NBA Positional Player Rankings: Small Forwards

The most definitive ranking of my opinions

Hopefully, this entry needs no introduction, but if this is your first taste of Above the Break positional player rankings, make sure to check out centers and power forwards.

The small forward position is in a weird place right now. There was a time when elite wings dominated the league, but a lost generation has led to a dearth of elite prime-aged candidates and has diluted what was once the premier position in the NBA. Some of that is due to positional classifications moving away from the traditional one through five, point guard to center height-based delineation of our forefathers. For example, Luka Doncic would have been a small forward 20 years ago, but today, he’s a point guard.

Small forwards are generally referred to as wings, and the term will be used throughout the article. Among wings, some are multi-positional defensive aces, others are floor spacers, some can do both, and a few are even their team’s on-ball initiator. What role a player occupies tells you an awful lot about their overall ability. Remember, the tiers are more important than the numerical rankings, and players are classified based upon Basketball Reference’s positional estimates.

Honorable Mentions

Khris Middleton: Washington Wizards

It wasn’t that long ago when Khris Middleton was considered one of the better small forwards in the league. From 2017-18 through 2021-22, he averaged 19.9 points, 5.7 rebounds, and 4.7 assists per game with an effective field goal percentage (eFG%) of 53.6%, while playing solid defense on the wing. Considering his reputation, those figures feel a bit light, but the Bucks won a ton of games, including a championship in 2020-21, which always has a way of bolstering a player’s reputation. Regardless, in the years since, Middleton’s body has disintegrated faster than a Nazi drinking from not the Holy Grail. He has played a total of 125 games across three seasons, averaging 25 minutes, 14.1 points, 4.3 rebounds, and 4.8 assists per game on an eFG% of 54.1% and seen his defense descend squarely into the negative. The truth is, Middleton can still be an effective offensive player when on the court, but I think his body has officially entered the phase of his career where 20 solid minutes a night should be the expectation. In the final year of his deal, there’s a chance the Wizards buy out a portion of his $33.3 million salary so he can latch on with a contender because he can still help a high-level team.

Kelly Oubre: Philadelphia 76ers

The small forward position has a ton of the “eye-test don’t match the analytics” type of players, and Kelly Oubre is our first entry into the group. Simply put, Oubre looks the part, he moves the part, he has the moments that make you believe, and he has the points per game to match. Over the past four seasons, Oubre has averaged 16.1 points, 5.0 rebounds, 1.4 assists, and 1.2 steals per game. The problem is he has an eFG% over that span of 51.4% and shot 32.3% from three, and over the past three seasons, his 3-point efficiency has dropped to 30.9%. When you factor in that he provides zero playmaking, it’s no surprise he has a -0.9 OBPM in that span, even though that includes a career year of 0.2, and his on-court and on/off net ratings have consistently been negative. If Oubre were an elite defender, it’d be a different story, but he’s at best average. The best way to describe Oubre is a wing-innings eater. That has value, but there’s a reason he has bounced around the league.

Jaime Jaquez Jr: Miami Heat

After the season triple-J, but with a Spanish pronunciation, so it’s like “triple-hey,” just had, placing him in the honorable mentions seems absurd. And perhaps “soy tonto,” but it’d be just as absurd to write him off after a relatively positive rookie season that’s hardly in the rearview. Even though Jaquez’s efficiency fell from an eFG% of 53.6% to 50.1%, some encouraging things happened under the hood. His passing ticked up from an assist percentage of 13.9% to 17.9%, and his free throw attempt rate went from .251 to .307. I’m a sucker for players who can pass, not just because it’s aesthetically pleasing, but because passing is actually super valuable. Also, free throw generation is the best medicine for inefficiency from the field. In fact, if you squint like you’re staring straight into the South Beach sun, Jaquez kind of started to morph into a poor man’s Jimmy Butler. That doesn’t mean he’ll suddenly be a star, but I think in year three, he’ll put it all together and produce like a low-tier starter or high-end bench wing.

Taurean Prince: Milwaukee Bucks

If you’re relying on Taurean Prince in the playoffs, you’re probably in a world of trouble, but as far as getting through a regular season is concerned, he’s a more than adequate option. Prince is a career 38.4% 3-point shooter. He has shot 40.2% from three over the past five seasons. He can space the floor. Can he defend? Well, he’ll try, and probably not do such a great job. Prince is a useful player to have because you can never have too much shooting, but you’re better off having a better option.

Zaccharie Risacher: Atlanta Hawks

There’s a high likelihood that Risacher will be the most disappointing first overall pick to live up to expectations. That’s not a knock on him, just a testament to the underwhelming nature of the 2024 NBA draft. While I don’t see stardom in his future, Risacher’s rookie season was actually pretty promising. He posted almost league-average efficiency on twos (54%) and threes (35.5%), averaged 12.6 points and 3.6 rebounds per game, and was solid enough on defense that you can still project him to be an asset on that end at maturity. Honestly, the biggest concern is that he had an equal number of assists and turnovers (92), but I don’t see that as a long-term issue. Risacher looks like he’ll grow into a solid 3-and-D wing with few, if any, true holes or overwhelming strengths. As for his second season, I think he’ll continue to make marginal gains and approach the high threshold of league-average wing.

