NBA New Year Check-Up Part 1: The bottom feeders
It’s a new year but the same season. Here’s how every NBA team is doing
As we enter 2025, the NBA season is inching closer and closer to its middle. Every team has played between 31 and 34 games (as I write this, maybe not as you read it), and many statistical markers have begun to solidify. Injuries will occur and trades will happen, but by and large, we know exactly how good teams are. This doesn’t mean no noise is present, but rather, we know noise isn’t completely deceiving us. Using net rating as my guide, I’ll work from the bottom of the league to the top.
Part one will contain the six worst teams by net rating, also known as the Wizards, Pelicans, Trail Blazers, Jazz, Raptors, and Hornets. There’s not a ton to dig in on some of these teams, but a few are here by accident and not on purpose.
(All stats as of January 1st)
Washington Wizards: -12.7 Net Rating // 6-25 Record
The Wizards are the worst team in the league. They’ve consistently trotted out incredibly young lineups while leaving solid, if uninspiring, veterans in reserve roles. It’s a good strategy during a rebuild and doesn’t require us to take a deeper look. Hopefully, they’re able to trade all of Jordan Poole, Kyle Kuzma, Jonas Valancunas, and Malcolm Brogdon, but even if they can’t, they’re in poll position, from an efficiency standpoint, to land the best lottery odds in the 2025 Draft.
New Orleans Pelicans: -11.4 Net Rating // 5-29
There’s the injury bug, and then there is whatever Kaiju bit the Pelicans this season. The Pelicans’ quartet of Zion Williamson, Brandon Ingram, Dejounte Murray, and Trey Murphy III have played a grand total of zero minutes together. However, while injuries are an easy excuse for the Pelicans’ struggles, it doesn’t fully explain a -11.4 net rating.
Injuries have prevented the formation of Bayou Voltron, but they’ve still gotten at least 17 games from Ingram, Murray, Murphy, CJ McCollum, and Herb Jones. That’s enough talent, playing enough games that they should have more than five wins. Their point differential says they should have seven wins, but even more bad luck is at play.
The Pelicans have a league-worst effective field goal percentage (eFG%) of .504 and are surrendering the second-highest eFG% to their opponents (.566). The primary driver of their league-worst eFG% difference is unsustainable 3-point shooting variance. The Pelicans’ 33.3% 3-point shooting is the fifth-worst mark, and their opponent 3-point shooting of 37.4% is sixth-worst. That should normalize and bring their net rating up with it. However, the damage to their season has been done.
The Pelicans were hit by a category-5 shitstorm. The combination of injuries, bad luck in close games, and poor shooting variance sunk their season before it ever could get going. They should play significantly better in 2025, but at this point, it might make sense to follow the Wizards’ path and collect ping-pong balls.
Portland Trail Blazers: -9.4 Net Rating // 11-21
The Trail Blazers’ 11-21 record is a full three wins better than their expected record of 8-24. While it’s always nice to squeeze a few extra victories out for the fans, it can become an unwelcome burden when you’re tanking for the best possible draft pick. There’s not much more to say about the Blazers. They’re a bad team with a bad record and that’s exactly what they were designed to be. Unfortunately, a few of their veteran trade candidates have underperformed which could see them held through the trade deadline for lack of a suitable return. While the struggles of Deandre Ayton, Anfernee Simmons, and Jerami Grant have thus far helped them be on a collision for a top-five pick, it could also see them saddled with solid veterans who experience a bounceback in the second half.
Utah Jazz: -9.1 Net Rating // 7-25
Will Hardy has been able to cobble together lineups that punch above their weight the past two seasons but has had no such luck in 2024-25. The Jazz’s defense has always been a mess under his stewardship, but it’s their insistence on starting Keyonte George at point guard that leaves them dead on arrival most nights. Collin Sexton and/or Jordan Clarkson would do a far better job running the offense, but it appears Hardy has the directive to let the 21-year-old George sink or swim as he figures out the NBA. I don’t fault the Jazz for prioritizing the future, and much like the Wizards and Blazers, their poor efficiency metrics are by design. There’s a marginally better team here, but, unfortunately, the NBA rewards -9.0 net ratings far more than -4.0.
Toronto Raptors: -7.4 Net Rating // 8-26
The Raptors are the Pelicans-lite. This is a team that should be better, but injuries have prevented them from ever being whole, largely because Immanuel Quickley has only featured in four games. However, unlike the Pelicans, even a fully operational version of the Raptors didn’t have the potential to win a playoff series. Going forward, the Raptors should be much closer to a .500 side than they’ve shown. They’ve been an excellent offensive rebounding team and Quickley running point should help their shooting efficiency and turnover issues tremendously. This is still going to be a middling team at best, but there are the bones of a competent side. It probably won’t happen this season with the start they’ve had, but this should be a team competing for the playoffs in the East next season. Damning with faint praise.
Charlotte Hornets: -6.7 Net Rating // 7-25
The Hornets have the second-worst offense in the league (107.7) but the 18th-best defense (114.4). None of this is surprising for a team with a -6.7 net rating, but it is when you consider that they have LaMelo Ball. The narrative around Ball as an unserious player is more of a conversation about his public persona than his on-court impact. Yes, Ball is a goofy kid, but he is one hell of a hooper. His 6.0 offensive box plus/minus is the fifth-best in the league and the Hornets’ offense improves by 10.5 points per 100 possessions with him on the court. His ludicrous usage of 39.1% gives off the air of a merciless chucker fiending for points, but he has the highest true shooting of anyone on the Hornets with a usage rate over 18% (min. 200 minutes). Simply put, Ball is working overtime to keep the Hornets’ offense out of the 2000s.
The Hornets do have some upward mobility should they want it. As long as Ball stays healthy, their offense should improve when they start getting more production out of their supporting cast. They have the third-worst eFG% in the league, but enough talent to move up a few clicks. It won’t make them a playoff team, but there’s enough talent for the Hornets to right the ship and play at a 35-win pace the rest of the season.
For any inquiries about work, discussion, and the like you can email me at nevin.l.brown@gmail.com.