The Incredible Basketball Immortality of LeBron James
How LeBron James has and hasn’t defied the aging curve
On an early February night, when the malaise of the season is supposed to be at its height, LeBron James, like he has so many times, made history. At 40 years old and 39 days, James’ 42 points, 17 rebounds, and eight assists performance earned him the distinction as the oldest player to record a 40-point game. In a career full of trivia nuggets, James holding the record for the youngest and oldest 40-point games is perhaps the most telling. No one has ever been this good for this long, and he looks like he isn’t slowing down, even if he is.
The old moniker, “Father Time is undefeated,” is as true as they come. It’s a simple reminder of our eventual mortality and rapid physical decline. One moment we’re young and full of vitality, and in a blink, we descend into a jumbled mess of aches, pains, and a longing for what we once were. This is what makes James such a marvel. It’s not that he has staved off these natural processes, he hasn’t, it’s that he has been able to traverse them with an uncanny grace.
The 2024-25 season is James’ 22nd season of professional basketball. His 24.5 points per game and 5.8 box plus/minus (BPM) are his worst figures since his rookie season, but it still leaves him as one of the game’s elite. That 5.8 BPM is tied for sixth in the NBA, and he has been in vintage form since mid-December. Following a two-point loss to the Atlanta Hawks on December 6, a game in which he played over 43 minutes, James took the Lakers’ next two games off that bookend the league’s brief hiatus for the In-Season Tournament Finals. All told, James got eight consecutive days off, and he looks like a man reborn.
In the 23 games since his mid-December refresh, James is averaging 25.9 points, 9.0 assists, and 7.6 rebounds as the Lakers have gone 17-6. His BPM over that span has been a gaudy 7.6*, a figure that would rank fourth on the season, and his offensive BPM has been 6.3*, that figure would rank third. If James can keep this up, he’ll end the season with the highest BPM for a player in their age 40 season or later, eclipsing the 5.0 figure John Stockton managed in 2002-03.
*These figures are his average BPM and OBPM based on his single-game figures and not weighted by minute totals. While not absolutely correct figures, they should be incredibly close.
What James is doing at this stage of his career is unprecedented. While Stockton was wildly effective at the end of his career, he never posted a usage rate above 21% and was below 20% from age 37 on. James has never had a usage below 28.2%, coming in his rookie season, and is at 30.6% this season. Even as a geriatric hooper, he is still shouldering a massive offensive load, is easily a top-ten player, and is making a fantastic argument that he’s still in the top five. All of this sounds like he’s defying the aging curve, but Lebron was once so much more.
One of the reasons LeBron’s aging curve feels so non-existent is actually a product of his longevity. When he entered the league in 2003-04, the average pace of a game was 90.1 possessions and the average offensive rating was 102.9 points. Fast forward 22 seasons, and those figures are 99 and 113.4. Generally speaking, pace and offensive efficiency have crept up as LeBron has aged, and they accelerated dramatically in his 30s.
The league’s increase in pace and efficiency, especially post-2015 (LeBron’s age-30 season), has allowed his basic box score stats to keep pace with his historic norms. Bracketing LeBron’s career into four ranges, 19 to 25, 26 to 30, 31 to 35, and 36 to 40, we can see just how absurdly consistent his box score production has been.
If you’re going just based on the back of the basketball card stats, you’d swear LeBron was as good as ever. However, while his counting stats have remained stable, his BPM was significantly better in his 20s than it has been in his 30s. Using offensive rating as a solid catch-all for his box score production, we can clearly see how LeBron’s production, relative to the league average, has actually followed a normal aging curve.
LeBron’s offensive rating holding relatively steady since 2014-15 is impressive considering his age and usage, but the gap between him and average has closed considerably. The league's changing offensive environment gives him the appearance of defying decline, but in reality, he’s benefitting from a rising tide. A similar trend emerges when you look at his BPM throughout the years.
In some respects, LeBron is just like us. He peaked in his 20s, held on in his early 30s, and has seen a steady decline as he approaches and then hits 40. While this general trend sounds like a normal aging curve, he has done an incredible job muting its effects. The incredibly gradual decline he has experienced in his 30s has only been maintained by a few select greats. The player with the most similar post-30 decline is John Stockton, which is highly informative to one of James’ secrets to longevity.
Stockton’s reputation in recent years has taken a well-deserved hit for being an anti-vax quack, but the dude was an absolute basketball savant. He’s the all-time leader in assists and steals and it’s highly unlikely anyone seriously approaches those records. Unsurprisingly, the two things that age best are size and smarts. While Stockton was diminutive, his ability to contribute through passing allowed him to be an elite contributor his entire career. LeBron, despite only winning one assist title, is one of the greatest passers and basketball minds. Throw in the fact that he is 6’9, and you have the perfect recipe for a player to age gracefully.
The dirty truth about how LeBron is still doing this at age 40 is simple. The best way to age gracefully is to be ungodly good in your prime. Summit a tall enough mountain and you’ll have more runway before you hit sea level. LeBron is a shell of himself, but a shell of the best player of his era is still one of the best players in the league a decade later. Remember, his BPM is 5.8 right now. It was 13.2 in 2008-09 and 11.7 in 2012-13. He lost 7.4 BPM from his peak. That would rank fourth in the league this season. Yes, peak LeBron was worth two top-five players, which is why he can be one of the best players in the league while being half the player he used to be.
It is incredible what LeBron is doing at age 40. No one should be capable of playing at this level after this many miles. Stockton, based on age, is close, but he played nowhere near the total possessions, nor did he have to shoulder such a massive scoring load. However, I don’t want LeBron’s longevity to obscure his incredible peak because they’re inextricably intertwined. No one actually beats Father Time. All you can do is build a citadel capable of weathering the longest of sieges and maintain it with precision. Eventually, all fortresses fall. LeBron has done just that, but he is a marvel not because he defied the aging process, but because he was the greatest player we’ve ever seen.
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