NBA Cupcake Kings: Part I, Not the Cupcakes!
The best against the best
Per the American Sports Commandments, handed down from Deus Sporticus to Kenesaw Mountain Landis, no league will make the faintest effort to have a balanced schedule. While it’s technically impossible to have a perfectly balanced schedule because you can’t play yourself (sorry, DJ Khalid), the divergent quality of opposition can be the difference in playoff seeding, tank racing, and, yes, individual statistics.
Putting up numbers against the bottom feeders of the world isn’t a crime, but rising to the occasion is the part that makes it into sports lore. There’s a reason Big Shot Rob and not Bad Team Beaty is a nickname.
To qualify for this leaderboard, players needed to be in the top-100 in total and total points against bottom and top ten defenses. This allows for each individual player’s sample to be large enough that it’s not completely small sample theater. Overall, these arbitrary cutoffs left us with 71 eligible players, with some notable exceptions being LeBron James, Austin Reaves, Giannis Antetokounmpo, and Jalen Duren. While using minutes would have been fairer, I don’t think anyone really cares that Jabari Smith Jr. sees his scoring drop by 1.8 points per game when facing a top ten defense compared to a bottom ten unit. If you’re wondering where you can find this data, RealGM.com player stats is the place to go.
The first comparison we’ll be looking at is the difference in production between facing a top ten and a bottom ten defense. Now, declines in efficiency and total scoring should be expected, and anyone who bucks that trend deserves brownie points for being one of god’s strongest soldiers.
Top 10 vs Bottom 10 Scoring Difference
Remember, this isn’t the list of the best players against top ten defenses; if you want to see that, click here. As you’ll notice, there is a clear trend of players playing more minutes against top ten defenses, as opposed to bottom ten, which makes perfect sense. Better teams are harder to blow out, and better teams, generally, have better defenses. For many of these players, the simple boost in minutes explains most of the change in performance.
As a member of the Derrick White fan club, I am glad to see him at the top. He has had an uncharacteristically poor 3-point shooting season, but fortunately for the Celtics, he has been at his best against the best. Norman Powell and Anthony Edwards also deserve shoutouts for not only increasing their scoring volume but also their efficiency.
While we could stop here, why would we when we’re having fun with charts? The next group of players I want to highlight are the players who have scored the highest percentage of their points against top ten defenses.
Percent of Points and Minutes Against Top 10 Defenses
This chart captures volume much more than production. The “points - minutes” figure is meant to indicate some level of overperformance against stronger defenses. However, shoutout to the Portland Trail Blazers and Deni Avdija for facing an absolutely brutal stretch of schedule. Considering the season Avdija is having, it’s incredible that almost half of his minutes have come against top third defenses. Another player who deserves praise is Nickeil Alexander-Walker. He has been one of the best signings of the summer, and the Timberwolves’ decision to let him walk could come back to haunt them in the playoffs. With the relational statistics out of the way, let’s get to the good stuff.
Player Stats Without Bottom 10 Defenses
The chart removes all statistics accumulated against bottom ten defenses and is ordered by points per game. Among the top-30 in points per game, I highlighted the leader and bottom dweller in each statistical category. No significant surprises here; the best players in the league are great against stiffer competition. However, further down the leaderboard, you start to worry.
The Suns have had a great season, but their reliance on two highly inefficient players against top defenses, Devin Booker and Dillon Brooks, will probably cost them in the playoffs. Regardless of how bad the Pelicans’ season has been, Zion Williamson has had a strong season. He’ll probably never become the MVP candidate we envisioned after his dominant second-season, but he’s a solid All-Star caliber player when healthy. Tomorrow, I’ll have the actual cupcake kings.
For any inquiries about work, discussion, and the like, you can email me at nevin.l.brown@gmail.com.