NBA New Year Check-Up Part 2: The Dead Zone
It’s a new year but the same season. Here’s how every NBA team is doing
We’re a week into the New Year and the NBA is picking up narrative steam. The Thunder and Cavaliers continue to pile up wins like a recluse hoards newspapers, Jimmy Butler and Pat Riley are engaged in a very public dick-measuring contest, and Mike Brown of the Sacramento Kings became the first coaching casualty. But narrative isn’t the only thing rounding into form. Stats are as well.
Enough games have been played that many statistical markers have begun to solidify, which gives us a great opportunity to see where the league stands. Injuries and trades will always be a wrench in the machine of big data, but by and large, what we’ve seen, is what we’ll get. This is part two of the NBA New Year check-up, covering the teams ranked 24th to 19th in net rating, aka the Brooklyn Nets, Philadelphia 76ers, Chicago Bulls, Atlanta Hawks, Phoenix Suns, and Detroit Pistons. In part one, I covered the Wizards, Pelicans, Trail Blazers, Jazz, Raptors, and Hornets. You can check it out if you’d like.
Brooklyn Nets: -6.1 Net Rating // 13-23 Record
The Brooklyn Nets have been the most active team in the trade market and that’s unlikely to change. They sent Denis Schroder to the Warriors on December 15th and then moved Dorian Finney-Smith and Shake Milton to the Lakers for D’Angelo Russell. Cameron Johnson continues to play excellently and should garner serious interest, and there is no one on the roster that the Nets wouldn’t move for the right price.
In many respects, the start of the Nets’ season has been an utter disaster. As a tangential move to the Mikal Bridges trade in the Summer, the Nets sent three unprotected Phoenix Suns picks/swaps to the Houston Rockets to acquire their own picks in 2025 and 2026. The plan for this season was to tank hard, and while they’ve been bad, they only own the seventh-worst record in the league.
What has kept the Nets out of league basement has been their average-ish ability to convert shots and their elite ability to force turnovers on defense. It’s a minor miracle this roster, even before the trades, was able to muster an eFG% of 53.5%, but that needs to change fast. To make up ground on the teams featured in part one, the Nets have to be near the bottom in just about everything. While lowering their defensive turnover rate is a much easier button for the coaching staff to push, it isn’t nearly as large a factor in their competency as their better-than-expected shot-making.
First-year head coach Jordi Fernandez should be lauded for the job he has done, but he also needs to rip off an epic losing streak. This Nets season is reminiscent of the previous two Jazz seasons, which would count as an utter disaster. I expect the Nets will move Johnson and Russell before the deadline and try to send their net rating into the negative double-digits.
Philadelphia 76ers: -3.4 Net Rating // 14-20 Record
As you can see, there is a sizable gap between the Nets and Philadelphia 76ers in net rating and the two teams should not be considered on equal footing. That being said, the start of the Sixers’ season has been an unmitigated disaster. Due to a rash of injuries to Joel Embiid, Tyrese Maxey, and Paul George, the Sixers limped to a 2-12 start with a -8.9 net rating, but have gone 12-8 with a +0.5 net rating over their past 20 games. Health has allowed the Sixers to right the ship, but their season is still in real peril.
A +0.5 net rating will make you a playoff team in the Eastern Conference, but the Sixers were built to compete for a title. While Embiid, Maxey, and George have only played 192 minutes together, they’ve only managed a +6.26 net rating in those minutes and a 110.3 offensive rating. For a star-laden big-three, a net rating of +6 is a cause for concern. Out of 545 3-man lineups to play over 190 minutes together, it ranks 243rd in net rating.
The Sixers weathered incredibly poor 3-point shooting variance over their first 14 games, hence the 2-12 start, but have seen it normalize over their past 20. It’s fair to believe that the Sixers are better than a 35.7% 3-point shooting team (their mark over the past 20 games) when the league average is 35.9%, but positive regression isn’t a silver bullet.
Each of Maxey, Embiid, and George have shot well below their previously established efficiency levels, but I wouldn’t just assume a bounceback. George is 34 and has injured the same knee twice this season. Embiid has looked compromised as he comes back from another lower-body injury. And Tyrese Maxey is now being asked to shoulder a considerably larger offensive load due to Embiid and George’s struggles.
The Sixers are substantially better than their net rating of -3.4 and are likely far better than the +0.5 mark they’ve posted over the past 20 games. However, this doesn’t look like a side that will get to the level of a championship contender. The potential is undoubtedly there, but time and excuses are running out.
Chicago Bulls: -3.1 Net Rating // 17-19 Record
The Bulls have earned their -3.1 net rating in the most fun fashion possible. They’re 15th in offensive efficiency at 112.9 points per 100 possessions, eighth in eFG% (55.6%), and second in pace (104.0) and 3-point attempt rate (.476). The defense is a mess, but this roster employs maybe one plus defender, so that’s life. To Billy Donovan’s credit, he has remade this team in the image of his players. Last season, led by DeMar DeRozan on offense, the Bulls played incredibly slow, took very few threes, and hardly ever turned the ball over, which is exactly how you’d describe DeRozan’s game. Now, to maximize this team’s offense, Donovan has emboldened his players to bomb from three and push the tempo, which is a good idea when you have a bunch of solid 3-point shooters and Lonzo Ball and Josh Giddey to spam hit-ahead passes.
