Los Angeles Lakers v. Golden State Warriors Series Preview
Two sorta-upsets have the Western Conference all sixes and sevens
I tried in vain to give every first-round victor an NBA Playoffs Small Sample Efficiency Check, but an ill-timed birthday led to a day off and forced me to make a decision. Do two in one day before their series starts, or do one before the series starts and call it a preview. I chose the path of the least typing, and here we are.
With their current cores, the Los Angeles Lakers and the Golden State Warriors have never faced off in the playoffs, but that doesn’t change the fact that it feels like an old rivalry. LeBron James’ four-year-long NBA Finals battle with the Warriors was the birth of the modern NBA and created one of the most enjoyable storylines in basketball history.
LeBron was Goliath, but the Warriors’ trio of Stephen Curry, Draymond Green, and Klay Thompson formed a beast so fierce that LeBron played the part of David. He was able to slay the beast after an initial defeat, completing the hero’s journey, only to watch it grow another head by the name of Kevin Durant and be promptly vanquished.
Since their last showdown in the 2018 Finals, LeBron moved to Los Angeles, Durant departed, and the Warriors and LeBron oscillated between being exceptional enough to win a title and poor enough to miss the playoffs entirely. The closest we got to a playoff showdown was in 2020-21 when the two faced off in the seven-eight play-in. The Lakers won by three, claiming the seven seed and the Warriors proceeded to lose to the Memphis Grizzlies and miss the playoffs entirely. But enough backstory!
The Golden State Warriors and the Los Angeles Lakers are the media darlings of these playoffs. The combination of the most popular brand in the NBA facing off against the most popular brand of the past ten years, and humans' undying desire to have people like them, has led to the Warriors and Lakers being popular title picks. However, the coldhearted metrics think these are two very mediocre teams.
The Warriors finished the season with a net rating of +1.7 (11th), and the Lakers creaked in at +0.6 (16th), but both have a few excuses for their poor regular season showings. The Warriors only got 56 games from Steph Curry and 37 from Andrew Wiggins, and the Lakers got 55 and 56 games from LeBron and Anthony Davis and waited until February 8th to swing a massive trade to remake their roster.
However, only one of the top-ten leaders in points per game eclipsed 70 games, Jayson Tatum, and the other nine averaged 64 games. So while LeBron, Steph, and Davis missed almost a third of the season, they only missed around ten games compared to many superstars. Excuses aside, the Warriors and Lakers proved to be flawed regular-season teams, but it appears the Lakers did more to solve their problems than the Warriors.
How Rob Pelinka Saved the Lakers From Rob Pelinka
In one light, Rob Pelinka almost ruined another Lakers’ season with a clunky ill-fitting roster surrounding Anthony Davis and LeBron James. In another, he saved the Lakers’ season just in time for the playoffs by building a roster that compliments the Lakers’ two stars. I call this the Donald Trump strategy and Rob Pelinka executed it to perfection.
Step one: Create a needless problem → Swap excellent role players for Russell Westbrook
Step Two: Be the only person who can solve the problem → Hey, I’m the general manager
Step Three: Save the day by fixing the problem you created in the first place → Trade Russell Westbrook for excellent role players
The Lakers acquired D’Angelo Russell, Malik Beasley, and Jarred Vanderbilt on February 8th in a massive three-team trade. The Lakers were 25-30 at the time of the trade but closed the season on an 18-9 tear that only saw them start Russell, LeBron, and Davis eight times, going 7-1 in those games. In fact, the Lakers’ playoff starting lineup of Russell, LeBron, Davis, Austin Reaves, and Vanderbilt started six games in the regular season, a figure equaled in the first round against the Grizzlies.
Because Pelinka waited until the final moments to build a functional roster around two of the league’s top ten players, the Lakers are the most challenging team to gauge based on their metrics. In 77 regular season minutes, the Lakers’ playoff starting five produced a massive +21.66 net rating, a 126.51 offensive rating, and a 104.85 defensive rating. Not only is that too small a sample to read into, but they shot 52.17% from three while their opponents shot an ice-cold 28.57%.
The good news is that same group, in 85 playoff minutes, produced a net rating of +21.25, an offensive rating of 116.3, and a defensive rating of 95.05. While their 3-point shooting fell back to Earth (36.67%), their opponent’s 3-point shooting somehow got worse (24.62%). The Lakers aren’t the greatest team in NBA history, but even when opponent 3-point shooting normalizes, this group of five looks to be the real deal, which brings us to the Warriors.
The Warriors Were Rarely Whole
The Warriors didn’t completely remake their roster mid-season, but the absence of Andrew Wiggins for most of the season put a dent in their title defense. Wiggins is by no means a superstar, but he is an essential part of the Warriors’ machine. With Wiggins on the court, the Warriors had a +4.9 net rating, and without him, it dropped to +0.3.