Bilal Coulibaly: Washington Wizards

When the Wizards selected Coulibaly with the seventh pick in the 2023 NBA draft, everyone knew he was going to be a slow burn. He was incredibly young and had burst onto the scene with a strong second-half in the French league. He was the classic “two-years away from being two-years away” prospect, and then he shot 42.7% on threes in his first 24 games, and people thought they may need to reevaluate that projection. As the great Lee Corso would say, “Not so fast.” Coulibaly shot 29.3% from three over the final 40 games of his rookie season and then 28.1% over 59 games in his second. We’re basically at 100 consecutive games of sub-30% 3-point shooting, but I still believe. Coulibaly has shown tremendous flashes on defense, and if the Wizards weren’t a dumpster fire, he’d probably have much better metrics on that end. He also managed to increase his usage as a scorer and passer without a massive corresponding drop in 2-point efficiency and was able to keep his turnovers in check. I’m not banking on a sudden proficiency from beyond the arc, but I think Coulibaly should have his first season where he looks like a real NBA wing. Development is rarely linear, and I think this is the year he makes a leap.

Ryan Dunn: Phoenix Suns

Remember when Ryan Dunn shot 44% from three and everyone hailed the Suns as geniuses for snagging a defensive ace and lethal 3-point shooter with the 28th pick? Well, if you’ve forgotten about the first five games of the 2024-25 Suns, you’re not alone. After that promising start, Dunn shot 29.7% from three and looked like the player his prospect pedigree suggested. Dunn can really defend, and he’ll have a long career as a defensive specialist because of it. However, the shooting is a real concern. He shot 23.5% from three and 52.5% from the line in college, and then 31.1% from three and 48.7% on free throws as a rookie. The long-term outlook for Dunn as a shooter is incredibly dire, but with his defensive chops, he doesn’t need to be anything special as a shooter to be a very valuable player. I prefer players who are great at something with a serious flaw over players who just have no catastrophic characteristics. Dunn has a real carrying trait, and that’s far more valuable than the generic wing filler you find rounding out NBA rosters.

Hypothetical 3&D

If you’ve ever watched an NBA broadcast, you’ve undoubtedly heard an announcer call a player a “3-and-D” wing. With how frivolously the term is thrown about, you’d think every roster was stocked with players who are good shooters and lockdown defenders. You’d be wrong. The number of players who are labeled 3-and-D wings far outstrips the number of players who can actually defend and shoot threes. Most are solid at one, but below average at the other, or elite on one end, and abysmal on the other. They’re two-way players in the sense that every player has to play both ends of the court. It’s not that they are bad players, but calling them a 3-and-D wing is like calling your Sixth Man a shot creator. Yes, they do the thing, but they don’t do it particularly well.

30. Royce O’Neal: Phoenix Suns

There was a time when Royce O’Neal was probably a true 3-and-D wing. I only say probably because his defensive peak was spent alongside prime-Rudy Gobert, and I’d have to imagine having a Brinks security blanket made the job a whole lot easier. Despite the inevitable defensive slippage brought upon by age, O’Neal has remained a solid 3-point shooter. Over the past four seasons, he has shot 38.9% from three and is at 38.5% for his career. While those are hardy percentages, as an open catch-and-shoot specialist, his efficiency isn’t quite as productive as it looks. My main worry with O’Neal as he enters his 30s is his size. Listed at 6’4, his ability to defend the perimeter and wings in particular is much more reliant on athleticism. Throw in the fact that he has only started 36 out of 154 games the past two seasons, and it’s clear his standing as a true starting-caliber small forward is in question. O’Neal is still a player you’d love to have, but as a great reserve, not a set-it-and-forget-it starter.

29. Naji Marshall: Dallas Mavericks

I find a lot of NBA reporting to be unimaginative slop, but every so often, something great is uncovered. During his four-season spell with the New Orleans Pelicans, Zion Williamson referred to Naji Marshall as their “Swiss Army Knife.” Upon hearing this oft-used comparison, Pelicans head coach Willie Green humorously mused it might just be better to refer to him as “the Knife,” and thus, one of the great NBA nicknames was born. Marshall is a player who is easy to root for. He plays hard, defends well, and can handle the ball better than your stock footage forward. He’s a fun player, just like a knife is fun to twirl around, and he’ll slash and dash his way through the court. Unfortunately, he is a hypothetical 3-and-D wing because he’s a career 30.2% 3-point shooter. So, I guess “the Knife” really is an apt nickname because knives can’t shoot.

28. Duncan Robinson: Detroit Pistons

If Naji Marshall is a knife, then Duncan Robinson is a B-52. The newest Piston is the NBA career leader in 3-point attempts per 100 possessions at 13.6, and pairs that with a career 39.7% 3-point shooting. Robinson is a certified bomber-boy that teams have to respect. He’s lethal on catch-and-shoot opportunities but also kills teams off screens. There’s a real difference between what stationary and movement shooters can do to a defense, and Robinson is excellent at both. So, why isn’t he higher? Well, for as great a shooter as Robinson is, he might be an equally bad defender. The incredible extremes at which Robinson resides are what functionally make him a low-level starter. It’s great when his shooting is bending a defense, but it’s agonizing to watch him get exploited on defense. In the regular season, it’s much easier to navigate those extremes, but come the playoffs, you’re risking an awful lot playing him heavy minutes.

27. Julian Champagnie: San Antonio Spurs

There’s a real chance that Champagnie ends the season as the Spurs’ starting small forward. That’s partially because he’s a good player, but it’s also because the Spurs have a dearth of 3-point shooting, which happens to be his specialty. Over the past two seasons, Champagnie has shot 36.9% on 8.0 attempts per 36 minutes. He’s not an elite floor-spacer, but he’s comfortably plus and at least not a complete liability on defense. The appeal here is clear: Champagnie is playable on both ends of the court. That might not be exciting, but it’s better than the alternative.

