The 2023 Meta Big Board

A big board of big boards

It feels like yesterday the Denver Nuggets were crowned NBA champions, but it’s already time to move on. For a sport so narratively tethered to championships, it is somewhat cruel that the victorious are afforded only a brief bask in the warm glow of the Larry O’Brien trophy before being cast aside for a bunch of teenagers, who will mostly amount to nothing, but such is the life of a Miss America contestant professional basketball player.

The NBA Draft is the lifeblood of the NBA. It is where one season ends and another begins. It is hope. It is despair. It is death, destroyer of worlds. It is the most critical moment in your favorite team’s future, where a single mistake could turn you into the Wizards or the Kings. But it’s also a hell of a lot of fun. In its shadow, a cottage industry has developed into a full-scale industrial enterprise, and it’s those peoples’ hard work that I have stolen, combined, and utilized to bring you Above the Break’s Meta Big Board.

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This is the third consecutive season I have made a meta big board (I’m not sure if meta is even the right word, but it works for Metacritic), and with each iteration, I have expanded and refined it. The process is incredibly simple. I take a bunch of big boards, throw their rankings into a spreadsheet, average each prospect’s ranking, and then rank them accordingly. This season, I used 14 unique big boards and added the gap between each prospect’s average ranking and their standard deviation in ranking. Some of the big boards are a bit older, some a bit newer, but I think there is value in factoring in a big board from March or April before intel, groupthink, and peer pressure sway the less brave. 

The utility of a prospect’s gap is that it helps us gauge where the talent in a draft starts to drop off. For instance, Amen Thompson and Ausar Thompson are the fourth and fifth-ranked prospects in the meta big board, but there is a 2.29 gap in their average ranking. Such a sizeable gap suggests there is a steep dropoff between the two. 

A prospect’s ranking standard deviation tells us how tightly packed their rankings are. Take Jarace Walker and Anothy Black as examples. They’re the seventh and eighth-ranked prospects, but Walker has a 3.34 standard deviation in his ranking, while Black’s is only 1.48. I’m still not sure how important this information is for a player’s future, but I think it remains a useful piece of information to gauge the likelihood of a prospect falling or rising compared to consensus. 

The meta big board contains 133 prospects, but I will only list the top 60. If you want to check out the master sheet here is the link. (Note: Some gaps will not add up because a prospect withdrew from the draft, but it’s only an issue once you get into the bottom 30 picks)

The Generational Prospect

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1. Victor Wembamya: C //  7'5", 220 lbs // France

   Average: 1.00 Gap: 1.21 Standard Deviation: 0.00

   Top-5 Prospects

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2. Scoot Henderson: PG // 6’2’’, 195 lbs // G-League Ignite

   Average: 2.21 Gap: 1.36 Standard Deviation: 0.43

3. Brandon Miller: SF // 6’8”, 200 lbs // Alabama 

   Average: 3.57 Gap: 0.71 Standard Deviation: 1.95

4. Amen Thompson: PG // 6’7’’, 199 lbs // Overtime Elite

   Average: 4.29 Gap: 2.29 Standard Deviation: 1.59

   Top-10

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5. Ausar Thompson: SG // 6’7’’, 204 lbs // Overtime Elite

   Average: 6.57 Gap: 0.36 Standard Deviation: 2.74

6. Cam Whitmore: SF // 6’7’’, 232 lbs // Villanova

   Average: 6.93 Gap: 0.64 Standard Deviation: 1.77

7. Jarace Walker: PF // 6’7’’, 233 lbs // Houston

   Average: 7.57 Gap: 0.21 Standard Deviation: 3.34

8. Anthony Black: SG // 6’7’’, 185 lbs // Arkansas

   Average: 7.79 Gap: 0.64 Standard Deviation: 1.48

9. Taylor Hendricks: PF // 6’9’’, 210 lbs // UCF

   Average: 8.43 Gap: 2.36 Standard Deviation: 2.24

   Likely Lottery

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10. Gradey Dick: SG // 6’7’’, 200 lbs // Kansas

