The Magic, Tricked

Why the Magic are so much worse with Paolo Banchero, and so much better with Franz Wagner

This is supposed to be the year the Magic make the leap from plucky upstarts to burgeoning power. Their rebuild began with the selections of Jalen Suggs and Franz Wagner in 2021 and was turbocharged when they selected Paolo Banchero first overall in 2022. In quick succession, they established themselves as a solid playoff team through sheer defensive will and the developing offensive talents of Banchero and Wagner. Then, over the summer, the Magic broke the draft capital bank to acquire Desmond Bane to support their two young stars. The plan was simple. Banchero would lead the offense. Wagner and Bane would support. And the rest of the roster would defend. But their plan had one fatal flaw: the head of their snake has never been potent.

Paolo Banchero has the look of a model franchise pillar. He was a top high school recruit, went to a blueblood program, dominated the college ranks, was selected first overall, won Rookie of the Year, and then made an All-Star team in his second year. If it weren’t for an oblique injury that cost him nearly half of last season, his 25.9 points per game would have almost assuredly landed him All-NBA honors. This combination of pedigree and production led the Magic to hand him a rookie-scale max extension with every possible player concession imaginable.

If you simply look at Banchero’s statistics, it’s hard to argue he’s anything other than a star. Over his first three seasons, he averaged 22.4 points, 7.1 rebounds, and 4.6 assists per game while leading the Magic to two consecutive playoff appearances. On top of that, he has largely shown up for the Magic in the playoffs, averaging 28.0 points, 8.5 rebounds, and 4.1 assists per game. The rudimentary analysis of Banchero’s impact is as follows: he’s the best player on a team that wins games; therefore, he’s a good player. Yet, all of his statistical production has been for naught on the scoreboard.

Paolo Banchero On-Court and On/Off Net Rating

There’s a legitimate case that the Magic have risen in spite of Banchero, not because of him. And when you look at his impact on team performance compared to Franz Wagner, it creates a confounding narrative.

Franz Wagner On-Court and On/Off Net Rating

What makes this juxtaposition so staggering is that Banchero and Wagner share the court all the time. Over the past three seasons (2022-23 to 2024-25), Wagner and Banchero have been on the court together for 4,383 minutes and produced a net rating of +1.42. However, in the 2,587 minutes Wagner has been on the court without Banchero, the Magic own a net rating of +7.06, and in the 2,427 minutes Banchero has been on the court without Wagner, the Magic have a net rating of -7.78. Functionally, the Magic have had three different teams. A mediocre team with Banchero and Wagner, a world beater with Wagner, and a lottery-bound sad sack with Banchero. No matter how you slice it, the Magic have basically been better at everything with Wagner on the court, except for 3-point shooting, which only makes his advantage all the more impressive.

Wagner & Banchero On/Off Court Data

Now, on-court and on/off data can be noisy season to season, and since we’re only looking at a three-season sample, one of which was truncated, there’s a chance a single season is skewing the data. Unfortunately, that’s not the case. Year in and year out, the Magic score and defend better with Wagner minus Banchero.

Simply saying the Magic are way worse with Paolo Banchero and way better with Franz Wagner is great and all, but it’s far less interesting as to why. From a statistical production standpoint, Banchero and Wagner aren’t all that dissimilar. They’re both below-average 3-point shooters on relatively modest volume, and while Banchero is less efficient as a scorer and passer, he also shoulders a heavier usage. When you look at metrics like box plus/minus over the past three seasons, Banchero and Wagner’s offensive contributions look relatively similar, with Banchero coming in at 1.1 and Wagner at 1.2. If box score statistics don’t provide a smoking gun, then it must be their style of play that’s leading to the great divergence.