26. Klay Thompson: Dallas Mavericks

There was a time when the now estranged Splash Brother would be near the top of this list, or a list, since he was classified as a shooting guard. However, consecutive lost seasons, first due to an ACL tear and then an Achilles, and the horrifying ravages of being in your 30s have taken their toll on Klay Thompson. Despite his decline in shot creation and on defense, he is still one of the most dangerous shooters in the world. Since 2021-22, his first season post-injury, Thompson has averaged 9.1 3-point attempts per game on 39.6% shooting. That level of volume and efficiency is frankly obnoxious, and with his reputation, you know defenses are always making sure he’s covered. Unfortunately, the small forward position is not a 3-point competition, and the defensive decline is very real. At this stage of his career, Thompson can only credibly guard power forwards, and at 6’5, even that’s a bit dicey. At the end of the day, this is a special shooting specialist, who probably isn’t targeted quite as much as he should be due to a defensive reputation from a decade ago.

25. Keldon Johnson: San Antonio Spurs

If I had to guess, Keldon Johnson’s distinction as a small forward has more to do with the state of the Spurs roster over the past six seasons, and less to do with what he brings to the table. First, he’s only 6’5, which is decidedly on the smaller side for the position. Second, he isn’t a great defender. And third, he’s not a particularly dangerous 3-point shooter. So, how the hell is he the 25th best small forward? Well, Johnson can put the ball on the deck a bit, hit contested shots, shoulder heavy usage, and still net an about league-average efficiency. That’s not easy, and when so many small forwards are basically supply dependent, having one who can make lemon water out of lemons is a nice reprieve, although lemonade would be preferable. I’ll admit, there’s a good chance this ranking ends up being too high. The Spurs seem likely to continue using him off the bench, and he’s a career 35.2% 3-point shooter, but he’ll also finally have a full season on a team with real NBA talent. I’m banking on this being his most efficient season to date, and playing with Victor Wembanyama and Luke Kornet should help him out defensively.

24. Derrick Jones Jr: Los Angeles Clippers

It’s nice when a player knows what their strengths are and plays to them accordingly. Jones Jr. is a tremendous athlete, and as such, he defends his ass off, runs the floor, dunks the ball, and hits just enough wide-open threes that negligent defense is punished. Strong defense, layups, dunks, and threes are usually enough to be a productive wing, and Jones checks three of those four boxes. The biggest concern with Jones is his 3-point shot. Even though he has seen steady improvement as a 3-point shooter, his career best figure was last season’s 35.6%. I don’t expect a continuation of his improved shooting, but if he can reside around 35%, he’ll continue to be a very valuable regular-season contributor. In the playoffs, teams will ignore him, and he’ll have to punish them to stay on the court. That happened during the Mavericks’ run to the finals in 2024, but didn’t happen with the Clippers’ first-round elimination in 2025.

23. De’Andre Hunter: Cleveland Cavaliers

It took some time, but I think De’Andre Hunter finally found his perfect NBA role as a third forward who comes off the bench and puts up numbers that make it insane he doesn’t start. Simply listing off his traits makes it unconscionable that he isn’t one of the better wings in the league. Hunter is 6’8, can guard threes and fours, is a career 37.3% 3-point shooter, has averaged 16 points per game over the past three seasons, and has converted 39.6% of his triples over the past two. That’s not a star, but it sounds like a player that nearly every team would be dying to start. Unfortunately, for all of Hunter’s physical gifts, his defensive impact has never measured up to his measurables. He can get lost off the ball and is a poor defensive rebounder. Rebounding is often overlooked, but elite rebounding wings are essential for elite team rebounding. Fortunately, on offense, Hunter has started to figure it out. Early in his career, he took far too few threes and far too many mid-range jumpers, but last season, he trimmed the fat from his shot diet, and it spurred him to career highs in points per game (17.0) and eFG% (59.6%). With Max Strus out to start the season, Hunter is probably going to get a chance to start, and he could very well earn his spot. However, I don’t think defensive lapses are something that can be coached out of veterans. Either way, Hunter is going to be a crucial cog in the Cavaliers’ offensive machine.

22. Herb Jones: New Orleans Pelicans

Stop me if you’ve heard this before, but a Pelican is coming off an injury-wrecked season. Upon entering the NBA, Jones quickly established himself as one of the premier defensive players in the sport. His combination of length, mobility, and tenaciousness made him an elite on-ball defender, but also an off-ball wrecker. His ability to erase offense led to a First Team All-Defense selection and a fifth-place finish for Defensive Player of the Year in 2023-24. Unfortunately, his follow-up campaign was thwarted by a torn rotator cuff, which limited him to 20 games. Jones’ defensive excellence is well established, and I have no concern about him on that end going forward. However, his offense is another matter. In three out of four seasons, Jones has been a well below-average 3-point shooter, shooting a combined 33.1%. Then there is the 2023-24 season, when he shot 41.8%, the 16th-best mark in the league. Regardless of the efficiency, Jones has only shot at a limited volume, so he’ll never really be a floor spacer. The question is, what will he shoot from three? My answer is around 33%. That’s why he’s 22nd and not far higher because the defense is spectacular.

