Rookie Scale Extension Banaza
The goal isn't to get drafted, it's to get that second contract
The 2021 NBA draft has produced a host of exciting young players. Cade Cunningham, Franz Wagner, Evan Mobley, and Scottie Barnes all landed rookie scale max extensions in July that will pay them, at minimum, $224 million over five seasons. While these max extensions got done incredibly quickly, the rest of the 2021 draft class had to wait until the final whistle to land their next NBA contract.
A few prominent players from the 2021 class, Jonathan Kuminga, Josh Giddey, and Santi Aldama, did not receive extensions and will try their hand at restricted free agency in the summer. While I believe teams would benefit financially from sending more players to restricted free agency, keeping the troops happy has incredible value as well. Instead, we’ll focus on the eight players to land rookie scale extensions on the final day of eligibility. But first, a quick refresher of the NBA’s current economic landscape.
The NBA’s current economic context
The NBA is awash in money. The sport’s continued growth and new television rights deals will propel salary cap raises of the maximum 10% for the foreseeable future. The league’s current economic health in conjuncture with rules limiting the amount players can earn (35% of the salary cap, but many are capped at 25% due to service time and not making an All-NBA team) and the maximum allowable raise (8% of a contract’s first-year value) means every contract handed out will be declining as a percentage of the cap. While this won’t continue forever, it has put an indefinite hold on franchise-altering albatross contracts.
However, the implementation of more draconian rules for teams who venture over the salary cap and into the dreaded aprons means squeezing every last bit of value out of a negotiation can be the difference between competing at the highest level and having your owner cite poverty as an excuse for inaction.
The contradictory nature of the NBA’s current economic landscape where penny-pinching is both necessary and incredulous means you can justifiably believe any contract is excellent or putrid. That being said, the truth is that good, bad, and okay are all relative. So while none of these contracts will break a franchise into two, we have to remember that a bad contract will look a lot better than the ones we’re used to.
*The percent of the salary cap figure is for the life of the deal and is based on the NBA’s projected $154.6 million salary cap figure for the 2025-26 season followed by 10% raises in subsequent seasons
Moses Moody: 3 years, $39 million, 7.62% of Cap
Moses Moody, due to circumstances, has never really been given a chance to showcase his abilities. If he had been drafted by a team with lesser ambitions, there’s a good chance he would have landed a much more substantial deal. Even in limited minutes, he has shot 36.2% from three as a wing, which is an archetype that generally gets paid in free agency. This is a great contract for the Warriors, and if Moody ever gets a real run of games over the next four seasons, it could go down as one of the best role-player contracts in the league. $39 million is a lot of money, but I’d be willing to bet Moody would have landed close to double that figure if he had been given more than 2,500 minutes over his first three seasons.
Jalen Johnson: 5 years, $150 million, 15.89% of Cap
Jalen Johnson picked a great time to break out. Before his 2023-24 season, where he averaged 16 points, 8.7 rebounds, and 3.6 assists per game on a 56.2 effective field goal percent, he had played in a grand total of 92 games with six starts and averaged 4.9 points, 3.3 rebounds, and 0.9 assists. Apparently, 56 games of excellence was enough for the Hawks to commit 15% of their salary cap over five seasons to him, and I can’t really blame them. This is a dynamic power forward with a unique skill set. It’ll take another season before anyone should buy into his 35.5% 3-point shooting from last season, but this is a power forward capable of real creation. If he continues to ascend, it’s a bargain. If he stagnates, it’s a bargain. And if he regresses, it’s just a “meh” contract by the end. From what I hear, deals with tons of upside and little downside are generally well thought of.
