NBA Trade Season Primer: Starry Players
The 12 stars of trade season
December 15th is the unofficial beginning of NBA trade season. The reason for this is quite simple. It’s the date when players who signed free agent contracts in the offseason can officially be moved. This cohort of 82 players constitutes a surprisingly large portion of the league (18.8%), and the massive influx of tradable players makes deal-making far easier. There are still some players who can’t be moved at all this season or until a later date, but when 90% of the league can officially be moved, ‘tis the trade season.
The driving force of trade season, much like the league at large, is stars. Do moves that round out the rotation or plug an injury-plagued hole have value? Yes, but they don’t move the emotional or championship needle quite like, say, landing Giannis Antetokounmpo. Mechanically, the vast majority of star players can be traded, but almost all of them are off limits, unless they’re part of a star trade themselves. These are the 12 starry players who could change addresses this trade season, the chances they will, and what it should cost to pry them away.
Giannis Antetokounmpo
The chances that Giannis gets moved in-season feel quite low, but that’s mostly because neither the Bucks nor Giannis has committed to taking that step. Even though a trade feels inevitable, inevitable isn’t a synonym for imminent, and this is looking more and more like an off-season deal.
The most difficult hurdle for any in-season Giannis trade is financial. His $54.1 million is a bargain from a production standpoint, but it’s tied for the fifth-highest salary commitment this season. Few competitive teams can afford to add salary, and no matter what, you’ll have to gut some of your depth to make the money work. Due to the fact that the Bucks and Giannis haven’t said they’re working on a trade, and the difficulties in finding a deal that will satisfy all parties, the likelihood of a Giannis trade, right now, is about 25%.
Part of my skepticism of a deal getting done before the trade deadline is that the cost to acquire Giannis will be massive. Many in the media seem to believe that Gianis’s market won’t reach the heights of previous star trades, but I think that’s them taking too much stock in what mid-level, risk-averse executives are feeding them. A player of Giannis’s quality has not been available on the trade market since James Harden in early 2021, and he cost three first-round picks, four first-round swaps, Jarrett Allen, Taurean Prince, Caris LeVert, and Rodions Kurucs.
Does that mean the Bucks will get that level of a haul? Probably not, as I think organizations understand that such massive outlays of pick capital leave you too overleveraged and exposed to risk, but it doesn’t mean he won’t land the Bucks a combination of five first-round picks-plus-swaps, as well as a promising young player, and a quality veteran or two to boot. I have a principle called the “money on the table principle.” It’s really easy to say you will or won’t do something when it’s just a hypothetical, but that all changes when the money is staring right back at you. Giannis isn’t on the table yet, but when he is, I expect the offers to be irresponsibly massive because he makes you a contender.
Zach LaVine
Going from Giannis Antetokounmpo to Zach LaVine in the trade machine is like deciding your smartphone really isn’t that much more useful than a telegram. When discussing Giannis, you don’t even need to explain how good he is at basketball; everyone just knows he’s great. However, when bringing up LaVine, you have to remind people that he’s actually pretty good at basketball, too.
In what’s a down season, LaVine is averaging 20.2 points per game on a True Shooting (TS%) of 61.8%, which is six percent above the league average. Among the 34 players averaging 20 or more points per game, his eFG% (57.8%) is the ninth highest, and his TS% is 13th. Efficient volume scoring is always in style, and LaVine is one of the best bets to provide that. Unfortunately, that’s where his value begins and ends. He’s a poor passer, rebounder, and defender, and has basically never had a positive on-court or on-off net rating in his career.
The Kings’ decision to acquire LaVine as part of the De’Aaron Fox trade was defensible, but they’re 6-20 and need to do a hard reset as a franchise (which is something a telegram never needs, just saying). According to reports, pretty much everyone on the Kings roster is available, but the chance LaVine gets moved depends on one thing: does anyone want him?
The crux of the issue facing LaVine and the Kings in any deal is his $47.5 million salary for this season and $48.9 million player option in 2026-27. This is a toxic contract, because while LaVine is a good player, he’s not the 17th-best player in the league like his salary suggests. I think the Kings would move him in a heartbeat if they could get some less toxic money on their books, even if it stretches a bit longer. However, I just don’t see any team stupid or desperate enough to make that type of deal. I think the chances LaVine gets moved are hovering around 10%, and the cost to land him is basically nothing but salary and a fake draft pick to prevent the fanbase from crying themselves to sleep.
