NBA New Year Check-Up Part 3: The Battle of Mid-Tier
It’s a new year but the same season. Here’s how every NBA team is doing
The NBA just had its best regular season game in years. The Oklahoma City Thunder and Cleveland Cavaliers, owners of the two best records in the league, gave basketball fans the back-and-forth title fight we all crave. It was a rousing affair, and as much as I’d like to talk about them, I have to get through the ghastly middle-class of the NBA.
In parts one and two of my NBA New Year Check-Up, I covered the bottom 12 teams in net rating. Now, we’re finally entering the belly of the beast, and we’ll get to see some teams with positive net ratings. In part three, I cover the Lakers, Spurs, Pacers, Clippers, Warriors, and Heat.
Los Angeles Lakers: -2.2 Net Rating // 20-16 Record
The good news is the Lakers are somehow 20-16 with a -2.2 net rating. The bad news is the Lakers have the largest difference in the league between their actual record and their expected record (16-20). The primary reason there is such a massive disconnect between the Lakers’ actual record and their expected record is they’ve suffered some significant blowouts. Six of their 16 losses have seen them post a -20 or worse net rating, with a -43 net rating in their loss to the Memphis Grizzlies. If we just remove that one game, their net rating improves to -1.01, according to my back-of-the-envelope calculations.
However, blowout excuse-making aside, this Lakers team is mediocre. Their one saving grace, as has been the case for years now, is they absolutely dominate the free throw battle. Per 100 possessions, the Lakers convert a league-high 4.3 more free throws than their opponents, which means everything else they’re doing adds up to -6.5 points per 100 possessions. Simply being average everywhere else would vault them into the periphery of contention.
It should be noted that the Lakers did just add Dorian Finney-Smith and the early returns have been promising. With Finney-Smith on the court, the Lakers have a net rating of +11.54 and an offensive rating of 128.6. However, there are some massive caveats. He has only played 122 minutes, the Lakers are shooting 45.56% from three, and their offensive rebounding rate spikes from 21.6% to 30.3% with him on the court. Considering Finney-Smith has never shown to have a massive effect on his team’s offensive rebounding, it’s safe to assume it’s a small sample-size blip.
Chances are, the Lakers are just a .500 team the rest of the way, and I don’t see reinforcements coming. Flipping D’Angelo Russell for Finney-Smith makes targeting a significant upgrade almost untenable, and expecting Jarred Vanderbilt and Christian Wood to save your season after lengthy injury absences is an insult to wishful thinking. The sad part is this team could be a contender. LeBron James is 40 and still an All-Star caliber player, and Anthony Davis has played at an All-NBA level. The Lakers should be going for it. Instead, they’re using a fluky 20-16 record to pretend they’re small moves on the margins away from something.
San Antonio Spurs: -0.5 Net Rating // 18-19 Record
The San Antonio Spurs might not make the play-in this season, they’re currently in tenth, but they will be in the mix as long as Victor Wembanyama stays healthy. Wembanyama is currently fourth in BPM (7.4) and first in defensive BPM (3.4). With him on the court, the Spurs have a +5.04 net rating and 109.93 defensive rating, but without him, those figures slip to -9.33 and 117.56. Needless to say, he should take home Defensive Player of the Year and receive down-ballot MVP votes.
The rest of the Spurs roster is average to poor, but it simply doesn’t matter when you employ a transformative player. Wembanyama is the best defensive talent I’ve ever seen, and he still isn’t even good at defense yet. Yes, Wembanyama still isn’t even a good defender as his positioning and anticipation are raw, but his sheer physical gifts make him the most impactful defender in the league. On offense, his ability to space the floor allows the Spurs to cram all sorts of players into their backcourt and frontcourt, and when they do decide to surround him with maximum spacing, he’s an unstoppable threat around the rim. There are still some shot-selection issues and he too easily turns the ball over, but those are small blemishes when you look at the entire picture.
It’s unlikely the Spurs will do much to improve their roster, but I wouldn’t rule out Wembanyama continuing to level up throughout the season. I don’t think they’ll become a real threat to win a playoff series, but I wouldn’t rule it out either. Generational talents break the rules. That’s why they’re generational. The Spurs are a bad team held up by an Atlas-level talent. It might not be this year, but very soon, the Spurs are going to be a force to be reckoned with.
Indiana Pacers: -0.3 Net Rating // 20-18 Record
After a 10-15 start, the Pacers have begun to right the ship and look like the team we expected. Their -0.3 net rating (16th) and 115.9 offensive rating (9th) are significant steps back from last season, but over their past 13 games, they’ve gone 10-3 with a net rating of +7.0 and an offensive rating of 120.7. Just like their success last season, the Pacers’ resurgence has been powered by Tyrese Haliburton.
Over Haliburton’s first 25 games, he averaged 17.5 points and 8.4 assists per game on 42% shooting and 33.6% 3-point shooting as the Pacers struggled. Over his past 13 games, he is averaging 20.1 points and 9.8 assists per game on 48.1% shooting and 41% shooting from three. Unsurprisingly, when Haliburton is right, the Pacers are right. In games where he has a game score above 19.0, the Pacers are 14-2.