Starter for Most

21. Aaron Nesmith: Indiana Pacers

We’re finally starting to venture into real 3-and-D territory. Drafted by the Celtics, Aaron Nesmith had a rocky start to his NBA career. He was drafted by a contender who had two All-Stars blocking his path to playing time. Opportunities and success were hard to come by, and it looked like he might find himself stuck in the revolving door between the G-League and NBA. Fortunately, Nesmith was flipped to the Pacers, given room to breathe, and broke out in a big way. Since moving to Indiana, he has steadily improved, becoming a strong defender and a comfortably plus 3-point shooter. His Pacer averages of 11.3 points, 3.8 rebounds, and 1.4 assists on a 57.9% eFG% and 40.2% 3-point shooting show just how far he has come. The demerits on Nesmith’s report card are his lack of size, he’s listed at 6’5, limiting his effectiveness in certain matchups, and the fact that 40% of his threes come from the corners. Based on the surface-level production, Nesmith probably deserves to be higher, but I’m expecting a significant efficiency decline in light of Tyrese Haliburton’s injury. Even with a step back, he is still a really solid player, but I think this season we’ll learn a lot more about his standing in the league.

20. RJ Barrett: Toronto Raptors

Quietly, RJ Barrett is coming off the best season of his career. In 58 games, he set career bests in points (21.1), assists (5.4), and rebounds (6.3) per game. In fact, since arriving in Toronto from New York, Barrett has basically been better at everything. Now, that’s not actually saying all that much. Barrett was a highly ineffective usage sponge in New York, which led to points per game at the expense of anything productive occurring on the court. The secret to his success in Toronto has been simple: he’s just better at basketball. Even though Barrett is still inefficient relative to the league average, he’s far closer to acceptable, and his playmaking explosion last season was incredibly impressive. His 27.3% assist percentage last season was more than 10% better than his previous career high. The total offensive package is now positive, and Barrett, while not a good defender, is also not someone you can target. Heading into year seven, Barrett is only 25, and he looks to have solidified himself as a solid starting wing who makes up for his slight lack of defense and floor spacing with real creation.

19. Ausar Thompson: Detroit Pistons

Ausar Thompson might be the Devito of the Thompson twins, but let’s not forget that Danny Devito is the fucking man. Thompson is an elite on-ball defender capable of defending the best on-ball guards in the league. Having the option to get elite perimeter defense from the small forward position is a lineup game-changer. It allows you to build massive lineups if needed, or pack your backcourt with offense-only contributors. The selling point here is defense, but despite a non-existent 3-point shot (career: 19.8%), Thompson has figured out a way to not be a total zero on offense through transition, cutting, and offensive rebounding. If he had played enough minutes to qualify, his offensive rebound percentage of 9.3% would have ranked 15th in the league, just ahead of his brother, and tops among small forwards. Shooting is a crucial skill in the modern game, but a lack of it can be overcome. However, you need to be elite in other areas of the game, and Thompson is. In his young career, the Pistons have been 4.6 points per 100 possessions better with him on the court. When pundits talk about winning players, they’re talking about guys like Thompson.

18. Brandon Miller: Charlotte Hornets

Even though Miller only played 27 relatively ineffective games last season, there were a few positives that make me bullish for his third season. Miller shouldered a 27.7% usage in his second season and only saw his eFG% drop from 52.4% to 50.9%. Make no mistake, that’s bad, and for a low free throw player, it’s deadly, but Miller was also a 22-year-old on a dysfunctional team. Remember, if you want efficient scoring, don’t thrust young players into high-usage roles. Another promising development was that he cranked up his 3-point volume to 10.9 attempts per game and maintained solid efficiency (35.5%). I’m not sure Miller will ever be a good defender, but he should presumably get better as he gets stronger, and he made strides as a wing initiator. With better health and supporting talent in Charlotte, I think Miller will average over 20 points per game on league average efficiency while continuing to grow as a playmaker.

17. Max Strus: Cleveland Cavaliers

When I initially made these rankings, Max Strus had a functional foot. Unfortunately, a (Mr.) Jones fracture will sideline him to begin the season. Despite that, I still think Strus is one of the more underrated players in the league. He’s a true high-volume 3-point shooter, averaging 8.8 3-point attempts per 36 minutes on 36.8% shooting, is an underrated defender, and you know exactly what you’re going to get. Every contender could seemingly use another plug-and-play 3-and-D wing, and that’s exactly what Strus brings. At the end of the season, a few players behind Strus will probably have leapfrogged him, but I’d be willing to bet a few guys ahead of him will have fallen. Upside is great, but I’ll take consistent defense and floor spacing any day of the week.

16. Dillon Brooks: Phoenix Suns

Stats be damned, Dillon Brooks is a frustrating role player every single team would love to have. His defense rarely grades out as elite, and he only has one second-team All-Defense to his name, but Brooks is the rare wing that you want to guard the opposition’s best perimeter player. As much as defense is about getting stops, it’s also a war of attrition, and Brooks makes elite offensive initiators work for every inch of flooring. I’m not a huge vibes guy, but Brooks, for better or worse, gives his defense a certain in-your-face attitude that galvanizes every game. Prior to joining the Houston Rockets, Brooks’ biggest problem on offense was his shot selection. He was a 3-and-D wing who, all too often, decided he was a mid-range assassin. Fortunately, over the past two seasons, he ramped up his 3-point attempt rate, eliminating some of his more perplexing shot decisions, and has seen his efficiency improve dramatically. As long as he continues to be a menace on defense and trade heroball mid-rangers for threes, he’ll remain one of the better 3-and-D wings in the league.