Lauri Markkanen
I’ve long been a Lauri Markkanen stan. I ranked him as the tenth-best power forward in the league and in the second star tier. That was a hedge on a bounce back from a poor 2024-25, and he’s made me look stupid for ranking him that low. He’s currently averaging 27.8 points per game on a TS% of 60.7% as a seven-foot movement shooter. Markkanen has yet to play for a playoff team, but over the past five seasons, his teams have been +8.1 points per 100 possessions better with him on the court.
Now, the chance that Markkanen gets moved is murky. The Jazz don’t seem intent on moving him. Markkanen doesn’t seem itchy to get dealt. But as a 28-year-old All-Star who has never made the playoffs on a 10-15 team with a top-eight protected pick, he really feels like a trade candidate. Under Danny Ainge, the Jazz have been tight-lipped and intentional with their trades. The fact that there is no noise coming out of Utah doesn’t mean there isn’t any activity. While the public posturing suggests he’s not available, I think there’s a 40% chance he gets moved before the deadline.
The cost to acquire Markkanen won’t reach Giannis-levels, but he should still net a massive haul. He’s owed $46.4 million this season, but he’s also under contract the next three years for a total of $195.9 million. That’s pricey, but you’re trading for a star who is locked in throughout the remainder of their prime, and can help you over four playoff runs. I’d imagine the Jazz will only part with him if they’re blown away, but a combination of four first-round picks-plus-swaps, a young player, and non-toxic veteran money is approaching hurricane force winds. That might sound like too much, but Markkanen is a seamless fit just about anywhere, is under control for four seasons, and has been in the top-20 of offensive box plus/minus in three of the past four seasons.
Trae Young
Trae Young is one of the most difficult players to gauge. On the one hand, he is one of the best pick-and-roll orchestrators in the world, but on the other, he’s the very worst defender in the league. His 2025-26 has been limited to five games due to a knee injury, but over the previous six seasons, he averaged 26.5 points and 10.2 assists per game on a TS% of 58.5%. His combination of league-average shooting efficiency on massive volume and league-leading passing figures adds up to an elite offensive player, but there’s one big catch. His impact appears to be declining.
Trae Young Offensive Generation Relative to the League Average
In 2020-21 and 2021-22, Young was legitimately able to lift the Hawks’ offense, relative to league average, to dazzling heights. And while his on-court offensive rating hasn’t diminished much in the years since, the rest of the league has improved substantially. Essentially, how you value Young comes down to what you make of this trend because the defense has remained severely negative.
The Hawks and Young haven’t publicly crossed the trade Rubicon, but the fact that an extension never came tells you all you need to know. I doubt the Hawks want to shop Young, but in light of how they’ve played without him this season, they’re likely open to offers. This is the final year of his deal before a $48.9 million player option, which makes a mid-season deal a bit of a toss-up. I think the chances he’s moved are relatively low (10-15%), unless he’s part of a trade for an even better player, which seems more likely.
If I were running a team, I wouldn’t touch Young with a ten-foot pole. I think his offensive impact has gone from the top one percent to just the top ten, while his defensive impact has remained in the bottom one percent the whole time. He’s still a good player, but trading away assets for a player who is looking for a max extension this summer is the fastest way to give a player a max contract you regret. Now, I don’t run a team, but I think a fair value for Young would be neutral-value matching-money and two first-round picks. This is a similar value to what the Kings received for De’Aaron Fox when you consider the Kings probably thought LaVine was a decent pickup.
Domantas Sabonis
Before suffering a meniscus injury, Sabonis was in the midst of his worst season since 2017-18, when he was a 21-year-old second-year player. However, 11 relatively subpar games don’t undo a six-season run where he averaged 19.2 points, 12.8 rebounds, and 6.5 assists per game on 63.2% TS%. Regardless of where you stand on Sabonis, the fact is that he has been one of the most reliably productive centers in the league.
