NBA Hipster: 10 Under the Radar Seasons
It’s like Pitchfork Music circa 2007, just NBA
Due to the nature of the sport, basketball is a star-driven enterprise. It’s much easier to divert an undue burden toward your best players and hope for the best than it is in, say, baseball or either version of football. This is a feature, not a bug, but it does lead us to overlook supporting characters. Since it’s March, three-fourths of the season is already in the books, and I wanted to highlight ten* players who are having excellent under-the-radar seasons. Championships may be won by stars, but they’re often decided by role players.
A Quick Note on Statistics
All player stats are from prior to Wednesday, March 5.
For this article, I’ll be using Box Plus/Minus (BPM) and Value Over a Replacement Player (VORP) regularly. BPM is a rate stat, while VORP is the counting stat version of BPM. BPM takes a player’s box score statistics, something even the most data-averse fans use, and spits out how many points per 100 possessions they’d produce over a league-average player. It’s not a perfect statistic, but it will point you in the right direction, and unlike PER or Win Shares, it doesn’t have a fatal attraction for rebounds.
Another important note, if I say a player has a shooting percentage 3% above league average, it isn’t the difference; it is the percentage of the league average. For example, the league average eFG% this season is 54.3%. 3% better than the league average won’t be 57.3%, it will be 55.9%.
On/Off statistics are from PBPStats and differ slightly from Basketball Reference.
Mikal Bridges - New York Knicks
The New York Knicks are one of the league’s most discussed teams. Part of that is because they hail from the “media capital” of their world, but it’s also because they’re an excellent team with real championship aspirations– just interview their owner for the first time in two years.
Despite the undying attention bestowed upon the Knicks, Mikal Bridges has been somewhat of an afterthought this season. Jalen Brunson is their offensive engine and clear star. OG Anunoby is a certified defensive ace. Josh Hart, Miles McBride, and ‘Grand Theft’ Jose Alvardo have stolen the fan base’s heart. And Karl-Anthony Towns’ successes and struggles are dissected like a fetal pig at the local Middle School.
So, it might surprise you to learn that Comrade Mikal Bridges leads the team in Box Plus/Minus (BPM), and, due to never missing a game, Value Over a Replacement Player (VORP). In fact, Bridges’ 3.6 BPM ranks 23rd in the league, while his 3.0 VORP ranks 13th. I’m not seriously suggesting that Bridges has been the Knicks’ best player, but considering how maligned he was last season, I only think it’s fair to highlight just how great a season he is having.
He is averaging 15.6 points per game on a True Shooting percentage (TS%) 4% better than the league average, and chipping in 4.1 rebounds, 4.0 assists, 1.5 steals, and 0.8 blocks per game. While Bridges is far from a high-volume offensive player, his 3.76:1 assist-to-turnover ratio leads the Knicks. And it all leads to a 2.0 Offensive BPM, which makes it no surprise that the Knicks are +3.21 points per 100 possessions better with him on the court.
For a guy who literally shows up every night and gives you 34 minutes of extreme competence, Bridges does not get the flowers he’s owed. Ultimately, the Knicks’ season will come down to how they fare in the playoffs, and I have a sneaking suspicion that if they make a real run, Bridges will play a massive role, just like he has all season.
Collin Gillespie - Phoenix Suns
A lot of ink has been spilt on Collin Gillespie, but it’s deserved. The Suns have been one of the surprises of the season, and I still don’t think people appreciate just how good he has been. Gillespie is averaging 13.6 points and 4.8 assists per game on a TS% 3% better than the league average, and leads the Suns in assist-to-turnover ratio at 2.79:1.
On top of his raw production, his 3-point shooting has been huge. He’s shooting 42.7% on 7.3 attempts per game. Gillespie has been a real deal floor spacer, and his overall play has been huge for their offense. While the Suns’ offense only improves by +1.6 points per 100 possessions with Gillespie on the court, that’s due to how his minutes are distributed.
