NBA Playoffs Small Sample Efficiency Check: Philadelphia 76ers
An in-depth look at the Sixers' underlying metrics from their first-round sweep of the Brooklyn Nets
When the playoffs begin, the last thing fans want to hear are small sample-size excuses. But the truth remains, a seven-game series is, by definition, a small sample. While making mountains out of statistical molehills is part of what makes this time of year fun, it can also lead to some seriously misguided optimism or doubts in teams as they advance. Throughout the playoffs, I will be checking in on a team’s underlying efficiency metrics to see what’s for real and what’s unsustainable. To kick things off, we’ll be looking at the only team to sweep their first-round series, the Philadelphia 76ers.
Philadelphia 76ers at a Glance
The city of brotherly love is home to the NBA playoff leader in net rating at +12.5. Going by the surface-level numbers, the Sixers looked primed to make a serious run at the championship. The combination of an offensive rating of 115.6 and a defensive rating of 103.1 suggests a dominant team, but there are a few concerns for them going forward.
While the Sixers were the three seed in the East, they likely faced the worst team in the playoffs. The sixth-seeded Brooklyn Nets’ 45-37 record came courtesy of the departed superstar duo of Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving. With one of those two on the court, the Nets posted at least a net rating of 4.21, and without them, that figure tumbled to -4.24. While minutes featuring the newly acquired Spencer Dinwiddie (via the Kyrie trade), Mikal Bridges, and Cameron Johnson (via the Durant trade) were highly productive (+7.21 net rating), it was only in a brief 546-minute sample. For simple yet elegant analysis, in the 32 games the Nets played without Durant and Irving, they went 15-17. That might get you in the play-in, but it’d be the worst win percentage of any playoff team. In a funny twist of fate, if Phoenix fails to make a deep run, it may be the Sixers who won the Durant and Irving trades.
The 76ers’ Offensive Metrics, Concerns, and Optimism
There are a few areas of concern I have with the Sixers’ offensive performance against the Nets. First, their offensive rating is propped up by their game-one 3-point shooting explosion. The Sixers shot 48.8% on 3-pointers en route to a franchise record 21 made threes. A single-game offensive rating of 137 carries a lot of weight in a four-game sample and makes up for two sub-110 offensive ratings. Eliminating any team’s best performance is unfair, but their median offensive rating clocks in at 111.8.
The Nets were a slightly below-average defensive team this season, and Philly’s offensive rating was buttressed by an offensive rebounding percentage (ORB%) of 31.2%. For a team that finished the regular season at 21.6% (26th), that’s unlikely to hold up, and defensive rebounding was always the weakest link in the Nets’ defensive armor. Paul Reed was Philly’s primary driver on the offensive glass. His 29.1% ORB% was a godsend for the Sixer’s second unit, and without it, their 109.15 offensive rating without Embiid would look a lot more concerning. A second unit with more rebounding ability could make the Sixers’ second unit a massive liability.
However, there are plenty of areas where the Sixers should see some upticks. Their playoff effective field goal percentage (eFG%) of 52.9% is well below their regular season mark of 56.3%, and their free throws per field goal attempt (FT/FGA) of .155 is way off of their league-leading mark of .250.
The Nets, to their credit, did a masterful job of muting Joel Embiid’s impact in the series through a wave of double teams and thus, the Sixers’ free throw generation and shooting efficiency. Embiid went from averaging 20.1 field goal attempts in the regular season to 13.0 and saw his efficiency drop. Fewer shots at decreased efficiency is how you take the NBA’s scoring champ went from 33.1 points per game to 20.
However, the plan to slow down Embiid came at the expense of actually slowing down the Sixers. With Embiid on the court, the Sixers posted an offensive rating of 122.17. The Nets selling out to stop Embiid worked at stopping Embiid, but teams with title aspirations will be a bit more focused on a strategy that actually works.
The elephant in the room is James Harden. In a series where Embiid is getting doubled out of the game, Harden theoretically should feast, but against the Nets, it was primarily famine. His 17.3 points and 8.8 assists per game masked some truly pathetic shooting efficiency. Harden’s eFG% of 44.8% simply won’t cut it and was propped up by 42.4% 3-point shooting, of which seven of his 14 makes came in game one. Outside of game one, he shot 35% from three to pair with 26.5% shooting on twos and only attempted 11 free throws in 144 minutes. If a player is shooting over 40% on 3-pointers at volume and is still well below league average in eFG%, that’s cause for concern.
As has been the case for more years than people are willing to admit, Harden is an excellent passer. He could rarely shoot, and his passing is strong enough to keep him afloat. However, to be a true co-star, he’ll need to shoot the rock effectively. So, what should we expect from Harden going forward?
Post-prime James Harden will never be league average on 2-pointers, but that doesn’t really matter. In the regular season, he combined elite free throw generation, massive 3-point volume and efficiency, and elite playmaking en route to a fantastic offensive season.
Against the Nets, he checked two of those boxes, playmaking and 3-point shooting, but he fell well short of what’s necessary inside the arc and at the line. Harden has always struggled to maintain his regular season free throw generation in the playoffs, but going from a free throw rate of .429 to .164 would far outpace his career norm. Even if playoff refereeing cuts out some of his more obnoxious free throw pandering, it won’t cut it to this degree.
