One Weird Stat I’m Looking Into…That You Should Too– If You’re a Sicko

Sometimes, where there is smoke, there is fire

Something I long for is a single statistic that accurately gauges perimeter defense. Dillon Brooks, one of the league’s premier on-ball hounds, has a career defensive box plus/minus of -0.7 because very little of what he does actually ends up in a box score. For as much as BPM is able to capture offense, defensive impact remains more elusive. With the advent of tracking data, we’re getting better insights into what makes a great perimeter defender, but most of the machinations are hidden behind a proprietary paywall. However, I think I’ve found one weird stat that may shine a brighter light on perimeter defense.

Everyone knows drawing offensive fouls is a good thing for defenders. Not only is it a turnover, but you also add a foul to the opposition's ledger. Now, when most people think about drawing an offensive foul, their mind instantly conjures up an image of a player sliding their feet, establishing their presence, grabbing their nuts, and then getting absolutely decked– or in other words, taking a charge.

Charges are the most recognizable and intentional way to generate an offensive foul, but they’re actually a rather poor way to judge perimeter defense. Take the most recent season as an example, Toumani Camara led the league in charges drawn with 31. He’s an excellent defender and will feature again soon, but the guys following him, in order, were Austin Reaves, Brandin Podziemski, Jalen Brunson, Tim Hardaway Jr., and Isaiah Joe. In most cases, perimeter defenders rack up charges not because they’re good at perimeter defense, but because it’s one of the few ways they can help out.

However, if you look at the offensive fouls drawn leaderboard, something miraculous occurs– you start seeing good perimeter defenders. The league leader, once again, is Toumani Camara with 91, followed by Davion Mitchell, Lu Dort, Jalen Brunson, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, and Jaylen Wells. This happenstance of statistics led me to a serious question: are non-charge offensive fouls drawn a good proxy for perimeter defense? I’ll let the leaderboard speak for itself.

As much as I wish this were like discovering the Rosetta Stone of perimeter defense, the metric isn’t infallible, but that doesn’t mean it isn’t promising. The top four spots are all occupied by reputationally great defenders, and many of the poorer defenders on this list get there through sheer volume of minutes, and the logic behind some level of correlation is sound.

Part of what makes a strong perimeter defender is their ability to stick close to their man and avoid the meat of a screen. A large portion of offensive fouls are simply screeners, realizing they’re less a roadblock and more one of those orange barrels off to the side, trying to move their way into a defender’s path. Naturally, more robust perimeter defenders should draw more of these types of fouls.

I aim to look for other metrics to help weed out the Jalen Brunsons and Trae Youngs of the world, but I think offensive fouls drawn minus charges is a promising statistical glimpse into what makes a perimeter defender impenetrable.

For any inquiries about work, discussion, and the like, you can email me at nevin.l.brown@gmail.com.