    Average: 10.79 Gap: 0.29 Standard Deviation: 3.04

11. Cason Wallace: PG // 6’3’’, 185 lbs // Kentucky

    Average: 11.07 Gap: 2.85 Standard Deviation: 2.79

12. Keyonte George: SG // 6’4’’, 220 lbs // Baylor

    Average: 13.92 Gap: 1.22 Standard Deviation: 3.80

13. Nick Smith Jr: PG // 6’5’’, 180 lbs // Arkansas

    Average: 15.14 Gap: 1.00 Standard Deviation: 5.23

14. Kobe Bufkin: PG // 6’4’’ // Michigan

    Average: 16.14 Gap: 1.36 Standard Deviation: 4.20

15. Jalen Hood-Schifino: PG // 6’5’’, 200 lbs // Indiana

    Average: 17.50 Gap: 1.00 Standard Deviation: 6.71

16. Dereck Lively: C // 7’2’’, 215 lbs // Duke

    Average: 18.50 Gap: 0.21 Standard Deviation: 5.95

    First-Rounders

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17. Jordan Hawkins: SG // 6’5’’, 195 lbs // UConn

    Average: 18.71 Gap: 1.29 Standard Deviation: 8.46

18. Brice Sensabaugh: SF // 6’5’’, 235 lbs // Ohio State

    Average: 20.00 Gap: 0.79 Standard Deviation: 6.55

19. Leonard Miller: SF // 6’10’’, 211 lbs // G-League Ignite

    Average: 20.79 Gap: 0.07 Standard Deviation: 6.96

20. Jett Howard: SG // 6’8’’, 215 lbs // Michigan

    Average: 20.86 Gap: 1.00 Standard Deviation: 5.46

21. Bilal Coulibaly: SF // 6’7’’ // France

    Average: 21.86 Gap: 0.79 Standard Deviation:5.55

22. Kris Murray: PF // 6’8’’, 225 lbs // Iowa

    Average: 22.64 Gap: 1.43 Standard Deviation: 4.18

23. Dariq Whitehead: SG // 6’7’’, 195 lbs // Duke

    Average: 24.07 Gap: 1.79 Standard Deviation: 5.74

    Late-First or Early-Second Round Prospects

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24. GG Jackson: PF // 6’9’’, 215 lbs // South Carolina

