NBA Playoffs Small Sample Efficiency Check: Phoenix Suns
The Suns' offense went supernova against the Clippers, but can they keep it up?
The Phoenix Suns punched their ticket to the second round following an anti-climatic finish to their series with the Los Angeles Clippers. After two games, the series was knotted at 1-1, and it looked like an all-time-great playoff series was forming. Unfortunately, Kawhi Leonard suffered a knee injury, joining Paul George in the Clippers’ MASH Unit, and the Clippers wouldn’t win again. What had the potential to be a back-and-forth series headlined by two of the best wings in NBA history quickly became a battle between a rag-tag group of NBA role-player rebels and a star-powered intergalactic Empire.
The Suns can only play who is in front of them, but the Clippers, without Leonard and George, are the Nets-West and would have had little shot at making the playoffs. The good news is the Suns beat the Clippers handily, posting a +6.5 net rating and a playoff-best offensive rating of 123.6. However, their defensive rating of 117.1 is 12th out of 16 teams, and every team beneath them has been eliminated except for the Atlanta Hawks, who may be eliminated tonight.
The very quick assessment of the Suns is their offense is amazing and their defense is porous. The slightly more nuanced assessment is how did the Suns not blow the brakes off a Russell Westbrook and Norman Powell-led team? Let’s take a look at some of the Suns' metrics to see if this team is really a title contender.
The Suns’ Defensive Metrics, Concerns, and Optimism
Using regular season metrics to discuss the Suns is extremely difficult. Their trade deadline deal to land Kevin Durant gave them unparalleled top-tier talent, but it practically vaporized their depth. To make matters worse, Durant was rehabbing from a sprained MCL at the time of the trade and then sprained his ankle three games into his Suns' tenure. By the end of the season, Durant had played a total of eight games in a Suns’ uniform. This gives more weight to their playoff statistics, but the whole experiment is in the small sample phase.
The Suns' defense should be a major concern for their title aspirations. A 117.1 defensive rating is ghastly and is even worse considering Kawhi Leonard only played two games in the series. Usually, when an undermanned team outperforms expectations shooting variance is to blame, but the Clippers' 52.9% eFG% in the series is middle of the pack. Instead, the Suns were incredibly vulnerable on the offensive glass, allowing a 26.8% offensive rebounding rate. The Clippers weren’t a strong offensive rebounding team during the regular season, which suggests the Durant-led Suns may have a vulnerability on the glass.
While getting killed on the offensive glass can be maddening, it can be overcome if you’re solid elsewhere. Unfortunately, the Suns' penchant for sending their opponents to the line followed them from the regular season into the playoffs. Their .246 defensive free throw to field goal attempt rate (FT/FGA) is the second highest (worst) of the playoffs and is a jump from their league-high regular season rate of .234. The Clippers did finish the regular season 11th in offensive FT/FGA at .211, but their top two free throw generators per game were Paul George and Kawhi Leonard. Monty Williams can complain to the referees all he wants. The Suns are going to send teams to the line.
Another concern has to do with their lack of depth. One of Chris Paul, Kevin Durant, Devin Booker, and Deandre Ayton were on the court for every minute except one against the Clippers. With that quartet on the court, they posted a net rating of +12.18. The Suns cannot weather foul trouble to their big four, which is bad news when you foul the bejeezus out of teams.
Not everything was bad news for the Suns’ defense. They were effective at limiting the quality of the Clippers' looks, kept them away from the rim, and were excellent at limiting corner threes. The Suns' defensive shot chart isn’t spectacular, but it was good enough against the Clippers that they shouldn’t expect teams to have sustained runs of excellent shooting. One warning area is 30.2% of their field goals allowed were classified as layups. Only the Hawks and Kings have allowed a higher percentage, and they were the two worst regular-season defenses to make the playoffs.
