The 5 Biggest Questions of the Stretch Run
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The All-Star break might be treated as the dividing line between the first and second halves of the NBA season, but it’s anything but. Every team has played between 53 and 56 games, which means we’re basically two-thirds through the season. Post All-Star break is officially the final act of the regular season, which means we’re barreling towards the playoffs. These are the five questions that will define the stretch run.
Will James Harden Propel the Cavaliers?
The Cleveland Cavaliers are all in. You simply don’t trade a 26-year-old two-time All-Star for a 36-year-old, regardless of how talented, if you aren’t. While the 2031 Cavaliers will probably wish they had Darius Garland, the 2025-26 Cavs are ecstatic to have James Harden.
It’s often forgotten, overlooked, shoved into a wooden box, and stored away in a government facility, but Harden is one of the greatest players in NBA history. You might scoff at such an assertion, but the man is ninth in career Value Over a Replacement Player (VORP) and 16th in career Win Shares (WS). And while he isn’t at his peak anymore, he’s still a damn good player. His current 4.7 Offensive Box Plus/Minus ranks 14th in the league and is in a virtual tie with Cade Cunningham.
The Cavaliers are going for it, right now, and the addition of Harden gives them the most upside in the Eastern Conference. The combination of Harden, Donovan Mitchell, Evan Mobley, and Jarrett Allen might not be the most seamless fit, but it packs the most talent into four roster spots in the conference. Mitchell has played at a borderline MVP-level, Harden deserves to make an All-NBA team, Mobley has struggled a bit this season, but is still the reigning Defensive Player of the Year, and Allen might average 20 points per game on 75% shooting if paired with Harden consistently enough.
While I question the logic of the Cavaliers so aggressively pushing their chips in the immediate, they did push their chips in for the best player to change teams at the trade deadline. Some have hypothesized that this is last ditch effort to keep Donovan Mitchell, but I think it’s simpler than that. For as good as Darius Garland has been in his career, he’s rarely healthy, and the season Harden is having right now would be the best of Garland’s career. The Cavaliers are chasing a title, not an extended run as a playoff team. That’s a commendable approach, and the only question left to answer is: will it propel them to the Finals?
Can the Nuggets Get Healthy?
Statistically, the Denver Nuggets might not look like a true contender. They’re 35-20, failing to hit Phil Jackson’s 40 wins before 20 losses contender threshold, and own a net rating of +4.1. That portends a really good team, but not a side capable of winning four playoff series. However, those season-long metrics fail to capture just how impressive the Nuggets have been, considering the context.
The Nuggets have been hit by a freight train of injuries this season. Through 55 games, their opening night starting five has played 50 (Jamal Murray), 39 (Nikola Jokic), 31 (Cameron Johnson), 23 (Aaron Gordon), and 19 (Christian Braun) games this season. In fact, that quintet hasn’t started a game together since November 7, when they pushed their record to 6-2 with a net rating of +12.6. In 159 minutes together, that five-man unit has a scorching +10.78 net rating, which makes their current situation all the more impressive.
On top of their starting five being a distant memory, Peyton Watson, who was in the midst of a breakout himself, is also out with an injury. Outside of Jamal Murray, every other member of the Nuggets’ top six has missed significant time this season. There’s a real chance that at peak capacity, the Nuggets are the best team in the league. Unfortunately, the chances of them getting and staying healthy feel low. Aaron Gordon is out for the third time in the past ten months with a hamstring injury, and the Nuggets just aren’t an elite side without him.
Outside of Jokic and his comical +15.3 on/off net rating, Gordon is the Nuggets’ second most impactful player by on/off at +12.4. Some of this has to do with him playing with Jokic so much, but it also has to do with how he papers over the Nuggets’ weaknesses and accentuates their strengths. His cutting is a weapon that makes Jokic impossible to double in the post; he has become a knockdown 3-point shooter, and his combination of strength and athleticism allows him to defend the perimeter and provide weakside rim protection.
Hopefully, the Nuggets can get and keep Gordon healthy through these playoffs because this is a true-blue contender that has been going through the season with a rotating cast of spare tires. The fact that they’re as good as they are is a testament to Jamal Murray’s excellence and Jokic’s game-breaking offense. However, to slay the Thunder god, they’ll need their full complement of warriors.
Will the 65-Game Rule Result in an Asterisk MVP*?
I was never a fan of the NBA’s 65-game rule, and this season might be the perfect storm. Based upon my understanding, the whole idea was that the 65-game rule to be eligible for end of the season awards was meant to act as an incentive for players to play more games.
First and foremost, this was always an incredibly stupid idea. Players weren’t missing 18 games a season due to “load management.” They were missing games due to injury and to combat fatigue, which led to injuries.