1,029 of his 1,725 minutes have come without Devin Booker on the court, with the Suns posting an offensive rating of 113.91. However, with those two on the court together, their offensive rating springs to 117.04, and without either of them, it craters to 106.96. Gillespie isn’t the only role player having an excellent season for the Suns, and I’d be remiss not to shout out Grayson Allen, Mark Williams, Jordan Goodwin, Royce O’Neal, and Dillon Brooks.
Gillespie has been a godsend for the Suns, and they simply wouldn’t be where they are without him. His 2.7 Offensive BPM leads the team, and while he’s not a better offensive player than Booker, he has been elite in his role. I’m skeptical that the Suns can make any noise in the playoffs, but a hot week of shooting from Gillespie could turn a cake walk into The Long Walk.
Reed Sheppard - Houston Rockets
When Reed Sheppard gets hot, holy fuck, I get basketball bothered. There are few things more fun than watching a little dude terrorizing a defense through sheer 3-point gravity. He might not be Steph Curry, but his barrages are trending in that direction. Only adding to the fun is just how much his teammates absolutely love watching him heat-check his way to 12 points in two minutes.
Now, Sheppard’s season hasn’t just been about vibes. He’s averaging 13.2 points, 3.2 assists, 1.5 steals, and 0.6 blocks per game on a TS% 3% below league average. Yes, Sheppard, despite shooting 39.6% from three, has posted a below-average scoring efficiency, but that hasn’t stopped him from producing a 1.2 OBPM.
Somewhat surprisingly, although not at all, BPM absolutely loves Sheppard’s defense. The reason is all those steals and blocks. Sheppard is one of 12 players with a steal and block percentage of 2% and greater. And while 0.6 blocks per game looks like nothing, his block percentage of 2.2% ranks 48th in the league.
Sheppard’s 1.5 DBPM is a product of him racking up steals and blocks. He is not one of the 20 best defenders in the league, but his ability to create defensive events helps to alleviate his deficiencies elsewhere. However, when you factor that in with his elite floor spacing, you have yourself a solid two-way player.
The on/off figures for Sheppard aren’t as sterling as the players mentioned before, but there’s a reason for that. Out of 60 games played, he has started nine. For bench players, I don’t care if they have a positive on/off net rating; what I care about is if they have a positive on-court net rating, and Sheppard’s +5.53 certainly is.
The Rockets, due to a mid-season slump and mounting injuries, have fallen to the periphery of the Western Conference contender discussions. However, they’re still third in the West, have been quietly surging, and are now experimenting with more minutes for Sheppard. He’s probably their fourth-best player, but they absolutely need his 3-point shooting if they want to overcome the injuries to Fred VanVleet and Stephen Adams. Oh, yeah, he also might win Sixth Man of the Year, which is totally a real award for some reason.
Donovan Clingan - Portland Trail Blazers
Sometimes a statistic catches your eye, and you just have to talk about it. Donovan Clingan is a mountain of a man-boy– he turned 22 a few days ago, so is he really a man?– and has made his bones on defense through the early stages of his career. His 4.7 block percentage ranks tenth in the league, and his 27.8% defensive rebound percentage is sixth.
While you would think elite block and rebound percentages go hand in hand, it is a rare but highly promising occurrence. Only four players in the league have both better than a 25% defensive rebound percentage and 4% block percentage; one is Clingan, and the other three are Victor Wembanyama, Rudy Gobert, and Chet Holmgren, or, as I like to call them, one through three in Defensive Player of the Year voting.
Clingan’s standout skill is his defense, except that wasn’t the statistic that caught my eye. No, Donovan Clingan has 2.5 OBPM. There’s not a ton of mystery to why Clingan’s offense has popped in the metrics. His 17.5% offensive rebound rate leads the league, and he pairs it with a TS% 5% better than league average. And it’s why his offense, not his defense, has been crucial to the Trail Blazers.