The Suns’ defensive efforts against the Clippers were not reassuring. Their penchant for fouling looks here to stay, and a vulnerability on the offensive glass may be there as well. They look unlikely to be elite at limiting opponent shot quality or making, and their turnover rate was just average. And that’s with the benefit of facing Russell Westbrook, the patron saint of inexplicable turnovers.
The Suns’ Offensive Metrics, Concerns, and Optimism
The Suns’ defense isn’t likely to be powering them to the Finals, but their offense just might. In very reductive terms, any offense with Devin Booker, Kevin Durant, and Chris Paul is going to be a problem, and against the Clippers, they were a Chornobyl-level problem. An offensive rating of 123.6, even over five games, is simply bonkers. They did it by excelling at pretty much everything, ranking at least fourth in each of the offensive four factors (eFG%, TOV%, ORB%, FT/FGA).
The only concern the Suns’ offense has is they really love to take the least efficient shots. They were last in shots zero to three feet from the rim (12.9%) and took by far the fewest 3-pointers (27.3%). Instead of hunting the most analytically friendly shots, they took 36% of their shots in the mid-range (10 feet to the 3-point line), more than double the playoff average of 17.8%. For just about any other team, the Suns’ shot diet would be a death sentence, but stacking three of the league’s best mid-range jump shooters into a lineup has a way of breaking the math.
While the Suns struggled to get to the rim, they did take 23.8% of their shots in the short-mid-range (3 to 10 feet from the rim) and converted them at a playoff-best 59.2%. The Suns are going to live and die by the mid-range jumper, and against the Clippers, they were absolutely thriving to the tune of a 57% eFG%.
The Suns leading the playoffs in FT/FGA rate is confounding on many levels. First, the Suns were bottom five in the metric in the regular season, and Kevin Durant, while above average at generating free throws, isn’t good enough on his own to make them elite. Second, the Suns don’t shoot near the basket, which is where free throw generation is highest. The Suns getting to the line more in the playoffs than they did in the regular season I can believe, but I’m skeptical that they suddenly became the best in the league.
The Suns were sneakily a very good offensive rebounding team during the regular season, and they carried that into the playoffs. Deandre Ayton, Bismack Biyombo, and Josh Okogie led the charge on the offensive glass, with Biyombo particularly standing out, grabbing nine offensive boards in 55 minutes. The Suns will face steeper competition in round two, but they will continue to get extra shots through the glass.
The final ingredient in the Suns’ offensive dominance was their ability to take care of the ball. Their 10.9% turnover rate is the best in the playoffs and is an improvement over their 12% mark from the regular season. The Clippers weren’t a high turnover defense, but there’s no reason to expect a Chris Paul-led offense to suddenly get careless. The Suns’ offense looks to have no real weakness, even if their free throw rate begins to normalize.
Can the Suns Continue to Burn this Bright?
The Suns aren’t going to continue to post an offensive rating of 123.6, but there is real potential for them to be as close to unstoppable as we’ve seen. My primary concern isn’t how bright the Suns' offense can burn but if it can sustain its brilliance. Devin Booker was absolutely brilliant against the Clippers, averaging 37.2 points per game on 69.7% true shooting, but he also played 43.2 minutes per game, and Durant’s 28.4 points came in 43.8 minutes per game.
The lack of depth forced Monty Williams to play Durant 219 and Booker 216 minutes out of a possible 240. That’s a dangerous game to play, but it may be necessary for them to win. At some point, they’ll run out of gas. The hope is by that point, they’re champions.
The Phoenix Suns, much like the Denver Nuggets, look like they will have to outscore their opponents to win. They have the horses to do that, but can’t survive an injury or poor performance from one of their top-four players. This might be the best team in the Western Conference, but they have a razor-thin margin for error due to their lack of depth and reliance on mid-range jump shooting to outscore opponents. They caught a massive break when Kawhi Leonard joined Paul George on the injury list. Their series against the Denver Nuggets will be this group’s first major test and should reveal much more about their strengths and weaknesses.