The Hornets Have Got Some Sting

How the Hornets are on the verge of crashing the playoff party

Of all the Bill Parcelisms that have permeated popular culture, “You are what your record says you are,” rings truest. Sports are about results, and your record is the ultimate tabulation. When the season ends, it doesn’t matter what you should have done; what matters is what you did. But sometimes, your record isn’t the whole story.

The Charlotte Hornets are their 19-28 record. They are 11th in the lowly Eastern Conference, and they are three and a half games out of the play-in. On the heels of a 19-63 season, that counts as a promising turnaround, but this is still a team that appears miles from contention. Yet, the Hornets own the seventh-best net rating in the Eastern Conference at +1.3, and their 117.8 offensive rating ranks third in the Conference and seventh in the league. They may be their record, but their story is far more interesting.

The Great Divergence

No team in the league has experienced a larger divergence between their record and their point differential than the Hornets. Based solely on point differential, you’d expect them to be 25-22 and fighting for a top-six seed in the East. Instead, they’re well outside the play-in, and it’s down to their outlier six-win gap between their Pythagorean win total and actual record. Not only is it the largest underperformance in the league, but the next closest teams on the negative side are at -3, with the Lakers +5 representing the largest overperformance. In another world, the Hornets have had the Lakers’ luck and are 30-17. Imagine what their record would say about them then.

That being said, while point differential, and by extension net rating, is a better predictor of future performance than win-loss record, that doesn’t mean it’s infallible. The Hornets have tallied eight games where they’ve posted a net rating above +23, compared to just three of -23 or lower. High-level teams absolutely blow the doors off the opposition, but you don’t get to take the previous game’s points with you. If you cap the Hornets’ victories and defeats at plus or minus 15, their net rating drops from +1.3 to -0.6. This explains some of the divergence between their Pythagorean and actual records. Regardless of what the Hornets’ net rating should be, the turnaround they’re in the midst of is strikingly impressive.

Last season, the Hornets finished with both the third fewest wins (19) and the third lowest net rating (-9.3) in the league, which made them a pretty compelling candidate for the third worst team in the association. Despite so dramatically underperforming their point differential, the Hornets, along with the Sixers, are the only teams that have already equaled or surpassed their 2024-25 win total, and they’ve experienced, by far, the largest positive swings in season to season offensive and net rating.

2024-25 to 2025-26 ORtg & Net Rtg Chance

Stats as of Monday, January 26th

How the Hornets Kicked The Net

The good news is that how the Hornets orchestrated this turnaround is no mystery. Last season, the Hornets only got 47 games out of LaMelo Ball, 27 from Brandon Miller, and zero courtesy of Kon Knueppel, since, you know, he was in college. This season, through 47 games, they’ve already had Ball suit up for 37 games, Miller for 30, and Knueppel for 46. Having your best players play is generally viewed as an effective basketball tactic, and the Hornets have managed just that. However, the real story is how lethal they’ve been with this trio on the court.

In the 22 games Ball, Miller, and Knueppel have started together, the Hornets are 15-7, and their underlying metrics support this as one of the league’s more impressive cores. In 338 minutes on the court together, the trio has blitzed opponents to a +8.87 net rating and posted a truly ridiculous offensive rating of 130.9, per PBPStats. Among all three-man lineups to have played over 250 minutes together, their offensive rating ranks 12th, and the two best three-man lineups in the entire league by net rating are Ball, Knueppel, and Moussa Diabate (+22.7), and Ball, Diabate, and Miller (+21.1), according to NBA.com.

While it has only been 180 minutes, the quartet of Diabate, Miller, Ball, and Knueppel has a net rating of +25.8 and an offensive rating of 138.9. Which, you guessed it, are both first among four-man lineups to eclipse 150 minutes together. It goes without saying that these are incredibly positive developments for a franchise that won 27, 21, and 19 games over the preceding three seasons.

Now, whenever offensive production and net rating are this extreme, there is a bit of positive variance at play. Diabate, Miller, Ball, and Knueppel aren’t secretly Steph Curry, Draymond Green, Klay Thompson, and Kevin Durant circa 2017, but you also can’t just luck your way to that level of dominance, even in a small sample. The Hornets have something cooking, and with a few small tweaks, there might be more to come.

Late Game Growing Pains

For as good as the Hornets have been, three things have held them back– the fourth quarter, their defense, and Miles Bridges. It should come as no surprise that the team that has underperformed its point differential the most has also collapsed in fourth quarters. While the Hornets have struggled a tad to start games, their drop-off in the fourth is incredibly stark.

Prior to the fourth quarter, the Hornets have resembled a no-doubt playoff team. A net rating of +3.3 would be enough to rank ninth in the league and fourth in the Eastern Conference, and an offensive rating of 118.6 would have them sandwiched between the Knicks and Rockets for fourth. Unfortunately, games are 48 minutes, and the Hornets seem to be on a per-36-minute schedule, and it’s all because their potent offense loses its sting.