Elite Role Player

15. Lu Dort: Oklahoma City Thunder

There’s a very strong case that Lu Dort is the best perimeter defender in the league. He takes on the most difficult defensive assignment each night, and his two nicknames, per Basketball Reference, are “LuDortress” and the “Dorture Chamber.” Is that real analysis? Probably not, but sometimes keeping it simple, stupid, is the way to go. The Oklahoma City Thunder have had a top-five defense the past two seasons, and it’s in no small part thanks to Dort’s incredible ability to guard. The only areas where Dort isn’t elite on defense are in the event creation categories of steals and blocks, and even that is not exactly true. As the NBA’s foremost flopper, Dort racks up turnovers that don’t show up in the box score. His 134 steals + offensive fouls drawn were 8th in the league, even though his 79 steals were only 49th. What holds Dort back is his offense. I’ve been waiting for his 3-point shooting to come back to Earth, but like his moonball shot, it just hangs up there forever. I think it’s safe to say that he has simply become a good open catch-and-shoot 3-point threat. Over his first four seasons, he shot 33.2% from three, but over the past two, he has shot 40.3%. While I don’t think he’s a true-40% 3-point shooter, we’re now at over 800 attempts of elite efficiency. Unfortunately, the rest of Dort’s offensive game is abysmal. He’s not much of a passer and is one of the worst scorers within the arc. For his career, he has shot 46.6% on twos and is coming off a season where he shot 58.9% on shots 0-3 feet from the basket; the league averages were 54.5% (2P%) and 69.6% (0-3). Dort is maybe the purest 3-and-D player in the league. He has become legitimately great at those two things, but the rest of his game leaves everything to be desired.

14. Andrew Wiggins: Miami Heat

After 11 NBA seasons, Andrew Wiggins has settled in as an above-average starting small forward. While his prospect pedigree suggested he’d be a star, having a long career as a valuable contributor is a fine fallback. Wiggins isn’t particularly elite at the whole 3-and-D thing, but he also isn’t all that bad. His defense comes and goes, but his combination of size (6’7) and athleticism allows him to hold his own in difficult matchups. As a shooter, Wiggins has developed into a solidly above-average 3-point shooter over the past five seasons (38.1%), who you have to guard on the perimeter. What separates Wiggins from the likes of the Lu Dorts of the world is his ability to create moderately efficient offense. You don’t want to run your offense through Wiggins, but he is capable of bailing out a possession by taking matters into his own hands. With how optimized shot charts have become, a big separator on offense is what you can do when things break down, and Wiggins adds another club to your bag. I think the Heat are going to surprise people this season, and a big reason for that is their wing rotation is actually going to be quite good, and it starts with Andrew Wiggins.

13. Michael Porter Jr: Brooklyn Nets

Of all the players in the small forward rankings, Porter is the player I’m most confident won’t be labeled a small forward next season. The only reason he’s considered a small forward is because Aaron Gordon is a power forward, and I guess it’s illegal to play two power forwards together, just like I guess it’s illegal for Michael Porter Jr. to not say the dumbest fucking thing possible. With all that out of the way, Porter is actually quite good at basketball. Over the past three seasons, he has averaged 17.4 points and 6.6 rebounds per game on an eFG% of 59.4%. He is an elite 3-point shooter and highly efficient in the mid-range. Defensively, Porter is by no means a stopper, but he’s 6’10 and has been playing out of position for most of his career. It wouldn’t surprise me if he were an adequate defender at power forward. The biggest gripe about Porter has been his contract, which I always find to be annoying. Just because a player is on a negative value contract doesn’t mean they’re a negative value player. Porter is massive and an elite shooter. The Nets are probably going to give him a ton of shots, and he’ll probably hit a bunch of them. It wouldn’t surprise me if he averaged 25 points per game on about league average efficiency, which, by extension, makes him a really good player.

12. Mikal Bridges: New York Knicks

If you ask me, Knicks fans and the New York media owe Mikal Bridges an apology. For the entire season, they complained about how many picks it took to trade for him (not his fault), his defensive shortcomings (we’ll get to that), and his poor 3-point shooting (35.4%). Was it a perfect season? Far from it, but he became the fall guy for all the supposed problems on a team that won 51 games and made the Eastern Conference Finals. To quickly relitigate the trade, a significant part of Bridges’ trade value was tied to the fact that he had two years and $48.2 million left on his deal. He was never a five first-round pick talent, but on that contract, it’s not the overpay many have made it out to be. Defensively, Bridges did not regain the form that saw him finish second in Defensive Player of the Year voting and make the First Team All-Defense in 2021-22. However, his defense was not the unmitigated mess some have made it out to be. He was forced into being the Knicks’ primary on-ball stopper because Jalen Brunson and Josh Hart were incapable, had Karl-Anthony Towns as his backline, played the most minutes in the league by over 200 minutes, and defended the most ball screens in the entire league. Volume is where efficiency goes to die, and the defensive volume thrust onto Bridges was an obvious engineering disaster. His 3-point shooting is a concern, but he remained incredibly efficient from the corner (42.3%), and he has never been that good of an above-the-break 3-point shooter. For his career, he has shot 33.8% on above-the-break threes, and while the 29.8% he shot last season represents a troubling step back, it’s not all that out of line with the player that he has always been. For all intents and purposes, Bridges had a very good season, like he always does, for a very good team. The problem is that the fans and a large portion of the media thought Bridges was a great player and that the Knicks should be a great team. I expect Bridges to have a more manageable defensive load this season, a more favorable offensive role, and to be the same player as always. The result will be a better season and a bunch of articles about a Bridges bounce-back.

Third Star Type

11. DeMar DeRozan: Sacramento Kings

Perhaps no player in NBA history has a bigger disconnect between their counting stats and team impact than DeMar DeRozan. Over 16 seasons, he has averaged 21.3 points per game on a league-average true shooting, yet his teams have been -1.5 points per 100 possessions worse with him on the court. However, over the past four seasons, DeRozan’s teams have actually been better with him on the court (+1.9), but it doesn’t change the fact that his particular brand of basketball has some real limitations. In fact, I almost had DeRozan in the tier below, but calling him a high-level role player seemed even more ridiculous than a third star. At this point, you know what you’re going to get. There will be points, done at average efficiency thanks to a ton of free throws, some assists, virtually no turnovers, a billion mid-range jumpers, and he will be on the court during defense. I’m willing to concede that this could be the season he falls off, but with the Kings’ point guard situation somewhat unsettled, I think we’ll see a bunch of point-DeRozan and it’ll be pretty efficient offense. The less we talk about defense, the better.