Considering Haliburton’s struggles and injuries entering the season, it’s a safe bet that their past 13 games are a better representation of the team’s true talent level. While it’s unlikely they’ll maintain a net rating of +7.0, I wouldn’t be surprised if they keep producing an offensive rating around 120 for the rest of the season. The Pacers appear to be back on track and poised to fight for the fourth seed in the Eastern Conference, which sounds pretty close to their preseason expectations.
Los Angeles Clippers: +0.6 Net Rating // 20-17 Record
The Clippers making it through 37 games with a net rating of +0.6 is a small miracle. Just last season, they finished with a net rating of +3.4 with full healthy seasons from Paul George and Kawhi Leonard. Now, George is in Philadelphia, and Leonard has played 40 total minutes due to a balky knee. Ty Lue deserves a ton of credit for building an incredible defense (109.8, 5th) and getting just enough out of James Harden and Norman Powell on offense (110.4, 22nd) to stay in the black.
With Kawhi Leonard ramping up his minutes, the Clippers have some upward mobility, and they’ll probably need it to stay in the playoff race. The Clippers’ defense has been excellent, but it’d be a stretch to think they can maintain a 34.6% opponent 3-point shooting mark all season. If Leonard is 80% of what he was last season, the Clippers have a good chance to claim the sixth seed and avoid the play-in altogether.
The floor for the Clippers is a .500 team with a nasty defense, and their ceiling will be defined by how good Leonard is upon his return to real minutes. It’s highly unlikely they’ll vault into the championship conversation, but it’s not out of the question. A fully operational Kawhi should help boost Harden’s poor efficiency. I don’t know if there is enough shooting on the roster to get to a top-10 offense, but if they can get there, the Clippers could be a real threat to win a playoff series.
Golden State Warriors: +0.7 Net Rating // 18-18 Record
I’m old enough to remember when the Warriors were world-beaters. No, I’m not talking about 2017, I’m talking about this past November. The Warriors opened the season on a 12-3 run with a net rating of +9.8. You don’t need to be a statistical genius to know that’s really good. Unfortunately, since then, they’ve gone 6-15 with a net rating of -6.1. So the question is, how good are the Warriors?
Honestly, the Warriors are probably as good as their net rating (+0.7). While that feels like an unsatisfactory answer, 3-point shooting variance explains a lot of the Warriors’ inconsistent play. When the Warriors looked like title contenders, they shot 38.0% from 3-point range and held their opponents to 31.7% from beyond the arc. When the Warriors looked like lottery fodder, they shot 35.4% from three and held opponents to 37.7%. I think people have grown tired of the 3-point variance explanation, but too bad, it’s usually the answer.
The final thing of note I found interesting was the Warriors were excellent on the offensive boards (28.2% OReb%) when they were blitzing opponents, but have been much more average (25.7% OReb%) since. Kevon Looney, who leads the team in offensive rebounds, has seen a noticeable decline in offensive rebounds, even as the Warriors have missed more shots. Whether that was a conscious decision or his play has declined, the Warriors need every last edge they can get, and Looney eating on the offensive glass again would be huge.
The Warriors desperately need to swing a trade to add an impact talent. Their offense is so Steph Curry-dependent (119.8 On-court, 104.25 Off-court) that even a B-Tier star would dramatically improve their outlook. This is a mediocre team that could be great with the right infusion of talent. Denis Schroder was a good start, but it shouldn’t end there.
Miami Heat: +1.2 Net Rating // 18-17 Record
The Miami Heat’s decision to play hardball with Jimmy Butler has functionally nuked their season. At 18-17, with a +1.2 net rating, the Heat are a solid playoff team in the Eastern Conference. Tyler Herro is having the best season of his career, Bam Adebayo remains a defensive stalwart, and Erik Spoelstra is as sharp as ever, but the culture just isn’t the same without Jimmy Butler.
While Butler might have lost a step since his prime, he remains a wildly effective player. With him on the court, the Heat have a net rating of +5.1 and an offensive rating of 120.15, and without him, they have a net rating of -1.04 and an offensive rating of 109.64. For a team right on the edge, every single marginal advantage matters, and they’re stuck in an awful bind.
If the Heat move Butler, they’ll be worse. If the Heat bench Butler, they’ll be worse. And if the Heat play Butler, they’ll be worse. The standoff between the two sides has led to a seven-game suspension, and Butler’s decision to quit on the Heat to facilitate a trade away has all but ended the Heat’s chance to make any noise in the playoffs. Until the issue resolves itself, it’s difficult to know exactly how they’ll fare.
Assuming Butler doesn’t play for the Heat again, there’s a good chance the Heat will end the season in the back half of the play-in bracket. That’s an unfortunate end in a season where Tyler Herro finally lived up to his contract and it’s another wasted year of Adebayo’s prime. The Heat won’t fall apart without Butler, but they’re a decidedly worse team. Chances are they’ll finish the season with a net rating of around +0.0. In the East, that should get you into the play-in, but it’s a far cry from where the franchise wants to be.
For any inquiries about work, discussion, and the like you can email me at nevin.l.brown@gmail.com.