The Knicks have KAT scratch fever
How the Knicks are reaping the reward and punishment of relying on Karl-Anthony Towns
The New York Knicks have had a busy 12 months. First, they traded for OG Anunoby and signed him to a massive new deal, then they traded five first-round picks for Mikal Bridges, and, to top it off, they traded Julius Randle, Donte DiVincenzo, and a first-round pick for Karl-Anthony Towns. All the roster rigamarole was meant to build a contender to capitalize on Jalen Brunson’s prime and surprisingly team-friendly extension, but they’ve inadvertently become Karl-Anthony Towns’ team, which isn’t necessarily a bad thing.
In many respects, the Karl-Anthony Towns experience has gone exactly as you would have expected. He’s averaging 24.9 points and 12.3 rebounds per game on an excellent 60.7% effective field goal percentage, and his introduction has propelled the Knicks’ offense into the elite. Their 120.1 offensive rating ranks second overall and is a significant boost from their 118.2 figure last season. However, like an invasive species of cat, there have been unintended consequences.
The Knicks’ defense has taken a significant step back. In 2023-24, they finished 10th in defensive rating at 113.4 but have seen that figure slip to 23rd and 116.7. In the aggregate, owning a +3.4 net rating while facing the eighth-strongest strength of schedule is admirable, but the Knicks traded for Towns to compete for a title, not to be roughly as good as they were the season before.
The dilemma the Knicks face is the same one the Timberwolves endured for years. Towns’ offensive prowess from the center position is transformative, but so are his defensive flaws. Through nine games, Towns is only defending 4.9 shots per game that are six feet and closer to the basket, a figure which ranks outside of the top 50, and is allowing opponents to shoot 79.5% on those attempts per NBA tracking stats. According to PBP Stats, the Knicks, with Towns on the court, allow opponents to finish 73.8% of their rim attempts, with that figure dropping to 62.7% when he’s on the bench. While it’s unlikely teams will convert at such an incredible rate the rest of the way, the utter lack of defended shots and inability to alter them puts an exceptionally low ceiling on the Knicks’ defense with Towns on the court.
Despite the Knicks’ offensive rating clocking in at 124.8 with Towns, their net rating with him on the court is only +1.9 because their defense is giving up a cool 122.8 points per 100 possessions. For as good as the Knicks’ offense has been with Towns, his defensive limitations have led to units without him being significantly better.
*via PBPStats.com
A significant factor in Towns’ poor on/off defensive metrics is fortunate opponent 3-point shooting. When he is on the bench opponents have shot 30.25% from three and posted a 105.2 defensive rating. However, regression to the mean won’t suddenly close the 17.6-point gap as opponents shooting 60.9% on twos when he’s on the court has been the real killer. The defensive concerns with Towns aren’t going to change. He has long established himself as a poor interior defender, and even though the Knicks’ defense is likely to improve with him on the court just due to regression, this will be a below-average unit with him patrolling the paint like a seven-foot Paul Blart. However, the offensive side of the equation shows an intriguing amount of upside.
A striking detail in the on/off data is the Knicks’ field goal percentages are almost unchanged regardless if Towns is on the court, yet they’re scoring 12.01 more points per 100 possessions with him. Why the Knicks’ offense is better with Towns is no mystery. They’re absolutely killing the possession battle. According to PBPStats, Towns improves their offensive rebound percentage from 23.8% to 28.9%, their second chance efficiency from 120.00 to 154.9, and their turnovers per 100 possessions drops from 16.5 to 11.6. The Knicks under Tom Thibodeau have long lived by the mantra, “If you can’t outshoot ‘em [efficiency], outshoot ‘em [volume],” but the introduction of Towns was supposed to help them actually outshoot ‘em.
The benefits of playing an elite 3-point shooter at center are well understood. It juices your 3-point efficiency by having more credible shooters, but it also drags opposing rim protectors out to the perimeter and improves production within the arc. However, the benefits of Towns’ spacing have been a mixed bag. Thus far, the Knicks have attempted 29.2% of their field goals at the rim with Towns on the court compared to 22.2% when he’s on the bench, but their efficiency actually decreases from 68.6% to 64% at the rim. When you factor in the offensive rebounding advantage with Towns, it’s fair to question if his 3-point gravity is providing any real benefit.
Towns’ supporters will point to his astronomical 53.7% 3-point shooting, but his detractors will highlight his measly 4.6 attempts per game. In many respects, the Knicks 3-point shooting mirrors Towns’ own production. Elite efficiency (39.5%, 4th) paired with middling volume (36.0 attempts per 100 possessions, 18th). If the Knicks aren’t going to be an average defense with Towns on the court, they need to be beyond elite on offense with him if they want to have any chance to compete for a title.
One of the issues the Knicks have run into is Towns getting baited into post-ups when teams guard him with wings. In the three games where Towns’ primary defenders were non-centers, he failed to score 20 points and took exactly two 3-pointers in each of those contests. The opposition's game plan was simple. Stick a center on Josh Hart and live with Towns slowly trying to take advantage of a size mismatch. It didn’t destroy their offense, but it nullified the spacing advantage he brings.
The remedies for this could be as simple as telling Towns to bomb even more aggressively when he has a size advantage, stagger his and Hart’s minutes, have Hart and Towns engage in a two-man game, or run off-ball actions for Towns on the perimeter. It’s a scary thought, but the Knicks’ offense, from a shot-making perspective, hasn’t really popped with Towns yet, and that was the exact reason he was brought in.
For better and for worse, the Knicks are now Karl-Anthony Town’s team. They exemplify all his strengths and weaknesses, and while his troubles on the defensive end are unlikely to be solved, it remains apparent they’re only scratching the surface of what his offensive impact can be. If Towns can lean into being a floor spacer who attacks closeouts, crashes the boards, and occasionally operates in the post, the Knicks could sport the league’s best offense. And they might just have to if they want to get where they want.
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