Just about anyway you slice it, the Hornets’ offense takes a step back in the fourth quarter. They shoot worse and less frequently from three, see their 2-point conversion fall off a cliff, collect fewer offensive rebounds, and turn the ball over a bit more. On its own, none of these individual downticks is fatal, but collectively they conspire to sink the offense.

These issues are even more pronounced in the clutch, where they’ve posted a net rating of -7 and an offensive rating of 104.5. While that’s only accounted for an estimated 152.6 possessions, it does raise questions about the Hornets’ ability to generate offense against a locked-in defense. Their core trio of LaMelo Ball, Brandon Miller, and Kon Knueppel are all wildly talented players, but none of them are particularly good at creating advantages against one-on-one matchups.

They’re definitely due for some positive 3-point shooting regression, but without real development, their fourth-quarter fortunes could be tied to the whims of 3-point variance. Fortunately, Ball, Miller, and Knueppel are all incredibly young, and due to injuries, Ball has lost out on a ton of late-game on-ball reps in his career. However, an easy, immediate remedy to some of their woes might be not playing Sion James more fourth-quarter minutes per game than Colin Sexton.

Defensive Frailty

Defensively, the Hornets have a long way to go to become a contender. For as deadly as their core trio has been offensively, they’ve been abysmal on defense. With Ball, Knueppel, and Miller on the court, the Hornets have a defensive rating of 122.01, which is a little worse than what the 29th-ranked Washington Wizards have mustered.

The good news is that while none of Ball, Knueppel, and Miller projects to be a plus defender, they all possess positional size and versatility. Simply surrounding them with a solid rim protector and a point of attack defender should do wonders for their defense, and their offensive skill sets allow them to accommodate just about anyone who fits those descriptions. A rim-protecting, rim-running center like Mark Williams would thrive next to LaMelo Ball, while a Davion Mitchell on-ball hound type could be a pest on defense and not be needed to create much on offense. The Hornets may not currently have the raw ingredients to build a championship-level defense, but their core players should allow them to add the most crucial defensive building blocks without subtracting from their burgeoning offense.

Burning Bridges

Scapegoating individuals for a collective failure is a tradition that dates back to the dawn of man. Remember how that first mammoth hunt was ruined because Grud couldn’t keep his mouth shut? Well, the Hornets’ scapegoat is none other than Miles Bridges.

No player has played more minutes this season for the Hornets than Bridges. His 1,492 total minutes in the Hornets teal blue just edges Kon Knueppel’s 1469 for the team lead. Unfortunately, the Hornets have been far worse with Bridges on the court.

In the 1492 minutes Bridges has been on the court, the Hornets have a net rating of -1.66, and in the 779 minutes he has ridden the pine, their net rating jumps to 6.6. Basically, the Hornets go from being the Grizzlies with Bridges to the Celtics without him. So, what exactly is the issue?

Offensively, Bridges’ presence has virtually no impact on their bottom line. They go from a 117.89 offensive rating with him to a 117.85 without him. To put how minuscule a swing that is, over the course of 10,000 possessions, it would amount to four extra points, or one extra point per 2,500 possessions. Unfortunately, the defense falls off a cliff with him on the court. The Hornets’ defensive rating balloons from 111.24 to 119.55, which amounts to 831 more points over the course of 10,000 possessions.

Some of their defensive decline is due to poor opponent shooting variance, but most of it is due to his inability to defend the perimeter. A solid proxy for perimeter defense is opponent at rim shot frequency, particularly when comparing players on the same team. In this area, Bridges has been an absolute disaster, and it has cost the Hornets’ games.

If Bridges was killing it on offense, you could tolerate his defensive limitations. However, he’s only averaging 18.5 points per game on a true shooting percentage of 56.4%. Those are fine figures, but they’re very replaceable, and honestly, more opportunities for Ball, Miller, and Knueppel would probably lead to better offensive results.

The Hornets don’t need to trade Bridges right away, but he’ll be on a $22.8 million expiring contract in the summer, and it might behoove them to use his salary as an avenue to add a player who accentuates their core.

Calling the Hornets a sleeping giant is probably a stretch, but this is very much a playoff team hiding in plain sight. It wouldn’t surprise me one bit if they got on a roll and supplanted one of Atlanta or Chicago for a play-in spot. They’ve played better than their record, and still have almost half a season to make up for lost time. Regardless of where the Hornets are at season’s end, with a few tweaks, a dash of internal development, and a dollop of luck, they should be a playoff team in 2026-27.

For any inquiries about work, discussion, and the like, you can email me at nevin.l.brown@gmail.com.