Jayson Tatum is Not Himself, Yet
A visual and statistical scouting report of Tatum’s first ten(ish) games
The sports-media-industrial complex has turned player returns into its own, unique marketing exercise. I remember when Robert Griffin III had an entire ad campaign built around his return for week one. I’m sure we’ll see something eerily similar with Patrick Mahomes. And with Jayson Tatum, his return journey to the court, following a devastating Achilles tear, was treated as breaking news the whole way through.
The success the Boston Celtics had in his stead only threw fuel onto the fire. Tatum’s return wasn’t just a story of resiliency; it had the potential to swing the balance of power in the league. And now, he’s back, and he looks exactly like you’d expect Jayson Tatum coming off an Achilles tear, but ten months earlier.
Let’s start with the good. Tatum’s return has in no way hurt the Celtics’ performance. They’re 9-2 in games he has played, have a +10.9 net rating with him on the court, and he’s coming off his best performance of the season, a 32-point, eight-assist, and zero-turnover effort against the Hornets. On a basic level, all Tatum needed to do upon his return was make the Celtics better, and he’s done just that.
Unfortunately, while the Celtics have improved as a unit, Tatum has been far from his pre-injury form. He’s currently averaging 20.9 points, 4.2 assists, and 9.1 rebounds per game on a True Shooting percentage of 52.5% (league average is 58.1%). This shouldn’t be a shock to anyone, but it definitely dampens the Celtics’ chances of making a run to the NBA Finals. They don’t necessarily need him to be his old self, but it wouldn’t hurt, either. So, let’s take a look at where he has struggled, why he is struggling, and how reasonable it is to believe he can get back to approximately his prior level of performance by May.
Catch-and-Shoot
One of the biggest drags on Tatum’s production has been uncharacteristically poor shooting on catch-and-shoot jumpers. His current 26.9% shooting on 2.4 catch-and-shoot 3-pointers per game is a far cry from the 40%, 43%, and 40.5% he posted in the three seasons prior. Simply getting to 40% on catch-and-shoot triples would raise his 3-point field goal percentage from 32.3% to 36.2%. While this is about Jayson Tatum, this perfectly illustrates the fine margins that dominate the NBA. A mere boost of 0.36 made threes per game takes Tatum’s 3-point shooting from abhorrent to above the league average of 35.9%.
While there’s every reason to believe Tatum will shoot much better on catch-and-shoot jumpers, I’m a little concerned with his volume. Tatum has never been a great off-the-dribble 3-point shooter, but has always been great on catch-and-shoot opportunities. However, starting in 2023-24, he really ramped up his pull-up and off-the-dribble 3-point volume, at the expense of catch-and-shoot. It would behoove the Celtics, and Tatum, for that matter, to revert closer to his 2022-23 shot mix, which saw him take 4.0 catch-and-shoot threes per game, once the playoffs begin.
Pull-up & Off-the-Dribble
While Tatum has never been a particularly efficient off-the-dribble or pull-up 3-point shooter, it doesn’t mean those are wasted shots. In the modern NBA, to fully maximize your pick-and-roll, playmaking, and drive game, most players need a credible pull-up game. This season, Tatum is shooting 33.3% on pull-up 3-pointers, but that’s actually right in line with his numbers from the previous two seasons, when he was at 32.9% and 34.9%. What is odd is that the visual evaluation of his off-the-dribble shooting is woeful.
The sheer number of wildly inaccurate pull-up and off-the-dribble threes his jarring. Based on the visual scouting, I’m amazed that his shooting efficiency is as high as it is, which makes prognostication somewhat difficult. Visually, you’d imagine his shooting would improve, but you’d also expect the statistics to trend towards what we’re seeing. My guess is he’ll continue to shoot around 33% on off-the-dribble and pull-up threes, but he’ll look a whole lot better doing it.
Drives & Finishing
For Celtics fans, this should be the greatest area of concern. To put it politely, Tatum looks like he has aged a decade on drives. His burst is not there, and he lacks that final pop on his drives to create advantageous finishing opportunities. None of this should be a surprise, but he looks a long way off physically.
Tatum’s lack of closing burst on his drives has caused him to struggle much more with contact and physicality, and it has seen him try to finish at the basket more horizontally than vertically.
The statistics also support the visual scouting. Tatum is shooting 60.8% on shots less than five feet from the basket, which is a significant drop from the 68.7%, 68.3%, and 66% he posted in the prior three seasons. On top of that, he is getting within five feet at his lowest rate over the past four seasons (25.76%). While his lack of rim pressure is a continuation of a trend that predates his injury, there is one caveat. The Celtics, as a team, are driving the ball far more.
Prior to this season, Tatum’s field goal attempt percentage within five feet correlated to how drive-happy the Celtics’ offense was. Obviously, we’re dealing with a tiny sample, and this correlation might be completely unrelated, but it’s a narrative that aligns with what we’re all seeing. Tatum has become a significantly less dangerous player going to the basket.
The good news is he’ll almost certainly improve to some degree in this regard. In the short term, the question is how much he can regain in the next month or so. I doubt we’ll see him anywhere close to his prior best, but I also don’t think we’ll see nearly as many drives that end up with a horizontal attack.
Passing & Playmaking
Due to Tatum’s less effective scoring and, in particular, driving, his passing figures haven’t been up to his recent standards. However, 2024-25 was a high mark for him in passing creation, and his current 21.1% assist percentage and 6.8 assists per 100 possessions are almost identical to the marks he posted in 2023-24 (21.0% and 6.8). Tatum’s synergy with Neemias Queta looks promising, but it’d help the Celtics come playoff time if he leaned a bit more into passing creation. The Celtics are dead last in the percentage of assisted 2-point field goals at 46.1%. Tatum is undoubtedly their best passer, and if his scoring isn’t back to his usual standard, leaning into creation would be a welcome boost.
The Overall Offensive Package
By the time the playoffs roll around, I think it’s safe to assume that Tatum’s 3-point shot will have stabilized around the league average mark of 36%. There’s a chance it settles a bit lower, as he might be more reliant on off-the-dribble threes to compensate for his lessened ability to get to the basket. As far as 2-point efficiency goes, he should improve on the 47.5% he’s currently shooting, but I don’t see him getting back to the 55.3% he averaged over the prior three seasons. Something right above 50% sounds about right. His free throw rate is also below his career norm, but once again, that makes sense given the current state of his game.
All told, I think it’s realistic to view Tatum as a 23-point, 9.5 rebound, and 5.0 assist player on an effective field goal percentage of 52.5% by the time the playoffs roll around– he’s currently at an eFG% of 48%. That’s not first-team All-NBA good, but it’s a guy who gets considered for the All-Star game. When you factor in Tatum’s elite positional rebounding and solid team defense, that makes him the best mid-season addition in the league. While that level of production would give the Celtics a real chance to make it out of the East, I don’t think it’s enough to make them the overwhelming favorites. However, there’s every chance Tatum outperforms my prognostication, and there’s no reason to think he couldn’t continue to improve throughout the playoffs.
For any inquiries about work, discussion, and the like, you can email me at nevin.l.brown@gmail.com.