10. Brandon Ingram: Toronto Raptors

Brandon Ingram is another player where the eye test and analytics do not align. If you watch him, and just him, you’d become convinced he’s one of the best players in the league. He stands 6’8, glides around the court, can create his own shot, is a dangerous shooter, and has quietly developed into a good playmaker. In fact, the statistics support all these claims. Just look at him compared to Jayson Tatum.

Seriously, solely based on these figures, who would you say is the better player? And this is why Ingram, to this day, has a relatively large stable of supporters. Unfortunately, basketball isn’t a skills challenge, and how you use your talents matters tremendously. Once again, let’s compare him to Jayson Tatum, but this time, we’ll see where they take their shots, along with assisted 3-point attempts and turnovers per 100 possessions.

Obviously, where a player shoots from is a product of their ability, and not solely a choice. However, you can see quite clearly how Ingram punches below his incredible shotmaking talent with a maddeningly inefficient shot chart. It has been long enough that I doubt Ingram will suddenly decide to augment his game for the better, but if he does, he would move up a whole tier. Fundamentally, the only thing really stopping him from scoring more and more efficiently are the decisions he makes. Even with less than ideal offensive utilization, Ingram is still a real force. Since 2019-20, he has averaged 23 points, 5.5 rebounds, and 5.2 assists per game on a TS% just above the league average. If he were a better defender, his less-than-optimized offensive game plan would be a slight annoyance, rather than a significant flaw. Still, despite all the frustration, he’s one of the better small forwards when healthy, which is slowly becoming his biggest concern.

9. Jaylen Brown: Boston Celtics

Two years ago, I explored why the advanced metrics portray Brown far less favorably than the general public. Then this past season, I wrote about a cohort of former All-Stars, which included Brown, who were experiencing a slippage in play. Then I saw an image from the TD Garden jumbotron where Brown said he was the team expert on “warrior mentality,” and I decided to devote my life to evil. Like, seriously, “warrior mentality?” That’s cringey high school football captain speak that everyone at the pep rally rolls their eyes at.

So, yeah, I’m not a particularly big fan of Brown’s. He can score points, he’ll do it at a league-average efficiency, and his playmaking has gone from awful to fine enough. I’m not saying the 23.5 points per game he has averaged over the past six seasons are worthless. I’m just saying it’s not nearly enough to make him a top 15 player. To be fair, Brown is a real two-way player, and his versatility as an on-ball defender who can guard one through four provides tremendous value. Unfortunately, he is an inattentive off-ball defender, which prevents him from being a truly plus defender. Even though the Celtics have been incredibly successful with Brown, he has a negative (-0.9) on-off net rating for his career, and it has been even worse (-4.1) the past three seasons. The Celtics are a winning organization, but it’s hard to say Brown is a winning player. At least for me, 2025-26 is a make-or-break season for Brown as a real top-30 player. He’ll presumably be the Celtics’ primary scoring option, and this will be the least talented supporting cast of his career. If he rises to the occasion, I’ll admit I was wrong, but if he averages the least efficient 27 points since Bernard King donned a Bullets jersey and the Celtics finish below .500, I’ll take a victory lap.

8. Deni Avdija: Portland Trail Blazers

All the optimism surrounding the Portland Trail Blazers needs to start with Deni Avdija. He was by far their best player last season and has blossomed into one of the league’s better two-way wings. Over the past two seasons, split between Washington and Portland, Avdija has averaged 15.8 points, 7.2 rebounds, and 3.9 assists per game on a 60.1% TS%. However, that doesn’t fully capture the leap he made last season. After largely coming off the bench to start the season, Avdija was made a full-time starter on December 28th and went on a tear. He averaged 19.7 points, 8.3 rebounds, 4.4 assists, and 6.1 free throw attempts per game on a TS% of 61.9%, leading the Trail Blazers to a 23-19 record in the 42 games he played. Usually, when a player “breaks out,” there’s a neon red sign reading “shooting regression,” but this breakout looks sustainable. His 3-point shooting has been over 36% the past two seasons, and during his star turn in the second half, he only shot 36.7% from three. What fueled Avdija was his development into one of the best free throw generators in the league. Last season, his free throw attempt rate (FTAr) of 0.441 was the eighth-highest figure in the league, but even that undersells it. FTAr and 3-point attempt rate (3PAr), league-wide, have an inverse correlation. This is unsurprising because most shooting fouls occur near the basket, and 3-pointers are not near the basket. Avdija was one of three players to sport both a FTAr and a 3PAr greater than 0.400. The other two were James Harden and Trae Young. His offensive breakout looks very real, and I haven’t even mentioned that Avdija is a great defender. So, yeah, the Trail Blazers have a serious two-way wing who can create efficient offense, and he won’t turn 25 until January.