    Average: 25.86 Gap: 0.71 Standard Deviation: 6.96

25. Maxwell Lewis: SF // 6’7’’, 185 lbs // Pepperdine

    Average: 26.57 Gap: 0.79 Standard Deviation: 8.23

26. Rayan Rupert: SG // 6’7’’, 192 lbs // France

    Average: 27.36 Gap: 0.14 Standard Deviation: 7.87

27. Colby Jones: SG // 6’5’’, 203 lbs // Xavier

    Average: 27.50 Gap: 1.36 Standard Deviation: 7.94

28. Noah Clowney: PF // 6’10’’, 205 lbs // Alabama

    Average: 28.86 Gap: 1.86 Standard Deviation: 10.95

29. Brandin Podziemski: SG // 6’6’’, 205 lbs // Santa Clara

    Average: 30.71 Gap: 1.14 Standard Deviation: 10.05

30. Trayce Jackson Davis: PF // 6’9’’, 245 lbs // Indiana

    Average: 31.86 Gap: 1.79 Standard Deviation: 8.65

31. Sidy Cissoko: SG // 6’7’’, 200 lbs // France

    Average: 33.64 Gap: 0.79 Standard Deviation: 5.73

32. James Nnaji: C // 6’10’’, 225 lbs // Nigeria 

    Average: 34.43 Gap: 0.07 Standard Deviation: 9.93

33. Marcus Sasser: PG // 6’3’’, 193 lbs // Houston

    Average: 34.50 Gap: 0.00 Standard Deviation: 7.38

34. Terquavion Smith: SG // 6’4’’, 165 lbs // NC State

    Average: 34.50 Gap: 0.29 Standard Deviation: 7.25

35. Jaime Jaquez Jr: SF // 6’6’’, 225 lbs // UCLA

    Average: 34.79 Gap: 0.13 Standard Deviation: 4.68

36. Andre Jackson: SG // 6’6’’, 210 lbs // UConn

    Average: 34.92 Gap: 0.51 Standard Deviation: 5.25

37. Julian Strawther: SF // 6’7’’, 208 lbs // Gonzaga

    Average: 35.43 Gap: 0.27 Standard Deviation: 6.64

38. Oliver-Maxense Prosper: PF // 6’8’’, 220 lbs // Marquette

    Average: 37.58 Gap: 0.26 Standard Deviation: 9.46

39. Amari Bailey: PG // 6’4’’, 180 lbs // UCLA

    Average: 37.85 Gap: 0.40 Standard Deviation: 9.15

    Likely Second-Rounders

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40. Julian Phillips: SF // 6’7’’, 200 lbs // Tennessee

    Average: 38.25 Gap: 2.25 Standard Deviation: 5.38

41. Jordan Walsh: SF // 6’7’’, 205 lbs // Arkansas

    Average: 41.42 Gap: 0.30 Standard Deviation: 7.22

42. Jalen Wilson: PF // 6’7’’, 225 lbs // Kansas

    Average: 41.71 Gap: 1.21 Standard Deviation: 7.80

43. Ricky Council IV: SG // 6’6’’, 205 lbs // Arkansas

    Average: 42.92 Gap: 1.80 Standard Deviation: 10.21

44. Keyontae Johnson: SF // 6’5’’, 229 lbs // Kansas State

    Average: 44.73 Gap: 1.27 Standard Deviation: 11.77

45. Efe Abogidi: C // 6’10’’, 225 lbs // G-League Ignite

    Average: 46.00 Gap: 0.62 Standard Deviation: 18.38

46. Kobe Brown: PF // 6’8’’ // Missouri

    Average: 46.62 Gap: 0.58 Standard Deviation: 5.36

47. Tristan Vukcevic: PF // 6’10’’, 185 lbs // Serbia

    Average: 47.20 Gap: 0.71 Standard Deviation: 12.99

48. Ben Sheppard: SF // 6’6’’, 190 lbs // Belmont

    Average: 47.91 Gap: 2.49 Standard Deviation: 11.59

49. Seth Lundy: SG // 6’6’’, 217 lbs // Penn State

    Average: 50.40 Gap: 0.20 Standard Deviation: 7.06

50. Jaylen Clark: SG // 6’5’’, 210 lbs // UCLA

    Average: 51.25 Gap: 1.00 Standard Deviation: 8.01

51. Jordan Miller: SF // 6’7’’, 202 lbs // Miami

    Average: 52.25 Gap: 0.08 Standard Deviation: 4.20

    Potentially Undrafted

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52. Emoni Bates: SG // 6’9’’, 190 lbs // Eastern Michigan

    Average: 53.33 Gap: 0.27 Standard Deviation: 10.31

53. Isaiah Wong: PG // 6’2’’, 185 lbs // Miami

    Average: 53.60 Gap: 1.40 Standard Deviation: 11.87:

54. Mike Miles Jr: PG // 6’1’’, 195 lbs // TCU

    Average: 55.70 Gap: 0.97 Standard Deviation: 15.78

55. Chris Livingston: SF // 6’7’’, 210 lbs // Kentucky

    Average: 56.67 Gap: 0.11 Standard Deviation: 10.78

56. Adama Sanogo: C // 6’9’’, 240 lbs // UConn

    Average: 56.78 Gap: 0.25 Standard Deviation: 13.79

57. Mouhamed Gueye: PF // 7’0’’, 203 lbs // Washington State

    Average: 58.00 Gap: 1.22 Standard Deviation: 13.36

58. Adam Flagler: SG // 6’3’’, 180 lbs // Baylor

    Average: 58.25 Gap: 0.61 Standard Deviation: 9.56

59. Mojave King: SG // 6’5’’, 205 lbs // New Zealand

    Average: 58.86 Gap: 1.74 Standard Deviation: 10.56

60. Hunter Tyson: SF // 6’8’’, 215 lbs // Clemson

    Average: 60.60 Gap: 0.02 Standard Deviation: 10.67