The Blazers are +5.97 points per 100 possessions better with Clingan on the court, but it’s almost exclusively because their offensive rating improves by +5.63. Somehow, a player with Defensive Player of the Year-esque metrics has had next to no effect on his team’s defense. Personally, I don’t believe that’s actually the case, as the Trail Blazers’ defense has generally been a massive disappointment this season. With Clingan and Jrue Holiday on the court, their defensive rating of 113.25 is more in line with what you’d expect, but Holiday has only suited up for 34 games.
The Blazers are going to make the play-in this season by default, and while Clingan isn’t the main reason that’s the case, he has been one of their most important players. If he can continue to be a menace on the offensive glass, and they build a coherent defensive plan around his rim protection and rebounding, this could become a playoff team in short order.
Immanuel Quickley - Toronto Raptors
There’s a running joke that every agent struts into negotiations and cites Immanuel Quickley’s five-year, $162.5 contract as justification for why their client deserves the proverbial bag. While it’s a good bit, it’s also really unfair to Quickley. This season, his $32.5 million salary takes up 19.58% of the salary cap, and because his salary is flat throughout, by 2029-30, it’s only projected to take up 16.91%.
I don’t know about you, but a solid defensive point guard who averages 17.4 points per game on a TS% just above league average with an assist-to-turnover ratio of 3.81:1 seems like a pretty good player. Quickley doesn’t fit the standard point guard archetype of an on-ball creator, but he’s far more suited than most to function as a secondary option, which makes him integral to the Raptors.
Scottie Barnes is Toronto’s undisputed star, while Brandon Ingram, due to his style of play, gets pushed into the All-Star conversation because 22 mostly inefficient points is the siren song of the NBA. However, Quickley, despite a relatively low usage, owns the highest OBPM on the team at 2.2. And when he’s on the court, the Raptors experience a +5.04 swing in offensive rating, which is greater than both Barnes (+3.54) and Ingram’s (+2.87) impact.
After Barnes, whose defense is at another level, there’s a very strong case that Quickley is the second most important player on the Raptors. He might not be their best offensive player, but his combination of solid playmaking and shooting makes him their most indispensable. Considering the Raptors are 35-26 and a lock to make the playoffs, you’d think Quickley would have been mentioned by accident. Unfortunately, Toronto, the seventh largest metro area in North America by population, is too small a market to discuss more than one or two of their players.
Neemias Queta - Boston Celtics
The Boston Celtics have had the most impressive season in the league. Despite losing Jayson Tatum, Jrue Holiday, Kristaps Porzingis, and Al Horford from last year’s team, they’re 41-21, with the league’s second-ranked offense and sixth-ranked defense. While Neemias Queta hasn’t been powering their elite offense, he has been their defensive pillar.
Statistically, Quetta doesn’t jump off the page. His season averages of 10.1 points, 8.4 rebounds, and 1.3 blocks per game on a TS% 15% better than league average look like any run-of-the-mill replacement-level center. However, where he really shines is with the on/off data. With Queta on the court, the Celtics own an elite +12 net rating, a +7.52 bump compared to when he sits, and it’s all because of his defensive impact.
Before last night’s 118-89 drubbing by the Hornets, the Celtics had a 109.03 defensive rating with Queta on the court, which balloons to 116.97 without him. To put that type of swing in context, a 109.03 defensive rating would rank second in the league, while 116.97 would rank 22nd. If you need a top ten offense and defense to be a contender, Queta is holding up one of the Celtics’ championship pillars.
So many surprising things have gone right for the Celtics that it’s easy to forgive people for overlooking Queta’s impact. However, he is undeniably one of the Celtics’ most important players. He anchors their defense, and while his offensive contributions are minimal, he’s second on the team in offensive rebound percentage at 13.6%, which has become a big part of their offensive identity. It has taken a while, but Queta finally has a foothold in the NBA.