7. Amen Thompson: Houston Rockets

My favorite position designation is when a player is labeled a small forward because they play all over the place and have such a varied role that no single position really captures what they do, and we just call them a small forward because it’s the position in the middle. I have no idea what position Amen Thompson really plays, but I don’t care because I do know that he’s really freaking good at what he does. First and foremost, Thompson is an elite defender. He can erase players on the perimeter, provide weakside rim protection, and basically put out any fire anywhere, and possibly all at once. There’s a reason he was one of four players to have a block percentage greater than 3% and a steal percentage greater than 2%. After Victor Wembanyama, Thompson is the next most talented defender in the league, and I expect him to be an All-Defensive team mainstay for years to come. His offensive game, while rudimentary, is highly effective. The 3-point shot is currently non-existent, but that’s fine. He’s an elite offensive rebounder, a blur in transition, cuts through defenses like a Rocket-knife, and can create downhill action off the dribble. As a jump shooter, Thompson has a clunky short-mid-range jumper that is surprisingly effective, and he made significant strides as a corner 3-point shooter this past season. However, with the loss of Fred VanVleet, Thompson’s most exciting skill as a prospect, his passing, should finally get the chance to shine. I’m not sure if he’ll ever have the jumper to be a ten assist per game lead ballhandler, but he certainly has the vision and burst to average seven or eight. The Rockets need Thompson to be excellent this season, and I think he will more than rise to the challenge.

Second Star Type

6. Jalen Johnson: Atlanta Hawks

I might be too bullish on Jalen Johnson. I might not be bullish enough. All I know is the dude just keeps getting better and better. Every season, Johnson has improved his points, rebounds, assists, steals, and blocks per game. Part of that is due to an ever-increasing minutes load, but the main reason is the talent. Johnson doesn’t have the vertical pop of a young Blake Griffin, but he reminds me of him in a few ways. He is an incredible athlete whose natural feel for the game takes him to another level. Over the past two seasons, he has averaged 17.1 points, 9.2 rebounds, and 4.2 assists with an eFG% of 55.3%. The jumper is still a work in progress, but Johnson’s ability to get to the rim and finish is elite. Heading into year five, Johnson will have the best supporting cast of his career, and I’m expecting a huge offensive season from him. His defensive playmaking figures are strong, but he still has work to do as an on-ball and team defender before I’d call him a plus. As a side note, for some reason, Basketball Reference has classified him as a small forward every season, despite 94% of his career minutes coming at power forward. Regardless, the Hawks are set up to be an exciting and, potentially, elite team, and Jalen Johnson will be front and center.

5. Trey Murphy III: New Orleans Pelicans

If there were a way to buy and sell NBA player stock, I’d build an aggressive amount of my portfolio around Trey Murphy III. If it weren’t for the fact that he plays in New Orleans, Murphy would be a household name, and if he played in a city like Los Angeles, he’d be viewed as a future star. The carrying traits for Murphy are size and shooting. He’s 6’8 and a career 38.3% 3-point shooter on 8.2 attempts per 36 minutes. He’s lethal on the catch-and-shoot and has been able to shoulder ever-increasing offensive responsibilities. Over the past three seasons, he has averaged 16.5 points per game on a TS% of 62%, and last season, he averaged 21.2 points per game on a 59.8% TS%. Defensively, Murphy leverages his size and mobility to get relatively average results. He’s not a stopper, but if he gets switched onto an elite perimeter scorer, it’s not going to be a disaster. The biggest concern for Murphy going forward is health. He has played a total of 110 games over the past two seasons due to knee and shoulder surgeries. However, at 25, there’s no reason to believe he’ll fall off physically anytime soon, and as a late bloomer, he should continue to improve into his late 20s. If the Pelicans are going to be a playoff team, they’ll need Murphy to be one of the best small forwards in the league, which I’m far more confident in than Zion staying healthy.

4. Franz Wagner: Orlando Magic

There’s a hipster case that Franz Wagner is the Magic’s best player. Would I make it? Honestly, I’d argue that the Magic have no clear best player, which is probably still a hipster take. So why do I think Wagner is the best young small forward in the league? Well, because he’s really good at basketball. Despite the first real injury interruption of his career last season, Wagner set career highs in points (24.2), rebounds (5.7), assists (4.7), and steals (1.3) per game. Among qualified players, he and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander were the only players in the league to average over 24 points, 4.5 assists, 5.0 rebounds, and under 2.5 turnovers per game. That doesn’t mean he’s anywhere near as good as SGA, but it does show just how rare his combination of scoring, rebounding, and playmaking is. If you had any questions about Wagner’s All-Star upside, he squashed them last season. This is a 6’10 small forward who can handle the ball, defend multiple positions, and, due to the absence of Paolo Banchero, proved that he can be a team’s go-to option. He’s the Jayson “sourdough” Tatum starter, and the only thing preventing Wagner from ranking third, and possibly jumping into the next tier, is the complete and utter disintegration of his 3-point shot. Over Wagner’s first two seasons, he shot 35.8% from three on 4.0 attempts per game. That won’t get you confused with Klay Thompson, but it’s enough to get you guarded, and when combined with his 85% free throw shooting, it was easy to dream of him developing into a plus 3-point shooter. Then the past two seasons happened, when Wagner shot 28.9% from three on 5.2 attempts per game. Confusingly, Wagner’s free throw shooting improved marginally to 86%, as did his efficiency ten to 16 feet from the basket. I think the ship has sailed on him becoming an elite 3-point shooter, but there’s still hope he’ll rediscover his stroke and be average. Even with all of his 3-point shooting struggles, Wagner’s offensive game has continued to improve, and simply getting within striking distance of league average from three could take him to the next level. In fact, based solely on his on-off impact, you could argue he is already one of the elite players in the world. For his career, the Magic have been +9.3 points per 100 possessions better with him on the court, and he has helped Germany to consecutive major international tournament championships. When a player has good stats and great results, it’s hard to argue that they’re not one of the best players in the league.