Much like the Lakers, the Warriors’ preferred starting five is absolutely dominant. In 331 regular season minutes, the group of Steph Curry, Klay Thompson, Draymond Green, Wiggins, and Kevon Looney rampaged to a +23.6 net rating, a 132.12 offensive rating, and a 108.52 defensive rating. As great as Steph and Klay are as shooters, it’s unreasonable to expect them to maintain 46.83% 3-point shooting, but the group’s playoff performance shows just how dangerous this lineup is.
In 67 playoff minutes, they produced a 30.98 net rating, a 124.46 offensive rating, and a 93.48 defensive rating. Their defense did benefit from 20% opponent 3-point shooting, but the group only managed to convert 30% of their triples. The Lakers are a far better defensive team than the Kings, but the offensive floor of this five-man unit looks to be around 120 points per 100 possessions.
If the Starters Play to a Draw, Which Bench Has the Edge?
The Lakers and the Warriors have incredible starting units, with the Lakers showing more consistent defensive punch and the Warriors’ owning the superior offense. The reason both were mired in mediocrity throughout the season is their depth let them down. The Lakers managed to beat the Grizzlies in six games in large part because Rui Hachimura came off the bench and had the best 3-point shooting stretch of his career.
In six games against the Grizzlies, Hachimura shot 52.4% on 3.5 3-point attempts per game. Hachimura is a career 34.7% 3-point shooter, and it’s unlikely he’ll continue to hit over 40% of his threes. If he does, that could swing the series, but in all likelihood, the Lakers will need Dennis Schroder and Malik Beasley to pick up the slack. Schroder’s defense and ball handling was solid enough to keep him in the rotation, but he needs to hit more than 22.2% of his threes. Beasley is one of the streakiest 3-point shooters in the league, and for a career 37.8% 3-point shooter, he is unusually feast or famine.
The Warriors’ best bench player against the Kings was Draymond Green, which means their best bench player against the Lakers is up in the air. Jordan Poole was supposed to be the man to keep the Warriors’ bench units afloat, but he had a rough season and was awful against the Kings. Donte DiVincenzo, Gary Payton II, and Moses Moody all made positive contributions, but they’re role players best suited to play off of stars.
If the Warriors and Lakers starters play each other to draw, the series could come down to bench production and how each team’s rotations flesh out. Darvin Ham overcomes the Lakers’ bench deficiencies by playing Davis and LeBron massive minutes, while Steve Kerr rotates between one of Curry, Green, and Thompson on the court as much as possible. The Warriors looked more reliant than ever on Curry against the Kings, which could spell doom against a far better defense.
Light the Beam Was Fun, but the Grizzlies Were Better
Something that has been glossed over is that the Grizzlies were a far better team than the Kings. They won three more games and finished the season with a +1.3 better net rating. The Lakers stomped the Grizzlies in six games with a net rating of +7.4, while the Warriors suffered through a seven-game series and managed a +2.1 net rating. The playoffs are about advancing, but the Lakers faced a superior opponent and beat them resoundingly. Based on their current form, the Lakers look like the better team.
The Free Throw Line May Determine the Series
The most consequential battle may come at the free throw line. The Lakers were the best team in the NBA at gaining an edge at the line, and the Warriors were one of the worst. During the regular season, the Lakers averaged the most free throw attempts per 100 possessions at 26.0, and the Warriors finished dead last at 19.7. On the defensive end, the Lakers allowed the fewest free throw attempts per 100 possessions at 20.3, while the Warriors finished 23rd at 24.6. In short, the Lakers were treated to +5.7 free throws per 100 possessions, and the Warriors had to dig out of a -4.9 hole.
However, in the first round, those advantages on offense disappeared. The Warriors’ averaged 24.5 free throw attempts per 100 possessions compared to the Lakers’ 21.5, but the Lakers’ maintained their ability to keep opponents off the line (19.0) while the Warriors continued to struggle (25.0). A seven and six-game series is not a lot to work with, and playoff officiating has been uneven (last night, across two games, not a single free throw was taken in the first quarter), but the Lakers are going to need to maintain their volume advantage at the line to offset the Warriors superior shooting.
Warriors vs Lakers is a Toss-Up
The six and seven seeds are evenly matched, unsurprisingly. They are uneven teams with depth issues and plenty of questions. Believing in the Lakers is believing in small samples and the greatness of Anthony Davis and LeBron James, and believing in the Warriors is believing in track record and the greatness of Steph Curry, Draymond Green, and Klay Thompson.
This should be an excellent series and is a toss-up in my estimations. I wish Rob Pelinka had thrown this team together before the season started so we had a better idea of how good the Lakers really are, and I wish the Warriors had been whole for the entire season, but neither of those things happened. I’ll say Lakers in seven, but I have no idea who’s better, which should make this series incredibly fun to watch.