking or full of shit.
Using Basketball Reference’s shot location frequency data, I was able to determine how many field goal attempts every player has taken within zero to three feet from the basket. I’m using shots of this ilk as a proxy for rim attempts, and it’s likely this is the data that prompted the original line of questioning.
Morant’s field goal attempt frequency around the rim has been in steady decline since entering the league, but has really fallen off over the past two seasons. This is not a unique phenomenon, but the acceleration of the trend is worrying. Adding fuel to the fire is that his frequency of shots three to ten feet has also fallen. All told, he’s taking a career low 42.5% of his field goal attempts within ten feet, the first season of his career that figure has dropped below 50% and down from a high of 64.4%.
If the questioning wasn’t out of line, then is there something to Morant’s claim that he just isn’t getting calls when he ventures deep into the lane? Fortunately, the linear correlation between raw free throw attempts and the total number of shots attempted between zero and three feet this season is quite strong at 0.75*. Using a linear forecast model, I was able to determine how many free throw attempts a player would be expected to attempt based on their total rim attempts. The forecast model routinely overshot the actual figure by 3.11 expected free throws, so I simply threw that in there as a weight. Over the entire sample of NBA players to have played this season, subtracting 3.11 from what the linear forecast model spat out was off by a maximum of -0.29 from their actual free throw attempt figure. It’s not perfect, but it comes pretty close.
*Stats as of November 10th
So, how many free throws should Morant have taken based on his rim field goal attempt frequency? 58.86. And how many free throw attempts has Morant taken? 59. Morant decrying the referees for his lack of rim attempts doesn’t really hold statistical water. Now, if he feels like he isn’t getting calls, and that’s causing him to go to the rim less, then his belief that the referees aren’t providing him a better whistle is why his rim attempts are down, but that’s on him.
If blaming the refs isn’t the answer, then what is? Well, I have a few theories. First, Morant just isn’t as explosive as he used to be and can’t get to the rim and finish as easily. This is evident in the data, and it is relatively common for guards to see their rim metrics decline as they creep towards 30. Second, Morant suffered an ankle sprain in training camp and wasn’t a sure thing to even start the season. Often, players will return following an ankle sprain before regaining peak physical fitness. When you factor in that he didn’t get a normal ramp-up period, his athleticism might take a bit to round into form, which speaks nothing of his trust in the ankle’s stability. And third, the Grizzlies’ center rotation has been an absolute mess.
Thus far, Zach Edey and Brandon Clarke have played zero combined games. While neither is elite by any means, Clarke is a rim runner that defenses need to respect, and Edey, due to his massive frame, sets bone-shattering screens. When a guard is paired with an ineffective pick-and-roll partner, the action just sends more defenders to the ball handler.
The Thunder are obviously a great defensive team, but look how meek some of those screens were and how clogged the lane is. A better screener or rim runner either gives Morant more runway into the lane or a streaker who diverts defensive attention. Instead, for the Grizzlies to get Morant loose, the screener needs to plant their flag and take themself completely out of the action, or Morant gets guarded two-v-one and funneled where the defense wants him.
At the end of the day, the referees are the least of Morant’s problems. He has clearly declined from the player he once was. He likely has a bit more trepidation about flying to the rim due to injury concerns. And the Grizzlies have a horrid combination of floor spacing and screen setting. When you add it all up, it only makes sense that his rim numbers have declined. It’s on the Grizzlies and Ja to get this right. Because chirping over chirps ain’t it.
For any inquiries about work, discussion, and the like, you can email me at nevin.l.brown@gmail.com.