NBA Playoffs Small Sample Efficiency Check: New York Knicks
The Knicks were both very Knicks-like and very unKnicks-like against the Cleveland Cavaliers
Bing-Bong! The New York Knicks are back to their bludgeoning best. Their dismantling of the Cleveland Cavaliers in five games was the second biggest shock of the first round. Sure, the Knicks and Cavaliers finished next to each other in the standings, and if it weren’t for the Cavaliers’ 7-0 record in overtime, they would have been a lot closer, but the Cavaliers had the second-best net rating in the NBA at +5.5. Net rating isn’t everything, but the past three champions, the Warriors, Bucks, and Lakers, finished with net ratings of +5.7, +5.8, and +5.7 in their championship seasons. Based on the metrics, the Cavaliers were title contenders, but we all know what Tom Thibodeau thinks of numbers, and he may just be right.
The Knicks brought basketball back a few decades and reaped the rewards. Their +5.9 net rating is the fourth-best of the playoffs, and it came via the playoffs’ second-best defensive rating of 103.4. While their offensive rating of 109.3 was miles off their regular season rating, it was easily enough to push the Cavaliers aside. A 109.3 offensive rating would look a lot more at home a decade ago, but the Cavaliers did have the league’s best regular-season defense. The streets outside Madison Square Garden were popping, bing-bongs were ping-ponging through the streets, and the most hilarious fans in the NBA were dreaming again of a championship.
Not to be a party pooper, but the Knicks’ metrics are rife with anomalies. That doesn’t mean they can’t make a deep run, but it should temper expectations. They overwhelmed a young and flawed Cavaliers team, and a peek under the hood reveals some significant concerns.
The Knicks’ Defensive Metrics, Concerns, and Optimism
The Knicks’ defense showed up in a big way against the Cavaliers. If your introduction to this iteration of the Knicks came in the playoffs, please allow me to introduce you to the actual Knicks. In the regular season, the Knicks posted a defensive rating of 114.8, 19th in the league and exactly league average. Teams don’t suddenly go from a 114.8 defensive rating to 103.4 because it’s the playoffs, and their coach is Tom Thibodeau.
The Knicks saw meaningful improvements in defensive effective field goal percentage (eFG%), turnover percentage (TOV%), and free throw to field goal attempt rate (FT/FGA) compared to the regular season, with their defensive rebounding percentage (DRB%) holding steady. The only problem is most of their gains look unlikely to last.
The best predictor of defensive success is eFG%. Stopping shots from going in is the most valuable defensive trait, and the shots you allow are a considerable factor. The Knicks made some minor improvements against the Cavaliers in shot quality, but the Cavaliers hitting 32.7% of their threes did a lot of the heavy lifting.
Another warning sign for the Knicks is that they allowed the Cavaliers to generate 28.8% of their threes from the corner. The Cavaliers only hit 34.1% of their corner threes, down from 36.7% in the regular season, but a little hotter shooting or a little less luck would have seen their defensive eFG% inch toward their regular season average.
The Knicks’ significant improvement in defensive FT/FGA is also easily explainable by luck and playoff officiating. FT/FGA compares made free throws in relation to field goal attempts. If a team just starts missing free throws, you can improve your FT/FGA without actually improving. The Cavaliers saw their free throw percentage drop from 78% in the regular season to 74.2% against the Knicks in round one. That doesn’t explain everything, but playoff officiating does.
Free throw attempt rate (FTr) has decreased from .266 in the regular season to .243 in the playoffs. The Cavaliers were just below league average in the regular season at .264. If you account for the league-wide drop in the playoffs, you’d expect their FTr to clock in at .241, which is right in line with the .237 they actually produced, and if the Cavaliers drew one additional 2-point shooting foul, their FTr would jump to .243.
Where the Knicks’ defense really excelled was in their ability to force turnovers. Their 15.4% TOV% leads the playoffs by 1.6%, which is a massive margin when the difference between second and 15th is only 2.8%. The Knicks’ 11.4% TOV% ranked 25th in the regular season, and there is some compelling evidence that the Cavaliers aided in the Knicks’ first-round heist. The Cavaliers averaged 5.88 bad pass turnovers per game in the regular season but saw that figure explode to 9.2 against the Knicks. The additional 3.32 bad pass turnovers explain basically all of the Cavaliers’ +3.5 turnovers per 100 possessions from the regular season.