Similar to Zach LaVine, I think the Kings and Sabonis would jump at the opportunity to part ways. Unfortunately, Sabonis occupies a weird space among NBA players. He’s clearly very talented and productive, but it’s an open question if he actually raises your ceiling. During that comically productive six-season run, he had a +1.1 on-court net rating and a +1.1 on/off net rating. While that’s far better than LaVine, most teams believe their $10 million meat-and-potatoes center has that type of impact. I think the chances Sabonis gets moved in-season are around 20%, with an offseason departure being far more likely.
If the Kings do move Sabonis, the return will probably be lighter than you’d expect from a player with his production. He’s owed $42.3 million this season, $45.5 million in 2026-27, and $48.6 million in 2027-28. Those are big numbers, but they’re also not crazy. He’s around the 25th-highest-paid player in the league right now, and that could easily drop into the 30s by the time he’s on an expiring contract in 2027-28. I’d guess the Kings would be willing to move on from him for two first-round picks-plus-swaps and money that leaves their books before the summer of 2028.
Zion Williamson
The Pelicans and Zion Williamson need to part ways. When a player as unique as Zion is available, at best, half the time, it’s impossible to build a coherent team. Similar to LaVine, Sabonis, and Young, Williamson has been far less effective in his limited game action this season. Through 11 games, he’s averaging 21.7 points per game on a career low 50.9% eFG% and 51.9% 2-point efficiency. I still think the healthy version of Zion is an All-Star caliber player, and a fully optimized roster could see him make an All-NBA team. The talent and production are still there, but he’s not so overwhelmingly dominant when he’s healthy that you’ll tolerate the absences.
The Pelicans have no reason to shop Zion when his value is probably as low as it is. However, they shouldn’t keep him just because they don’t own their own pick this season, but there is no incentive to move him for minimal value. The likelihood Zion gets moved in-season can’t be more than 10%, and probably isn’t even at 5%. As much as I would love for the two parties to part ways, I think the Pelicans will look to shop him in the offseason when more teams will be willing and able to take him on.
Even though I’m pessimistic about a Zion trade, I still think he’d return a decent haul. He’s only making $39.4 million this season, and has two more years of team control at $42.1 and $44.8 million. The Pelicans famously have substantial non-guarantee triggers due to injury, so there’s not nearly as much financial downside should things go wrong. I’d imagine he’d still fetch two first-round picks and matching money through trade, just because any team trading for him will believe they can keep him on the court.
Ja Morant
Personally, I think if the Grizzlies were offered something substantial for Ja Morant, they’d move him in an instant, which is rarely a good sign. Morant is suffering through an incredibly poor start to the season, and while I think the depths he currently occupies don’t accurately represent his true talent level, his struggles all stem from a continuation of the same decline. Morant’s one weird trick that had him on an All-NBA team and barreling towards face of the league status was his ability to get to the rim and finish. From that singular skill, his entire game flowed, but this season the faucet has been turned off.
Ja Morant Rim Pressure and 3P
This chart is not breaking news, but it highlights the problem with any Morant trade. While his finishing within ten feet will surely improve, the team that acquires him has to believe they can get him there with significantly more frequency, because the 3-point shot is busted. Now, for as much ink has been spilt on Morant’s rim pressure, it does miss a crucial part of his game– he is and always has been an excellent passer.
Morant has never actually been a great scorer. He has one season with a true shooting percentage above the league average. That doesn’t mean he isn’t a good scorer when you factor in volume, but the main thing has always been the drive and dish. Here, Morant’s season has been a mixed bag. His assist percentage of 41.7% is the second highest of his career, and his 12.7 assists per 100 possessions are the highest. However, those figures have come with career-worst turnover figures.
At the end of the day, I don’t see any way that Morant gets traded this season. He has simply been too bad and already has too much baggage. Unless he forces their hand, which is a distinct possibility, I have an in-season Morant trade at around one percent.
As for what’s a fair value for Morant, that’s an interesting question. He’s on the same contract as Zion Williamson, just without the non-guarantee triggers, but unlike Zion, he has been in the midst of a pronounced multi-year decline. Depending on the matching salary, I think Morant would only fetch a single first-round pick if traded in-season, which is why the Grizzlies would be mad to move him. Now, if he comes back and approaches the level he has shown before, then it’s a different story, but right now, Morant’s value is at rock bottom.