Inside the arc, Harden can only go up. He shot 23.1% on shots zero to three feet from the rim and 15.4% on shots three to ten feet. Considering those shots account for 38.8% of his total shots and 76.5% of his 2-pointers, he has a ton of low-hanging buckets to build up his efficiency within the arc. There’s a ton of easy room for improvement for Harden to capitalize on, which is scary for a player who posted an offensive box plus-minus of 1.3 while shooting like a blind man.
While Joel Embiid and James Harden saw their production dip, Tobias Harris and Tyrese Maxey picked up the slack and powered the Sixers to a sweep. Maxey averaged 21.8 points per game on 60.1% true shooting, and Harris scorched the nets to 20.3 points per game on 63.3% true shooting. With all of the defensive attention Embiid was garnering, Maxey and Harris had a steady slew of good looks, but they didn’t just hit open shots. The pair showcased their impressive shot-making all series, and without it, the Sixers might be hosting a game five.
Offensively, the Sixers have way more questions to answer than is usual following a tidy series sweep. Can the Nets’ blueprint for slowing Embiid be effective on a teamwide level in more talented hands? Is James Harden completely washed as a scorer? Can Tyese Maxey and Tobias Harris continue to play at an All-Star level? The answer to all of these questions is probably no, but to what degree will determine the Sixers’ playoff offensive punch. And remember, they swept the series.
The 76ers’ Defensive Metrics, Concerns, and Optimism
While there are plenty of questions about Philly’s offense going forward, their defense has been rock solid. A defensive rating of 103.1 won’t hold throughout the playoffs, but the Sixers having a dominant defense just might. The Nets, post Durant and Irving, were a poor shooting and offensive rebounding team but made up for it by taking care of the ball and getting to the line. The Sixers made them an even worse shooting and rebounding team, forced them to cough up the ball more, and neutralized their free-throw generation.
There are a few caveats to the Sixers’ defensive dominance. The most obvious has to do with the Nets’ personnel. No playoff team should have Spencer Dinwiddie as their lead ball handler. Dinwiddie is a good player, but he is a sixth man or secondary ball handler on a good team. Mikal Bridges is also miscast as a go-to scorer. He had an impressive first half of game one before petering out and is more suited to be a team’s second-best scorer in the mold of Jaylen Brown. Holding the Nets to 103.1 points per 100 possessions is excellent, but this was probably the dullest attack in the NBA playoffs.
An area of concern has to do with pace. The Sixers and Nets series has been the slowest series of the playoffs thus far. An 89.7 pace harkens back a mere 20 years ago when dinosaurs roamed the Earth, and playing slow is the Sixers’ natural habitat. Their 96.9 regular season pace was the fourth slowest in the league, but when the game sped up, the Sixers slowed down. In games where the pace exceeded 102, the Sixers went 6-6. A lot of that has to do with poor transition defense. Their 1.17 points allowed per possession in transition was the sixth worst in the league and the worst of any playoff team.
The Sixers were able to limit the Nets to 16.3 transition possessions per game and 1.09 points per possession. Meanwhile, the Celtics, the Sixers' likely second-round foe, have managed 21.5 transition possessions per game and played at a 102.4 possession pace against the Hawks. Managing tempo will be critical for the Sixers’ defense, as transition opportunities are highly efficient. They were great at it against the Nets, but the better a team gets, the better they are at dictating the pace.
The final piece to the puzzle has to do with defensive rebounding. The Sixers absolutely owned the glass against the Nets. Not only did they pulverize them on the offensive glass, but they also posted a playoff-best defensive rebound rate of 86%. BREAKING NEWS: They are not going to do that again because no team can be that good for an extended stretch. The Celtics led the NBA in defensive rebounding percentage at 78.5%, and the Pacers finished last at 72.2%. In a league where the gap between the best and worst is 6.3%, the Sixers won’t continue to post defensive rebounding rates north of 80%.
The Nets were also incredibly easy pickings. They posted the second-worst offensive rebounding rate in the regular season at 19.6%, and that figure held steady even after their superstar exodus. The Sixers are a good defensive rebounding team, but against better competition, they’ll see more boards slip out of their grasp and eat into their defensive efficiency.
After four playoff games, the Sixers, to my eyes, haven’t convinced me they’re better than the Celtics or a full-strength Bucks. News that Joel Embiid may miss the beginning of their next series with a knee sprain further complicates their route out of the Eastern Conference. James Harden is a massive question mark, and their performance against the Nets wasn’t as resounding as it could have been.
The Sixers are still a very good team, and at full health can beat any team in a seven-game series. They easily took care of business against the Nets due to unsustainable rebounding and shooting from Harris and Maxey, but they have a fair amount of easy gains to capture in areas where they struggled. If Joel Embiid is healthy and James Harden can find any semblance of scoring consistency within the arc, their series against the Celtics will be one for the ages. I still won’t pick them to win it, but I wouldn’t be terribly surprised if they did.