The Knicks do deserve credit for coaxing a pitiful performance out of the Cavaliers, but it’s hard to know exactly how much credit to give them. Their defensive shot chart did improve, but how much of that was simply game planning for a Cavaliers’ team that routinely played three non-shooters? The good news is the Knicks kicked the crap out of the Cavaliers, but the bad news is the Cavaliers also kicked the crap out of the Cavaliers. The defense isn’t this good, but it also isn’t a huge liability.
The Knicks’ Offensive Metrics, Concerns, and Optimism
The Knicks managing an offensive rating of 109.3 with an eFG% of 48% is a blast from the past. In 2004-05, the league average eFG% was 48.2%, and the league average offensive efficiency was 106.1. Fast forward nearly 20 years and a team thriving with a sub-50% eFG% was thought to be impossible. The Knicks’ secret sauce against the Cavaliers was the same as it was all season, attack the offensive glass and get to the free throw line.
To put it politely, the Knicks absolutely punked the Cavaliers on the offensive glass. Their 34.9% offensive rebounding percentage (ORB%) is a playoff best, and it’s the sixth-best mark for a playoff team since 1999-00 and the best of any team that won a series. While it’s unlikely the Knicks will continue to be around a 35% ORB%, they’re going to continue to gobble up second-chance opportunities.
As the league saw their free throw rate fall in the playoffs, the Knicks saw their rise, going from .285 to .303. The uptick came courtesy of RJ Barrett, Immanuel Quickley, and Isiah Hartenstein, as Mitchell Robinson, Julius Randle, Josh Hart, Jalen Brunson, and Obi Toppin saw their free throw rates decline. The good news is that the Knicks have plenty of progression to the mean to offset any regression, and their shot chart suggests this is no fluke. The Knicks lead the playoffs in shots zero to three feet from the rim at .294, an increase from their .266 regular-season showing.
The Knicks’ offense cratered against the Cavaliers, even with an uptick in offensive rebounding and free throw generation. Tom Thibodeau isn’t known as an offensive mastermind, but the 2022-23 Knicks’ offensive rating of 117.8 was third in the league, is the best in Knicks’ history by 6.7 points per 100 possessions, and the fourth best compared to the league average. A drop of 8.5 points in offensive efficiency is usually cause for panic, but there are a few reasons not to fret if you’re a Knicks fan.
Starting with eFG%, there’s little reason to believe that the Knicks will continue to post an eFG% of 48.2%. First, the Knicks shot 28.2% from 3-point range and 28% on corner threes. 28% was the league average 3-point shooting efficiency in 1979-80, the first year of the 3-point line in the NBA. Second, the Knicks won’t be playing the Cavaliers again. The Knicks got nearly 30% of their shots near the rim, but the Cavaliers held them to 64.2% shooting, which is no surprise because, in the regular season, they held opponents to 66% on shots zero to three feet from the rim. If it weren’t for poor 3-point shooting variance and the long arms of Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley, the Knicks would have blown the doors off the Cavaliers.
The Knicks also struggled against the Cavaliers at taking care of the ball. Their 11.4% TOV% was the fifth-best mark of any offense in the regular season, but against the Cavaliers, that rose to 13.8%, the second-worst figure behind the Cavaliers. However, that’s what the Cavaliers do. Their 14.4% defensive TOV% was fourth in the regular season. Playoff TOV% has been slightly lower than it was in the regular season, so the Knicks might have a minor playoff turnover problem, but it’s more likely that they ran into a really good defense.
If the Knicks are going to make a run to the Eastern Conference Finals, they are going to need Julius Randle to be healthy and effective. Randle is questionable for game one against the Miami Heat following a re-aggravation of an ankle injury, but that might be a good thing following his showing against the Cavaliers. In the regular season, Randle put together an All-NBA quality campaign, averaging 25.1 points and 10.0 rebounds per game. In round one, he saw his production plummet to 14.4 points and 6.4 rebounds per game, and is a continuation of his career playoff struggles. In 10 career playoff games, Randle is averaging 16.2 points and 9.0 rebounds per game on a 37.2% eFG%. The Knicks may not need Randle to be at his regular-season best, but they can’t have him at his playoff worst.
The Knicks’ performance in the first round was wild. Their defense looked amazing, but to some varying degree, it was because the Cavaliers shit the bed on offense. Their offense survived through the offensive glass and the free throw line, but they couldn’t hit a shot to save their life. It was a stereotypical Tom Thibodeau performance in the first round, but under the hood, they look a lot like the team that finished with the third-best offense and 19th-best defense. When their shooting normalizes and they face an opponent with more poise, the games should modernize at a breakneck pace.
Great analysis. Can't wait for a preview on Mia-NY.