Michael Porter Jr
Finally, a player who isn’t sucking ass this season. Michael Porter Jr is in the midst of a career year by doing what he do. Through 21 games, he’s averaging 25.6 points, 7.3 rebounds, and 3.2 assists per game on a TS% of 62.7%. Last season, he shot 39.5% from three on 6.4 attempts per game and 59.9% on 7.3 2-point attempts per game. This season, he’s shooting 39.9% from three on nine attempts and 59.1% on 9.4 2-point attempts per game. It’s not wholly surprising that Porter is relatively volume agnostic due to his incredible combination of size and shooting, but the list of players who improve their TS% while experiencing a bump in usage from 20% to 30% is shorter than Muggsy Bogues.
Porter has a credible All-Star case this season, and I hope he gets it. Among players averaging 25 or more points per game, his eFG% of 59.5% is third, behind only Nikola Jokic and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. The Nets might be 7-18, but they’re +6.0 points per 100 possessions better with Porter on the court. Through the early part of the season, Porter has been a top-25 player, and he isn’t really doing anything out of the ordinary.
For as great as Porter has been this season, it would behoove the Nets to move him as soon as possible. I know everyone loves it when a tanking team is surprisingly plucky, but the Nets cannot fuck up another tank. They’re still in the throes of a rebuild, have no tentpole young player to speak of, and don’t control their pick next season. No other franchise needs a top-five pick more, and I think they understand that, which is why I think the chances that Porter gets moved before the deadline are around 50%.
Trying to parse Porter’s trade value is difficult. He was just traded by the Nuggets with a pick attached in a high-end salary dump. Now, the Nuggets acquired Cameron Johnson, who was coming off a better season and owed significantly less money, but clearly the rest of the league wasn’t too smitten by the $38.3 million he’s owed this season and the $40.8 million for 2026-27. However, if he can keep this up, I think that all changes.
Any team that wants Lauri Markkanen could easily pivot to Porter. He’s younger, cheaper, more durable, has actual playoff experience, and arguably has been better this season. If I’m the Nets, I want matching salary and the equivalent of three first-round picks-plus-swaps, which could take the form of a young player, a pick, and a swap. That sounds like a lot, but there’s a lot to like about 25 points on elite efficiency coming from a 6’10 guy.
LaMelo Ball
I will stan for LaMelo Ball until the cows revolt and become our masters. If Ball could ever stay healthy for more than a month at a time, he’d remind everyone just how good a player he is. Over the past four seasons, he has only played 121 games, which is bad, but he has averaged 23.6 points and 8.0 assists per game, which is good. His combination of passing and size, along with truly absurdist levels of 3-point volume, lead to a highly impactful offensive player. His defense is lackadaisical, but at 6’7, he at least has some utility.
The availability issues with LaMelo have him in the Zion Williamson camp of players who are productive enough to build around, but the lack of reliability makes it extremely difficult. I have no idea if the Hornets want to move off of Ball, but LaMelo made some suggestions that he’d be open to a move. Considering his health, I think an in-season move is highly unlikely, but if he finishes this season at 65 games played, a summer move could materialize.
Ball’s trade value basically comes down to what your medical staff says. He’s a highly impactful offensive player, won’t turn 25 until August, and is under contract through 2028-29 for a total of $168.7 million. If you think he can average 60 to 65 games played over that span, he’ll be well worth the approximately 25% of the salary cap he takes up. Unfortunately, expecting him to play 60 games feels like wishful thinking at this stage. If the Hornets want to move him, I think salary that gets off their books over the next two seasons and the equivalent of two first round picks-plus-swaps would be enough for them to turn the page.
Jaren Jackson Jr
A Jaren Jackson trade is highly speculative, but there’s a chance the Grizzlies decide they need to enter a rebuild. They sold the Desmond Bane trade as a way to retool, but if retooling means hovering below .500 while Ja Morant plays his way into an albatross, then blowing the whole thing up makes a ton of sense. The Grizzlies already have one foot in the rebuilding door, and moving Jackson would accelerate their turnaround dramatically.