Shot charts have long been viewed as a map to locate shooting efficiency, and while that’s true, they can also tell us a lot about how an individual player is stressing a defense. For instance, we know that taking a lot of shots from beyond the arc helps space the floor, and conversely, taking shots closer to the rim compresses a defense. However, shots in the mid-range do neither. Simply put, it’s much easier for a team to defend a pass out of the mid-range because the defense, by being in the middle of the court, is closer to both the basket and the 3-point line. Over the past three seasons, 27.5% of Bachero’s field goal attempts have come in the mid-range (ten feet to the 3-point line), compared to 9.8% for Wagner. Since Banchero isn’t an elite jump shooter or passer out of these positions, a disproportionate amount of his offense has led to inefficient shots for himself and teammates.

Paolo Banchero v Franz Wagner 2024-25 Shot Locations

Image from Perthirtysix.com

Per PBP Stats, the Magic’s shot quality has declined from 53.2% with Banchero on the court to 53% when he sits over the past three seasons. Conversely, with Wagner on the court, the Magic’s shot quality improves to 53.3% compared to 52.8% when he’s on the bench. When you factor in how much they share the court, it’s clear Wagner has a significant positive impact on the Magic’s overall shot diet. This is most clear in rim frequency. Wagner’s presence raises the Magic’s rim attempt frequency from 28.2% to 33.2%, a massive swing considering the value of rim attempts, while Banchero sees the Magic’s rim frequency drop from 31.4% to 31% with him on the court.

Now, there’s no skill-based reason Banchero should constantly be settling for mid-range jumpers while Wagner is able to more consistently get to the basket. Both Banchero and Wagner are huge ball handlers, but they differ tremendously in their pace of play. Last season, out of 248 players who played at least 25 games and averaged over 20 minutes, Banchero’s average speed on offense of 4.31 MPH ranked 204th, while Wagner’s 4.84 MPH ranked 34th. A higher or lower average offensive speed doesn’t have any real connection to effectiveness, but when you watch how the pair play on offense, you can readily see its impact. Wagner is decisive and direct off the dribble, while Banchero tends to be more lateral and probing.

Banchero’s style of play looks more dynamic, but his willingness and/or ability to actually gain ground on his opponent, and thus create advantages, leaves a lot to be desired. Some of it is a lack of burst, but often, he simply forgoes the opportunity to keep driving ahead and settles for an inefficient shot or dribble. Meanwhile, Wagner has an uncanny ability to just keep moving forward, and he uses hesitation dribbles to great effect to continue an advance to the rim. It doesn’t look as silky or skilled, but Wagner’s economy of movement is far more efficient and effective.

This dynamic of aesthetics versus effectiveness reminds me of Premier League debates over Mohamed Salah and Eden Hazard. Some people still swear Hazard was a better player, despite Salah having had a far more productive career. Hazard was clearly an exceptional player, but he also had an all-time “the streets will remember” dribbling package. He’d torment and humiliate defenders to demonstrate his technical mastery. Meanwhile, Salah has made a living being direct and, considering his status as an all-time winger, was never one to dazzle with a fancy dribble.

Defensively, it isn’t a surprise that the Magic have been better with Wagner than Banchero. Wagner is a 6’10 forward who can credibly defend both wing positions, while Banchero is a power forward who isn’t a plus on the perimeter or interior. Wagner gives the Magic the option of playing large with him at small forward or quick with him at power forward. This versatility makes it much easier to forge defensively stout lineups, and it’s why the Magic have been nearly four points per 100 possessions better with him on defense.

The Magic are in a predicament. Banchero is the face of their franchise, is viewed as their offensive star, and his box score statistics look awfully similar to the player he is supposed to be, but all of the team performance and efficiency data suggest he is far from it. Meanwhile, Wagner has been pigeonholed as the quintessential second star, but his on-court impact has him as clearly the Magic’s best player. If the Magic want to capitalize on the instability in the Eastern Conference this season, they may need to rethink their pecking order. For as talented as Banchero is, Wagner has proven to be the far more effective player.

For any inquiries about work, discussion, and the like, you can email me at nevin.l.brown@gmail.com.