NBA Cupcake Kings: Part II, the Truest Cupcake Kings

The best against the worst

In part I of NBA Cupcake Kings, I examined the players who have performed the best against the best defenses. For part II, we’ll dive into the true cupcake kings. To qualify for this exercise, a player had to be in the top-100 for total points, points against bottom ten defenses, and points against top ten defenses.

When I first did this exercise for Fansided a few years ago, it was because I noticed that Joel Embiid’s incredible rate statistics had come against a metric ton of absolutely abysmal competition. Now, this wasn’t Embiid’s fault. It just so happened that the Sixers had an easy start to their schedule, and then he got hurt right as their schedule started to get meaty. Embiid’s overall statistics had by far benefitted the most from playing poor defenses, but it didn’t change the fact that he was an elite player.

However, what it did do was suggest that his historic pace of averaging over a point a minute wouldn’t have held up against a more balanced schedule. Embiid was still a monster, but he was also a monster that had gotten a tad fat on cupcakes. And those are the players whom we are going to analyze today.

Bottom 10 vs Top 10 Scoring Difference

Well, hello, Donovan Mitchell and Mr. Markkanen. There’s nothing inherently wrong with playing well against bad defenses, and less well against good defenses, but holy cow. All season long, I’ve been wondering why Mitchell’s excellent season has been overlooked, and perhaps this is exactly why.

Lauri Markkanen ranking so highly carries its own level of intrigue. No player in the top-30 has seen their field goal attempts skyrocket against bottom-tier defenses, compared to top-tier defenses, quite like him. My guess is this has less to do with Markkanen and more to do with the Jazz’s surrounding talent. He’s a play finisher, not a play creator, which means his production, on some level, is up to his teammates.

Julius Randle is having an excellent season, but it looks to be a result of him feasting on a heaping helping of porous defenses. This has been a consistent trend throughout his career, and is one of the reasons why, despite his good statistics, teams are willing to move off of him when they want to level up.

Percent of Points and Minutes Against Bottom 10 Defenses

The Timberwolves, apparently, have played a ton of bottom-ten defenses. And while a narrative has emerged that they’re bad against the bad teams, that doesn’t bear out in the statistics. They’re 12-13 against teams with winning records, 22-9 against teams with losing records, and this chart goes a long way in explaining that. If the Wolves are going to make it to a third consecutive Western Conference Finals, they’ll need to reverse this trend.

Player Stats Without Top 10 Defenses

If you read part I, you may remember that this chart, which removes all stats against top ten defenses, looks eerily similar to the chart that removed all statistics against bottom ten defenses. That shouldn’t be altogether surprising, as both factor in the same cohort of data against middle-third defenses, and players don’t suddenly turn into someone different just because the defense they’re facing is better or worse.

For any inquiries about work, discussion, and the like, you can email me at nevin.l.brown@gmail.com.