Cam Spencer - Memphis Grizzlies
Due to the Grizzlies’ uninspiring season, Cam Spencer won’t get much Sixth Man of the Year buzz, but that would be a mistake. In 59 games, Spencer is averaging 11.4 points and 5.5 assists on a TS% 12% better than league average. Combined with an assist-to-turnover ratio of 3.93:1, Spencer has produced an OBPM of 2.8, which is tops among players eligible for Sixth Man of the Year.
The basis of Spencer’s game is elite 3-point shooting. He’s shooting 44.2% on 4.7 attempts per game, which translates to 7.0 per 36 minutes. I’d argue he should take even more threes, but that’s not a real gripe. Somewhat surprisingly, he doesn’t have the same gaudy on/off splits as you’d expect. The Grizzlies’ defense is worse with him on the court, and their offense only improves by 1.19 points per 100 possessions.
However, laying the blame at Spencer’s feet seems a bit unfair. The Grizzlies have had a disastrous season, and he was never supposed to be a go-to on-ball option the way he has. For a team that has been sinking all season, Spencer has done an admirable job keeping them afloat. If and when the Grizzlies have a season that doesn’t include an injury list as long as a CVS receipt, I expect Spencer’s elite shooting and solid facilitating will be a major boost. Until then, he’ll be one of the few reasons to actually watch the Grizzlies.
San Antonio Spurs Wings* - Julian Champagnie, Keldon Johnson, Devin Vassell
I’m cheating a bit here, but for good reason. Julian Champagnie, Keldon Johnson, and Devin Vassell have all had excellent seasons in their own right, but the Spurs’ rapid rise to championship contender wouldn’t be possible without Tres Alas.
The Spurs’ 44-17 record and +6.7 net rating are only possible because they employ Victor Wembanyama. He’s the best defensive player in the league while moonlighting as an elite offensive player. If you made him league average on either side of the ball, he’d still be a star, which is why he is already one of the five best players in the league.
Due to the Spurs’ success, they’ve garnered a ton of deserved attention. Much of it goes to Wembanyama, but the rest has generally been directed toward their backcourt trio of De’Aaron Fox, Stephon Castle, and Dylan Harper, which is fair, but also not really.
Fox has had a strong season, but his 1.6 OBPM is nothing special for a point guard. Harper has been excellent for a rookie point guard, but the rookie point guard caveat exists for a reason. And Stephon Castle, who people adore, has 0.3 OBPM due to below-average scoring efficiency and an unsightly 3.2 turnovers per game. The Spurs’ backcourt has been a real plus, but none of them have been so good as to suck all the oxygen out of the room.
Meanwhile, the Spurs’ wings have been an absolutely lethal combination. With Champagnie, Johnson, and Vassell together on the court, the Spurs have a net rating of +14.47, and with all three off, it collapses to -11.97. Now, it’s not some crazy surprise that the Spurs fall apart when none of their three top wings are on the court, but individually, they’ve all been extremely positive as well.
Among qualified players, Wembanyama ranks first on the Spurs in on/off net rating, but he is followed by Champagnie at +10.8 and Vassell at +7.4. Johnson ranks tenth at -2.2, but that undersells his contributions. He has yet to start a game, and his on-court net rating is a still excellent +5.2. Needless to say, the Spurs wings have been driving winning just as much as anyone on the team, not named Victor.
Tres Alas aren’t just popping in the on/off metrics; they’ve had individually excellent seasons. Champagnie is averaging 11.2 points per game on a TS% 5% better than league average, while taking 6.4 threes per game. Vassell is averaging 14.6 points per game at league-average efficiency and leads the team with 6.6 3-point attempts per game. And Johnson is averaging 13 points per game on a TS% 9% better than league average.