3. Jimmy Butler: Golden State Warriors

I think people generally understand that Jimmy Butler is a great player, but I don’t think people understand just how great. The myth of Jimmy is of a player who lies coiled in wait during the regular season, before unleashing the fury of the gods in the playoffs. And while he does raise his level a bit in the playoffs, he’s also a monster during the regular season, and how he goes about it is informative about what wins basketball games. For his career, a 14-season sample, Butler owns a +6.4 on-off net rating. He has never had a negative full-season on-off net rating, with his worst showing coming in at +2.3, and in nine out of 14 seasons, it has eclipsed +5.0. So, how does Butler consistently drag his teams to wins? Free throws and turnovers. This is not a slight, but Butler is one of the all-time free throw grifters. His career 6.7 free throw attempts per game ranks 42nd all-time*, despite his career 12.6 field goal attempts not even ranking in the top-250. His ability to get to the line is why he can own a career eFG%+ of 96 (100 is league average) and a TS%+ of 106. While free throw generation is his offensive foundation, what takes Butler to the next level is that he is one of the league’s most efficient passers. Last season, he was one of five players to average over eight assists per 100 possessions (8.3) and under 2.5 turnovers (2.1). The other four were Tyrese Haliburton, Mike Conley, Tyus Jones, and, somehow, Cameron Payne. Among the quintet, he averaged the most points per 100 possessions (27.2) and had the highest true shooting (62.6%). Basically, Butler gives you elite point guard production from the wing. On defense, he is a menace off the ball. His career 2.4% steal percentage ranks 73rd all-time, despite playing in the lowest steal era, and he has finished in the top-20 eight times, with four coming since 2019-20. The areas where Butler gives his teams a massive edge– free throws and possessions– aren’t the first places people check in the box score, but they’re incredibly valuable. The only reason he isn’t in the tier above is that at 36, he’s clearly entering a phase of his career where he’s a complementary star, and not the driving force. The Warriors’ metamorphosis from an average to an excellent team as soon as he arrived shouldn’t have been shocking. That’s just what Jimmy does.

*(Note: Butler’s all-time ranks are NBA figures and don’t include ABA stats)

Build a High-Level Team Around

2. Kawhi Leonard: Los Angeles Clippers

I don’t care about games played. I don’t care about Aspiration. And I don’t care about Uncle Dennis. Kawhi Leonard deserved all that money and more because his presence alone makes you a contender. Now, would it be great if his presence were an everyday thing? Absolutely, but as you can see, the small forward position is in serious flux. Leonard is a known commodity at this point. He’s an elite three-level scorer, a defensive menace, an absolute game wrecker, and a playoff riser. His full-season stats last season weren’t impressive, but they obscure just how good he was once he got his legs under him. Due to injury, Leonard missed the first 34 games of the season and then didn’t play 30 minutes in a game until February 8th, but once he did, the Clippers morphed into a juggernaut. From that point on, Leonard averaged 24.2 points, 6.6 rebounds, 3.5 assists, and 1.9 steals per game on an eFG% of 57.5%. The Clippers went 18-7 in the games he played and had a net rating of +8.6 over their final 31 games. Before that, they were 28-23 with a net rating of +2.4. Leonard acting as a transformative player is nothing new. His career on-off net rating is +7.2. And as his 39-point masterpiece in game two against the Nuggets showed, he can still be an unguardable nightmare. When his jumper is truly on, he goes from the claw to Freddy Krueger’s right hand. I have no idea how many games he’ll play and if he’ll be healthy in the playoffs, but building your team around him is worth it. There aren’t ten players in the world better than a healthy Kawhi, and the risk of lost seasons is worth the pursuit of championships.

LeBron James: Los Angeles Lakers

Entering year 23, LeBron James should not be the best small forward in the NBA. It is preposterous. His longevity is the greatest in the history of sport. Yes, sport, like all of the sports. No one has ever played at a higher level for longer. And somehow, I don’t really see any reason for it to stop. Last season, James was one of two qualified players, along with Nikola Jokic, to average over 24.0 points, 8.0 assists, and 7.5 rebounds per game, and he did it on an eFG% of 57.1%. He’s no longer the player he was at his peak, but he finished eighth in box plus/minus (BPM) last season (5.6). Even with some decline baked in, a BPM of 5.0 would see him finish as a top-15 player. At his age, with his mileage, there’s always the chance that the wheels fall off, but we’ve been saying that for a fucking decade, and all he has done is win a title with two different franchises and make ten All-NBA teams. Now, this season, for the first time, LeBron won’t start the season healthy as he deals with sciatica. However, I’m not overly concerned. Over the past two seasons, he has played in 141 out of 164 games and has shown an incredible ability to manage aches and pains. The thing that is a tad concerning is that last season saw him post his first negative on-off net rating in his career. Now, it’d be foolish not to weigh the 21 seasons with a +10.8 on/off net rating more heavily than the single season at -5.3. It’s also true that a perfect storm of 3-point variance might simply be the explanation, as the Lakers shot better from three without him, and opponents shot far better from three with him on the court. Perhaps that’s a sign of age catching up to him, or perhaps, if you play 23 seasons, a shit storm is bound to hit once. The stable combination of availability and production is what makes LeBron the best small forward in the league. If he’s not your GOAT, then he’s the GOAT of his era. Appreciate it while you still can because he won’t be around forever.

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That concludes my small forward rankings. If you’ve made it this far, I’d love a comment on omissions and any rankings you did or did not like. And don’t forget to keep an eye out for the next installment.

For any inquiries about work, discussion, and the like, you can email me at nevin.l.brown@gmail.com.