Scoot Henderson, Maybe Kinda Good
The forgotten man of the 2023 Draft might finally be breaking out
The 2023 NBA Draft has the opportunity to go down as one of the best drafts of the 21st century. The headliner and first overall pick, Victor Wembanyama, is on pace to be the best player in the league, the greatest defensive player ever, and has a realistic shot to claim the Greatest of All Time mantle. Any draft with an All-Time great player gets a boost, but drafts aren’t solely judged by their best player; they’re judged by their depth of excellence, and it’s in this area where the 2023 Draft’s legacy will be made.
While no one outside of Wembanyama has made an All-Star team, Amen Thompson, Brandon Miller, and Keyonte George look poised to knock on that door very soon, and there is a tremendous amount of quality flanking them. Ausar Thompson, Anthony Black, Cason Wallace, Dereck Lively II, Jaime Jaquez Jr., Brandin Podziemski, and Toumani Camara have already proven to be quality rotation pieces, and it doesn’t take a lot of imagination to see Gradey Dick, Bilal Coulibaly, Jarace Walker, and others joining them. However, there’s one player who could swing this draft into the pantheon of all-time great drafts– Scoot Henderson.
Don’t You Forget About Scoot
The reason why the 2023 Draft was so hyped in the first place was due to the presence of Victor Wembanyama and Scoot Henderson. Everyone understood that Wembanyama was a generational talent, but Henderson was viewed as a first-overall-pick quality prospect in an average draft. He was even dubbed the best point guard prospect since John Wall. However, on draft night, Henderson fell to third and hasn’t really stopped falling, until maybe now.
The NBA is a hostile place for young guards. The game moves at warp speed compared to every other league. Every physical advantage is severely blunted. Each problem is more complex, and the timer is always a fraction closer to zero. Playing point guard in the NBA is like solving a Rubik’s Cube while driving a race car, and learning on the job makes the deep end look like a glass of water. The fact that Scoot Henderson had a rough rookie season wasn’t a surprise, but it did raise far more questions than expected. It’s one thing to be bad; it’s another to look completely overmatched.
After a rookie season that saw him average 14 points, 5.4 assists, and 3.4 turnovers on a 48.9% true shooting percentage (TS%), the only place to go was up, or out of the league entirely. Fortunately, Henderson’s second season saw him make improvements across the board. In reduced minutes, he averaged 12.7 points, 5.1 assists, and 2.7 turnovers per game on 54% TS%. While those improvements boosted his offensive box plus/minus (OBPM) from -3.5 to -1.4, it didn’t change the fact that he was still one of the worst offensive players in the league.
The trackrecord for players who struggle this mightily is pretty bleak. The NBA might be inhospitable to young guards, but the best of the best usually start to figure it out by year two, which made Henderson’s third season a make-or-break year.
Hamstrung Development
There’s never a good time to tear your hamstring, but the timing for Henderson felt cosmically cruel. He tore his left hamstring a week before training camp was slated to start, and what was initially expected to be a one-to-two-month recovery dragged on for close to five. With a looming rookie scale extension decision, this was about the worst-case scenario for both Henderson and the Trail Blazers.
There’s not enough time in the season to completely wash away Henderson’s first two seasons. He’s only played seven games, and with just 23 games remaining, against the weakest strength of schedule, it would require an absolutely nuclear run for him to erase 130 concerning games.
However, the early statistical returns have been promising. He’s shooting a career best on 2-pointers (50%), is getting to the line at the highest rate of his career (.431), while also sporting the highest 3-point attempt rate of his career (.528). It is incredibly difficult to increase both your 3-point and free throw attempt rates, which makes this a very promising improvement. His TS% of 56.6% is easily a career best and is almost at the league average, and that’s while shooting a career low 31.6% on three pointers. On top of the improved scoring efficiency, Henderson is also sporting a career best 33.9% assist percentage.
The primary reason his all-in-one metrics haven’t exploded has been an unsightly turnover rate. He’s currently averaging 7.2 turnovers per 100 possessions, but 18 of his 24 turnovers came in his first four games. It stands to reason that his turnovers will be much more manageable once he gets reacclimated to NBA game speed.
Since Henderson’s current sample size is so small, the best way to analyze his season is through the good old-fashioned eye test. These are my notes on his play thus far after watching every one of his field goal attempts, assists, and turnovers.
Scoot Henderson Scouting Report
3-point shot looks confident, smooth, and maintains solid mechanics, no matter the speed. Does a good job of getting and staying balanced. Most shots are on-line, and the arc is generally good. Is quite good at getting his elbow aligned on catch-and-shoot opportunities. Should see his 3-point efficiency push towards league average, and has long-term potential to be solid off-the-dribble.
On 2-point attempts, non-layups, needs to get more consistent arc. Added height will improve efficiency and make him harder to block. Hasn’t taken too many this season, but it was the most promising part of his scoring package in his first two seasons.
Dribble is mostly tight, but like all young guards, it could still use some work. Uses ball fakes into moves well. His combination of first-step burst, strength, and agility stands out. In a better spaced environment, he could be an auto-paint touch.
Has a noticeable next gear of speed where he is also undercontrol. It’s fun to watch him turn the corner.
Is good at shielding his man once he beats them off the dribble.
Uses the rim well to protect from contests on drives. His vertical pop isn’t as impressive, and he will need the mid-range and floater game to be solid to above average to be an above-average 2-point finisher.
Left hand needs to improve as a dribbler and finisher, but it isn’t a problem, just an area to help round out his game.
Very strong and accurate chest passer with both hands.
Plays with good pace and is always looking for hit-ahead passes. These don’t look amazing, but they’ll 100% boost your offensive efficiency.
Didn’t see a ton of pick-and-roll reps. Had one good lob to Clingan. Not sure if this is a Scoot problem or a Trail Blazers problem.
Does not use bounce passes enough and is not particularly good at them. Based on the speed and accuracy of his chest passes, this is an easy area to improve that could really open his passing arsenal.
Needs to start manipulating defenses with his eyes. Too many turnovers have been super easy and obvious for the defender to pick off.
Vision is solid, but not spectacular. He will hit and find the chances that are there, but he isn’t creating chances out of thin air.
All told, I’m cautiously optimistic about Henderson’s future. He’s going to be at worst an average defender, and despite his offensive struggles, the Trail Blazers have been significantly better with him on the court the past two seasons. His 3-point shot looks like it’ll be at least average, and his combination of athleticism, handle, and passing will all play up with a decent outside shot. I still think he could be an All-Star, but more in the Jrue Holiday mold, where he has no real weaknesses and is an on/off monster.
What this means for his future with the Trail Blazers remains to be seen. The Blazers have been willing to pay a bit more than market rate in rookie extensions to get the guy under contract. Scoot hasn’t been anywhere near good enough to warrant even a $20 million a year commitment, but I’d probably roll the dice if I were the Blazers with an offer like that. All the stuff that made him such a highly regarded prospect is there and apparent. I also think he’s very close to a 3-point shooting breakthrough, and with more reps, a lot of his turnovers should start to clear up.
For any inquiries about work, discussion, and the like, you can email me at nevin.l.brown@gmail.com.