The 3-point shooting and spacing that the Spurs wings have provided this season have been crucial. The trio has combined to attempt 39.18% of the Spurs’ total 3-point attempts, while they’ve hit 42.68% of all their 3-point field goals. In many respects, Castle and Harper have soared on the backs of their wings.
Moussa Diabate - Charlotte Hornets
The Hornets’ season can be broken into two halves. The half where they didn’t start Moussa Diabate, and the half where they did. On December 23rd, Diabate started his third game of the season, and the Hornets and he haven’t looked back. Prior to December 23rd, the Hornets were 9-20 with a net rating of -4.1, and since then, they’re 23-11 with a net rating of +11.1. For the season, the Hornets are +11.85 points per 100 possessions better with Diabate on the court. To mix metaphors, the Moose got loose and kicked the Hornets’ nest.
Much like Neemias Queta, Moussa Diabate’s contributions pop in the on/off data. His season averages of 8.4 points, 8.7 rebounds, and 1.0 blocks per game on a TS% 16% better than the league average fall into the low-usage replacement level center bucket. For comparison’s sake, Deandre Ayton is averaging 12.8 points, 8.3 rebounds, and 0.9 blocks per game on a TS% 17% better than the league average, but unlike the Moose, the Lakers are -5.4 points per 100 possessions worse with him on the court.
Diabate isn’t the Hornets’ most important player, but he seems to be the rug that ties the room together. For our “I shit you not,” stat of the day, in 339 minutes, the combination of LaMelo Ball, Kon Knueppel, Brandon Miller, and Diabate has an on-court net rating of +27.06. Preposterous doesn’t even begin to describe it. However, when you remove Diabate from the equation, in 233 minutes, the Knueppel, Miller, and Ball trio has a net rating of +0.17.
Obviously, there is some variance driving these figures, but that doesn’t change the fact that the Hornets go from, “Now, I am become death, the destroyer of worlds,” to the Atlanta “we’re 2,895-2,895 in our last 5,790 games” Hawks. The Hornets have been one of the best teams in the league for over two months and will be a hot topic of conversation down the stretch. This is the greatest in-season glow-up since the 2021-22 Boston Celtics, and it all started with unleashing the Moose.
Jaylon Tyson - Cleveland Cavaliers
The Cleveland Cavaliers went from the most disappointing team of the season to a Finals favorite in the span of a few weeks. While the acquisition of James Harden pushed the prediction markets in their favor, the real work began in late December. Following a loss to the Houston Rockets, the Cavaliers were 17-16, and the play-in looked like it could be in their future. Since then, they’ve gone 22-8, and the contributions of Jaylon Tyson have been a godsend.
Tyson doesn’t have eye-popping on/off splits; it’s basically zero, but he fills a tremendous position of need for a Cavaliers team that has the highest of aspirations. He’s averaging 13.6 points, 5.3 rebounds, and 2.2 assists per game on a TS% 7% better than the league average, and his 45.8% 3-point shooting is third in the league. On top of his excellent floor spacing, his solid defense has provided the Cavaliers with the 3-and-D wing they desperately needed in the wake of Max Strus’ injury.
However, Tyson isn’t your standard 3-and-D catch-and-shoot stiff. He was an on-ball monster in college, and those skills, although toned down, have translated to the NBA. He can create a shot and finish at three levels. You don’t want to run your offense through him all night, but having a wing who can actually self-create a paint touch or two is a huge benefit. For a second-year wing to have an OBPM of 0.9 is pretty incredible.
We’ll see what the Cavaliers do when Strus returns, but I seriously doubt it’ll lead to a benching for Tyson. He has earned his minutes, and his emergence is huge for the franchise. The Cavaliers are pot-committed to this core and desperately need to hit on the limit draft picks to round out an incredibly expensive roster. Tyson counts as a massive hit, and if the Cavaliers make a run to the Finals, there will almost assuredly be a Jaylon Tyson game along the way.
For any inquiries about work, discussion, and the like, you can email me at nevin.l.brown@gmail.com.