Jalen Green: Trick or Treat?
Has Jalen Green finally broken out, or is this another flash in the pan?
To put it simply, Jalen Green is a divisive figure. He possesses awe-inspiring athleticism and the confidence to wield it, but he has also been thoroughly mediocre to poor throughout most of his career. Some swear he’s a future star, others believe he’s a bust, and both parties have legitimate arguments. Green doesn’t straddle the line between good and bad. Rather, he’ll firmly occupy one before switching allegiances, and it makes him one of the hardest players to figure out.
The start of the 2024-25 season has gone exactly how the Houston Rockets envisioned when they selected Jalen Green second overall, ahead of Evan Mobley, Scottie Barnes, and Franz Wagner, to name a few, in the 2021 NBA draft. Through six games, he’s averaging 24.2 points per game on massive, yet efficient, 3-point volume (9.8 3PA, 39.0%). And his production is leading to winning basketball with an on-court plus/minus of +3.2 and a Box Plus/Minus (BPM) of 2.3.
Green has played at an All-Star level, vindicating his supporters, but unfortunately, he has done this before promptly reverting to a pumpkin. So is Jalen Green finally treating the Rockets to his fantastic potential? Or is this another trick that ends in a cornucopia of missed shots?
“Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, I…I can’t get fooled again”
- George W. Bush
The 2023-24 season perfectly captured the Jalen Green experience. Over his first 58 games, he averaged 17.6 points per game on an effective field goal percentage (eFG%) of 47.2% and produced an offensive rating of 102. When the league average eFG% and offensive rating were 54.7% and 115.3, it’s immediately clear Green was a massive net negative on the offensive end. However, on February 29th, 2024, everything clicked.
From leap day to March 31st, Green played 16 games and averaged 28.1 points per game on a 57.8 eFG% for an offensive rating of 119. The Rockets surged up the standings and Green looked like a bonafide star, but it wasn’t meant to last. In the eight games to close the season, he reverted to his old ways, averaging 17.1 points per game on a 46.4% eFG% and a 96 offensive rating.
While Green treated the league to 16 games of superstar-worthy performances, he spent the remaining 66 playing at a replacement level. The most telling statistic for Green has always been his 3-point shooting. Throughout his dazzling month of March, he shot 40.9% on 9.9 attempts per game, but outside of those 16 games, he shot a paltry 30.5%. The upside he possesses is clear, but inconsistency is where potential goes to die.
Living and dying by the three
Much like last season, Green’s hot stretch has coincided with a spike in 3-point shooting efficiency. While it’s wishful to think he will continue to shoot almost 40% on ten 3-point attempts a game, there are positive indicators suggesting his shot has improved. He has raised his 3-point efficiency on catch and shoot jumpers from 31.6% to 43.5%, improved his free throw shooting, and seen his 3-point pull-up efficiency go from 33.3% to 38.5%. Seeing shooting improvement across the board is a much better indicator of real growth and not just variance, and the statistical improvement backs up the eye test. He’s taking his threes with more consistent balance, confidence, and intention.
Unfortunately, Green’s shooting mechanics and history don’t suggest he will sustain his elite 3-point shooting. As a left-pocket shooter, Green’s natural shot mechanics take the ball across his body diagonally to reach his release point. Since the ball isn’t in line with the target for as long, it creates less margin for error. There have been incredible shooters who have shot this way, but Green’s history as a poor 3-point and mid-range jump shooter suggests he isn’t capable of overcoming less-than-ideal mechanics to become an elite shooter. Even though his current efficiency won’t hold up, it’s a good bet he’ll better his career 33.9% mark.
The real key to Green reaching his potential will be what he does within the arc. Players who rely solely on their 3-point shooting are inherently more volatile, and Green’s inefficiency within the arc has held his production hostage to 3-point variance. The good news is he appears to have taken a step forward at generating rim attempts.
Under rim pressure
For the season, Green is converting 73.9% of his attempts at the rim, a career-high, and he’s doing that with a career-low assisted percentage of 17.6%. The ability to self-generate rim attempts is necessary for any perimeter player who wants to be a star but isn’t an elite 3-point shooter. Similarly, only 6.7% of his layups have been assisted, which is a massive drop from seasons prior when that figure hovered around 32%. So while he’s only shooting 51.7% on layups, the fact he is creating them on his own is incredibly promising.
However, Green’s ability to finish at the rim still needs refinement. After charting his game tape, I found 31 instances of a contested layup/rim attempt, of which he converted 12. Obviously, players convert at lower efficiency on contested shots, but he needs to improve on that 38.7% figure. His primary issue is he struggles mightily when confronted by a rim protector or any weakside help.
Against the Warriors, Green missed all of his contested layups simply because the Warriors were spot-on with their defensive rotations. Continued strength development would go a long way in helping Green finish through contact, but with how little his frame has filled out, he might never put on the requisite mass to use brute force as the primary mechanism to beat defenders at the rim. In the short term, he’ll have to improve his craft and passing, or else his efficiency will be wanting.
While brute force isn’t a winning strategy at the rim, Green has been able to use his speed to beat his defender and the rotation to the rim with some consistency. There has been real improvement in this regard, but it isn’t to a level where a star turn looks imminent. Fundamentally, it requires poor defense or incredible spacing, something the Rockets do not have, to consistently win a race to the rim. It’s why he had so much success against the rebuilding Spurs and far less against the Mavericks and Warriors.
The midrange theory
Thus far, Green’s midrange shot has been scattershot. While he won’t continue to shoot 0.0% on shots 10-16 from the basket, it’s safe to say he probably won’t be a consistent midrange threat anytime soon. Being a two-level scorer isn’t a death sentence, but it would limit his ultimate upside.
An issue Green runs into, outside of his steaky jump shooting, is he doesn’t manipulate speeds to create advantages. The best players in the midrange are experts at slowing down and speeding up to create the necessary space and time to generate shots for themself and others. At this stage in his development, Green relies almost exclusively on his speed to create space. Even when he does stop after a bolt, he rarely uses the space created, and thus time, to do anything more than shoot a jumper. With his physical gifts, he doesn’t need to be Chris Paul, but Green has to do a better job of changing speeds within the arc to gain offensive advantages.
Even with a rudimentary midrange game, Green can still be a productive player, but he won’t be a star without it. His defense and passing vision simply won’t make up for less than elite-level scoring. That doesn’t make him a lost cause but his scouting and statistical profile suggest he is seasons away from reaching his potential, if he ever gets there.
The Houston Rockets rewarded Jalen Green’s dazzling potential and disappointing performance with the first two-plus-one rookie scale extension in NBA history. At three-years, $106 million with a player option, the Rockets firmly staked their flag on the continental divide of “that boy nice” ($35.33 million per season) and “that dude garbage” (short and tradable).
Through six games, there has been more good than bad, but it still feels like Green hasn’t quite figured it all out. This should end up being the best season of his career, but I wouldn’t bet on him making an All-Star-adjacent leap. It is very encouraging that he looks to be ironing out the parts of his game that have led to his incredibly streaky production. Jalen Green isn’t taking a leap, but he’s making the incremental improvements necessary to really take off.