Second, the issue of voters selecting players who had played under 60 games to an All-NBA team could have been addressed without making an arbitrary games cutoff. The NBA simply could have said, “End-of-season awards are meant to honor the players who provided the most value across the entirety of the season, and should not be a list of who you believe to be the best players on an individual game basis.” Boom, with that single declaration, you tell voters that games played matter, without potentially having a completely shambolic MVP winner due to some arbitrary cutoff.
Why does this all matter? Well, Nikola Jokic has already missed 16 games, and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has missed seven games and is currently out with an injury. We are slaloming towards a scenario where neither Jokic nor Gilgeous-Alexander will be eligible for MVP, which is a problem when there is literally no argument for anyone else to win it. Just look at how far ahead they are in VORP and Win Shares.
It doesn’t take a math genius to understand that Jokic and Shai won’t need to hit 65 games played to be by far the two best players in the league. If the NBA is lucky, neither player will fall below the 65-game threshold. Regardless, this is an excellent example of why the 65-game rule should be shot into the sun.
Potential or Production in Rookie of the Year?
Rookie of the Year has been a two-horse race for months. Unless you’re a weirdo homer, Kon Knueppel and Cooper Flagg should take home 100% of the first and second place votes. This isn’t a slight at anyone else; it’s just the reality of the situation. However, who fetches those first-place votes will come down to the age-old rookie of the year battle between production and potential.
One of the things I loathe about NBA Rookie of the Year voting is that far too many voters are concerned with how their vote will age. The best recent example of this predicament was the 2022-23 vote when Paolo Banchero won the award. Banchero, hot off being the first overall pick, averaged 20 excruciatingly inefficient points and took home 98 out of 100 first-place votes. I was a big proponent of Walker Kessler winning the award, who landed the other two, despite finishing third, because he had actually been a productive NBA player as a rookie.
Obviously, points per game and offensive role aided Banchero come awards time, but so did the whole, “What will people think if Kessler wins the award over Banchero in five years?” Well, people should think that Walker Kessler, despite averaging 9.2 points per game, was an excellent player in his rookie year and actually helped the Jazz win games. If you don’t believe me, check the on/off splits. And to be honest, I don’t think voting for Kessler over Banchero has aged too poorly.
However, 2025-26 presents us with the same conundrum, just on steroids, insulin, and growth hormone. Kon Knueppel might be having the greatest rookie shooting season ever. I only say might because I haven’t checked the entirety of NBA history, but he’s almost certainly having the greatest shooting season for a one-and-done/high school prospect. He’s averaging 18.9 points per game on 43.1% 3-point shooting and a true shooting percentage (TS%) of 64.6%, and his offensive BPM of 3.2 ranks 25th in the league. 20-year-old rookies are basically never this productive, but what Cooper Flagg is doing is nearly as insane.
Flagg is averaging 20.4 points, 6.6 rebounds, 4.1 assists, 1.2 steals, and 0.8 blocks per game on a 25.2% usage and 56% TS%. His offensive BPM is only 0.6, still absurd for a guy who turned 19 in December, but his defensive contributions have him at a 1.3 BPM. When you factor in age, role, and supporting talent, Flagg is clearly the better long-term prospect, but Knueppel has been, unequivocally, the more productive player this season.
My guess is that Flagg will ultimately secure the award, as his spotty first 15 games are weighing down his full-season metrics, but it’s far from a lock. If Knueppel keeps scorching the nets like a Ball-rog, and the Hornets make the playoffs, he could see a groundswell of support. At the end of the day, you can’t go wrong selecting either of these two sensational rookies, but who wins the award will come down to where voters stand on the production vs potential debate.
Will Jayson Tatum Return, and How Will He Look?
Jayson Tatum is the boogeyman looming over the Eastern Conference. The Celtics, despite trading away Kristaps Porzingis and Jrue Holiday, losing Al Horford to free agency, and not receiving a second of action from Tatum, are 35-19 with the league’s third-best net rating at +7.2. While James Harden was the best player to move at the deadline, Tatum could be the best player to return for the stretch run.
The Celtics, even without Tatum, look like a contender, and with Tatum, they might just become the favorites in the East. While it’d be unfair to expect Tatum to instantly return as a top-15 player after such a long layoff, how good does he actually need to be to vault the Celtics over the Pistons, Knicks, and Cavaliers?
Of all the questions for the stretch run, this is the most unknowable. We have no idea if Tatum will even return. How he’ll look if he does. And most crucially, if his reintroduction will throw off the careful alchemy that has propelled these Celtics all season long. All I know is that if Tatum does suit up this season, the pit in the Eastern Conference’s stomach will be the size of James’ giant peach.
For any inquiries about work, discussion, and the like, you can email me at nevin.l.brown@gmail.com.