Unfortunately, part of the Grizzlies’ woes is due to Jackson having a bit of a down year. His efficiency from the field is down only a tad, but so is his shooting volume, and his ability to generate free throws has completely evaporated. His -1.4 offensive box plus/minus is the lowest of his career, and his defensive impact has waned since his Defensive Player of the Year in 2022-23. However, I think most teams believe in his trackrecord on both ends. He didn’t have a normal offseason due to toe surgery, and most of his efficiency decline is down to an uncharacteristic drop in rim frequency and finishing, which seems to be afflicting every Grizzly.
Due to an offseason re-negotiation and extension, the Grizzlies cannot trade Jackson until January 13th, and his availability will likely come down to the standings. If the Grizzlies remain mired below .500, it wouldn’t shock me if his name becomes a hot topic leading up to the trade deadline. But if they can surge up the standings and solidify a play-in spot, I think they’ll play out the season and rethink the roster in the offseason.
The main reason the Grizzlies might opt to move Jackson this season, as opposed to in the summer, is due to his contract. He’s owed $35 million this season, but that figure jumps to $49 million in the summer. Should he get moved before the deadline, I think matching salary and three or four first-round picks-plus-swaps would be a fair deal. It’s not so much that his value in the summer will decline; it’s that the increased matching salary will eat away at the pick value coming back.
Julius Randle
The idea that a contender like the Minnesota Timberwolves would trade Julius Randle seems ridiculous, but there’s some merit to the idea. Randle is enjoying one of the best seasons of his career. He’s averaging 23 points, 7.2 rebounds, and 5.7 assists per game on a TS% of 61%, and the 17-9 Timberwolves are +7.2 points per 100 possessions better with him on the court. Generally, playoff teams don’t trade away players who are actively helping them be a playoff team, but the Wolves are in a precarious position.
When the Wolves traded Karl-Anthony Towns for Randle, it was to avoid salary armageddon. And while it helped stave off financial ruin in the short-term, it didn’t neutralize the threat altogether. Just look at their books over the next two seasons.
In 2026-27, the Wolves, assuming all team options are exercised, have $197.3 million committed to ten players, and in 2027-28, assuming all options are exercised, it’s $197.5 million for eight players. When you factor in the roster’s age, their dearth of future assets, and their distance from contention, moving Randle now for picks and salary relief could help them reopen their contention window when Anthony Edwards is in his prime.
I doubt the Wolves go down this route, considering they’ve made the Western Conference Finals in consecutive seasons and own a +4.8 net rating, but it would be a prudent move. I’m not sure how much value Randle has on the open market, but getting a first-round pick and turning his salary slot into two players could help them tremendously down the line. Come the summer of 2027, the Wolves will either have to pay Randle and Gobert $73.8 million to be expiring contracts, extend them deep into their 30s to lower their cap hit, or see them walk for nothing.
DeMar DeRozan
DeMar DeRozan is a bizarre player. Statistically, he looks like a Hall of Famer. Over a 17-season career, he has averaged 21.2 points per game, racked up six All-Star appearances, and made three All-NBA teams. His teams have also been -1.5 points per 100 possessions worse with him on the court. If you want to enjoy empty calories, you can either head to the snack food section or fire up a Kings game on League Pass. That being said, DeRozan is still a good player who would be a dynamite sixth man for a contender.
The Kings undoubtedly would love to move DeRozan, and his contract isn’t so onerous that that’s an impossibility. He’s owed $24.6 million this season, and only $10 million of his $25.7 million salary is guaranteed for 2026-27. However, his salary does become fully guaranteed for 2026-27 if his team makes the NBA Finals and he hits 60 games played, which is a problem every team would sign up for. Unlike many of these stars, DeRozan is on a reasonable contract, and his team sincerely would like him to leave. I think the chances he gets moved are about 75%, with the biggest concern being the Kings screwing it up.
As for trade value, I think the Kings shouldn’t be afraid to take on bad salary if they get more future assets. DeRozan’s value is around four second-round picks right now, which is probably a bit more than what most teams would like to pay, but second-round picks are basically imaginary assets. If the Kings are willing to absorb the remainder of Jerami Grant’s contract, they could easily net a first. I think DeRozan’s value lies predominantly in his $10 million guarantee being a nice little accounting trick, and the Kings should leverage that to its fullest.
For any inquiries about work, discussion, and the like, you can email me at nevin.l.brown@gmail.com.