J.P. Crawford Shows He's For Real
How the Mariners Now Have a Franchise Shortstop
For the Mariners, the 2020 season is like an early stage of a Jackson Pollock painting. Smatterings of paint thrust delicately and forcefully upon a canvas. There is no obvious image in mind, only energy and color meant to guide each subsequent application of inspiration. The Mariners have no idea what their 2020 painting will look like, it probably won’t be Jackson Pollock No. 5, but if the early goings are any indication then J.P. Crawford will be central to the next Mariners painting that breaks their fan’s hearts.
J.P. Crawford had been tagged as a franchise cornerstone from the moment he was drafted. A first-round pick of the Phillies in 2013 Crawford was a slick-fielding shortstop with an advanced bat and a frame that portended power growth. Crawford did not disappoint throughout his minor league career. At each stop, he posted above-average batting lines are showcased a disciplined approach at the plate. However, each time he was called upon by the Phillies, he disappointed with the bat and his fielding looked less than advertised. When the Phillies decided the time to win was right now they shipped Crawford, once their organization’s number one rated prospect, and Carlos Santana out for Jean Segura, James Pazos, and Juan Nicasio. It appeared the Phillies had given up on Crawford but in reality, he was the only asset they relinquished for an All-Star shortstop and salary relief. The Mariners clearly valued Crawford highly and now he is starting to show why.
Through the first 10 games of the season, J.P. Crawford finds himself ranked 10th in Fangraphs WAR right ahead of fellow 25-year-old Mariner Kyle Lewis. It’s early and an almost certainty that Crawford won’t be a top-10 player this year but his early showing is encouraging. First, Crawford’s batting eye and contact ability are finally providing value and not just preventing him from being an offensive black-hole. Last year Crawford had an 86 wRC+ with a 10.9% walk rate and a 21% strikeout rate. With average power, that level of discipline can lead to a solid hitter but Crawford does not even possess average power. Instead of trying to get to more of his power, Crawford has doubled down on what were already his strengths. In the first 10 games of 2020 Crawford is walking in 15.9% of his plate appearances and only striking out 11.4% of the time, which is good for a 173 wRC+. Crawford is hitting like Mike Trout by posting an elite walk to strikeout ratio. The only question is, can he keep it up?
No, he won’t keep hitting like Mike Trout (sorry most hopeful of Mariners’ fans). Crawford won’t be 73% better than league average as a hitter but he really doesn’t have to be a very valuable player. As a shortstop, even a subpar defensive one, a league-average batting line makes you a safe bet to be at least a 2 WAR player. Crawford, though, might have blossomed past the “solid cost-controlled player at a premium defensive position” into a legitimate All-Star caliber player this season. Crawford’s most notable improvement has been to his contact rate. It’s early but he has seen a near 10% increase in his contact rate on pitches inside (86.3% to 96%) and outside (68.3% to 77.3%) the zone. His overall contact percentage now stands at a robust 90.3%, a mark, if it were to stand, would have seen him finish third in the MLB last season among all qualified hitters. Crawford has paired his improved contact with a more selective approach. His current swing rate of 40.2% would have placed him between Max Muncy and Juan Sotto at 12th in the race to be the most selective hitter in baseball last year. Crawford’s current production as an un-strikeoutable walk-machine gives his offense an incredibly high floor which will be vital due to this lack of thump.
Crawford’s main weakness at the plate is that he just does not hit the ball all that hard. In 2020 his average exit-velocity ranks in the 35th percentile of all players and his barrel-% is in a similar 38th percentile. There are reasons for optimism that Crawford can use his unique skill set to be an above-average hitter even with lackluster power. First, he’s actually hitting the ball harder than he did last year (86.9 MPH up from 85 MPH) a sign that he is not simply trading contact for power. Second, with worse and less contact last season he was still a serviceable enough hitter for a shortstop due to his defense. In 396 plate appearances, Crawford produced 1.3 WAR a mark that if extrapolated to 600 plate appearances would give him 1.97 WAR. Plenty of great players were average over their first 165 games only to figure it out after, you know, getting a full season’s worth of Major League experience. The fact that Crawford has improved his patience, contact, and batted ball authority all at the same time means it’s almost impossible he won’t blow past the 86 wRC+ and 2 WAR/600 PA marks.
If Crawford keeps this up, Phillies' fans will probably regret trading him for Jean Segura. I do doubt they will regret trading Santana’s $20 million a year and Rhys Hoskins pretending to play left field for Bryce Harper and Rhys Hoskins pretending to play first base. It will still sting for Phillies fans to watch Crawford blossom into a high-contact on-base machine who can flash the leather with the best of them but sometimes that’s just the cost of doing business. Will he maintain his BABIP of .387? Probably not but he has shown enough of an improvement in his plate-discipline that even a step back in every category will likely produce an above-average hitter who just happens to play a pretty slick shortstop. With the glut of high-end shortstops in the MLB right now it’s easy to overlook players like J.P. Crawford, but If he keeps controlling the strike zone like this he’ll become a fan favorite in Seattle and hopefully, a part of the next Mariners painting that finally alludes to the playoffs.