As much fun as the Bulls have been (relatively to expectations), regression is almost certainly coming for Nikola Vucevic (42.4%) and Zach LaVine (44.7%) from beyond the arc. Hopefully, said regression comes on another team because the Bulls should be rebuilding, and Vucevic and LaVine are dragging their offense to mediocrity and the thick of the Eastern Conference play-in race. Unfortunately, LaVine and Vucevic, while still very productive, are both on less-than-ideal contracts. It will be difficult to get any value back for the pair, but simply moving on from them will help improve the Bulls’ lottery odds. This is a worse-than-mediocre team that is at least fun to watch, but it would really behoove the franchise to be a truly awful team in the second half.
Atlanta Hawks: -2.4 Net Rating // 19-18 Record
After a 7-11 start, the Hawks ripped off a run from late November into mid-December where they went 7-1, beating the Cavaliers twice, the Bucks, and the Knicks. It felt like a turning point, but they’ve gone 5-6 since, as .500 teams usually do. However, the Hawks are probably better than their -2.4 net rating. During their 7-11 start they posted a -5.3 net rating and were largely without De’Andre Hunter and Bogdan Bogdanovic. Since then, they’ve gone 12-7 with a +0.4 net rating, and the Hawks are 16-10 in games that Hunter has played.
As long as the Hawks stay relatively healthy and don’t trade off pieces, they should continue to hover around .500 with a slightly positive net rating, which should be more than enough to make the Eastern Conference play-in. The only player the Hawks cannot afford to lose for an extended stretch is Trae Young. While Young is having his worst scoring season since his rookie year, his league-leading assist percentage (48.9%) is the only thing the Hawks’ offense has going for it. With Young on the court, the Hawks have an offensive rating of 116.81, but without him, it crumbles to 103.37. If he can regain his scoring stroke, the Hawks’ offense has a chance to move up from 16th, but without him, you’re looking at a bottom-five unit.
Phoenix Suns: -2.2 Net Rating // 16-19 Record
If it weren’t for the Sixers’ early season struggles and Jimmy Butler’s trade demand, the Suns’ dim start would be getting more shade. The Suns’ started the season 9-2, but all the statheads out there knew trouble was lurking beneath the surface. Five of the Suns’ nine wins were by five points or less, and their net rating of +2.7, while solid, suggested their gaudy record was a mirage. Throw in their sizeable 3-point efficiency advantage and inability to win the possession battle (offensive rebounds and turnovers) over that span, and the Suns’ shining start was built on a house of cards. Great teams beat teams across the board, not just in close games through sheer shot-making.
However, the obvious cracks were obscured when Kevin Durant suffered a calf injury in their game against the Dallas Mavericks. Without Durant, the Suns went 1-6 with a net rating of -10.1. While it was easy to chalk up their struggles to being without their best player, their underlying performance suggested this was a team with serious issues, and this cycle would continue. Durant came back for four games, the Suns went 3-1 with a shooting luck-aided net rating of +9.1, and then Durant missed three games that were all Suns’ losses.
Finally, the Suns’ issues came to light. Durant returned on December 13th from his second absence, and the Suns have gone 4-8 with a net rating of -4.8 since. On the season, the Suns have a net rating of -2.16 with Durant on the court and a net rating of -2.28 without him. So while their record when Durant starts is 15-10, that’s likely a significant overperformance considering their underlying efficiency.
The problem the Suns face is one of roster construction. The Suns scooped up Tyus Jones in the offseason on a minimum, and while he is an excellent low-usage point guard, he’s a poor defender and left the Suns with a starting lineup of Durant, Jones, Devin Booker, Bradley Beal, and Jusuf Nurkic. The lineup, in 119 minutes, has a net rating of -18.25 and a defensive rating of 126.3.
The situation has become so dire that the Suns moved Bradley Beal to the bench to try and regain some balance. The jury’s still out on that decision, but it shows how poor roster construction can force you to grasp for straws. All that being said, the Suns are likely better than a -2.2 net rating. Devin Booker has had a poor shooting season, which is likely to regress to his career averages, and Mike Budenholzer should be able to find a way for their defense to get out of the bottom third. However, this a team with championship aspirations and those dreams are as far away as the Sun right now. Even if everything goes right for the Suns over the remainder of the season, they’re nowhere close to being a threat in the West.
Detroit Pistons: -1.8 Net Rating // 18-18 Record
It’s amazing what having a competent coach and solid veterans can do for a young team. Last season, the Pistons had neither and finished the season 14-68. While they’ve benefitted from good luck, their expected record is 16-20 and they’re in the East, the Pistons of 2024-25 are much improved. Cade Cunningham, in my opinion, is still miscast as a high-usage offensive engine, but the additions of Tobias Harris and Malik Beasley have at least given him enough room to be passable in that role. With so much riding on his development, it was wise of the Pistons to give him the spacing to breathe.
The Pistons’ 18th-ranked offense looks to be close to their true talent level, especially with Jaden Ivey out for the year, but their 19th-ranked defense should see some improvement. The biggest drag on the Pistons’ defense is their 23rd-ranked defensive eFG%, but a big driver of that is opponents are shooting 38.1% from three, the second-highest mark in the league. While this isn’t a team blessed with great perimeter defenders, there’s very little chance that is their true talent level. A league-average defense is certainly within their grasp.
The Pistons are looking a lot like the Rockets of last season. They took a team with some interesting young talent, added a real coach and solid veterans to fill in the gaps and suddenly they’re around .500. It wouldn’t shock me if the Pistons finished the season at exactly 41-41 like the Rockets did last season, although it would shock me if they were able to equal that team’s +1.1 net rating. I don’t think the Pistons will get out of the play-in, but they should at least get to play a game 83, which is a monumental improvement over last season debacle.
For any inquiries about work, discussion, and the like you can email me at nevin.l.brown@gmail.com.