Jalen Suggs: 5 years, $150.5 million, 15.94% of Cap
Jalen Suggs landed almost an identical deal to Jalen Johnson, but I’m far less enthralled with it. Suggs was excellent last season and proved to be one of the best perimeter defenders in the league while converting 39.7% of his threes. Based exclusively on last season, this is a totally reasonable deal for a valuable starting-level player. However, Suggs had shot 27.1% from three over his first two seasons. If the 3-point shooting is real, then locking up an elite 3-and-D guard for 16% of your cap is a fantastic bit of business. Now, if the 3-point shooting regresses, suddenly you’re looking at a far less interesting player. The bar for 3-point shooting is much higher for guards than for forwards, and that goes doubly for a guard who hasn’t shown a ton of ability to create on the ball. Later reporting has revealed the deal to be descending, starting at $35 million and finishing at $26.7 million in 2029-30 when the salary cap is projected to be $226.4 million. Suggs eating up 22.6% of the Magic’s cap in 2025-26 isn’t ideal, but by the final year, he’ll only be taking up 11.8% of their cap sheet. This is an excellent structure for the Magic and raises the contract a full letter grade in my eyes.
Alperen Sengun: 5 years, $185 million, fifth-year player option, 19.59% of Cap
Of all the players to land rookie scale extensions on the final day, Sengun is the only player who could have credibly asked for the max. In fact, Sengun led all players from the 2021 draft in Box Plus/Minus (4.9) for the 2023-24 season. He has a real chance to make the All-Star team this season and an outside shot of earning an All-NBA selection. The fact that the Rockets were able to extend him for less than the max is an absolute steal, and this could end up being one of the best contracts in the league as soon as it kicks in. The fifth-year player option is a completely fair compromise for Sengun and the Rockets, and with how well he has played in his career, he’ll likely opt out and land a massive new deal in the summer of 2029.
Jalen Green: 3 years, $106 million, third-year player option & 10% trade kicker, 20.71% of Cap
Jalen Green’s extension, in my view, is the absolute worst rookie scale extension handed out in this window. The Rockets are overpaying him based on his career production, and if he finally has a breakout, he’ll be able to opt out after two seasons and land a massive payday. There’s no upside for the Rockets on this contract and a ton of downside. When teams overpay players they’re supposed to get concessions, but instead, Green got overpaid and got all the bells and whistles he could have hoped for in a player option and trade kicker. It’s believed this contract was handed out to be used as salary ballast in a trade, which makes it understandable, but that doesn’t make the extension better. Green has been a massive disappointment throughout his short career and landed the most player-friendly extension out of this cohort. It’s fantastic work by his agent and congratulations to him, but the Rockets could rue this decision if they don’t end up trading him.
Corey Kispert: 4 years, $54 million, 5.72% of Cap
Corey Kispert landed life-changing money that is inconsequential in the grand scheme of NBA contracts. He’s a solid player making mid-level money. It’s not an exciting deal, but it’s a good one, and it should have trade value as soon as Kispert is eligible to be traded. Everyone is looking for more shooting and that’s the one thing Kispert can do. Career 38.8% 3-point shooters on 7.2 attempts per 36 minutes don’t exactly grow on trees.
Trey Murphy III: 4 years, $112 million, 15.61% of Cap
I love this contract. Trey Murphy is a true 3-and-D wing, and he’s one of the best volume 3-point shooters regardless of position. Last season, he was one of 17 players to average over seven 3-point attempts per game on 37.5% or better efficiency (7.8 attempts and 38%), and out of that group, he was one of four listed at 6’8 or taller with Jayson Tatum, Lauri Markkanen, and Paul George. For under $30 million a season, the Pelicans now have a player who my projection system pegged for a max. While I’m dubious he would land a max deal on the open market, I think he’d get awfully close, and this deal has him nowhere near that type of money. If Murphy has any sort of breakout as a self-creator, this suddenly becomes one of the best contracts in the league. And even if he maintains his already established level this is still a bargain deal. The Pelicans have a weirdly constructed roster, but Murphy’s 3-and-D ability is one of the keys to making it work. He’d fit into any team’s starting lineup because 6’8 guys who can defend and shoot are the most portable players around.
Jaden Hardy: 3 years, $18 million, 3.52% of Cap
Congratulations to Jaden Hardy on landing a second contract. It can be difficult for second-round picks to stick around at anything more than the minimum or two-ways. Chances are he’s just a rotation guard over the life of this deal but at $6 million a season that’s a solid investment. He was a well thought of amateur player so there is a bit of upside not usually seen among players of his draft pedigree.