The Many Futures of Tari Eason
Eason had a superlative rookie season that slipped through the cracks
Imagine a lump of clay. Not so impressive? Now imagine a lump of clay glistening in the augmenting powers of water. It might be a lump of special dirt, but that dirt has all the potential of imagination. NBA prospects are like lumps of clay. Some enter the league fully formed and in need of a kiln. And others still haven’t even been bathed in the magic of water. However, there are those special few who you can already see a shape taking form but still have so much more to work with. That’s Tari Eason.
If you’re unfamiliar with Tari Eason, you won’t be for long, even if you stop reading right at this very moment. Eason was selected with the 17th pick in the 2022 draft by the Houston Rockets after a standout season at LSU. Toiling in relative obscurity, he came off the bench for most of his rookie season as the Rockets did their absolute best to land the first overall pick. These situations demand a player force their way into the conversation, and Eason did exactly that.
Eason played 82 games, averaged 21.5 minutes per game, and produced steal and block percentages of 2.6% and an offensive rebounding percentage of 12%. Only two other players met those criteria, Andre Drummond and Paul Reed. But they’re backup centers, making one 3-pointer between them, while Eason is a power forward/small forward who hit nearly 35% of his threes. Steal percentage and offensive rebound percentage don’t win players awards, but they win teams' games, and nearly every player to reach those marks this young went on to have stellar careers.
Since the mid-1970s, 21 players have combined a steal and block percentage of greater than 2% with an offensive rebound percentage greater than 10% in one of their age 18-22 seasons. The list includes Charles Barkley, Shawn Kemp, Vlade Divac, Chris Webber, Tracy McGrady, Paul Millsap, Joakim Noah, Demarcus Cousins, Anthony Davis, Andre Drummond, Clint Capela, Nikola Jokic, and now Tari Eason. The less heralded players are Lonnie Shelton, Cedric Maxwell, Nene, Tyrus Thomas, Derrick Favors, Jusuf Nurkic, Jarred Vanderbilt, and Usman Garuba.
Outside of Tyrus Thomas and Usman Garuba, who is still on his own rookie contract, each one of these players became starting caliber players and enjoyed long productive careers. However, there is something that makes Eason incredibly unique. He’s not exclusively camped near the rim, which makes his development so exciting.
The best modern comps for Eason, based on his rookie season, are Jarred Vanderbilt and Paul Millsap. Millsap, even as a four-time All-Star, was criminally underrated throughout his career. He averaged 16.8 points, 8.2 rebounds, 1.6 steals, and 1.1 blocks per game over his six-season peak, and even that undersells him. His 3.2 BPM (1.6 offensive BPM and 1.6 defensive BPM) over that stretch sold him as a top-30 player and one of the best two-way players in the league.
Vanderbilt, while not as good as Millsap, has become one of the league’s best defenders. His defensive BPM of 1.3 over the past three seasons has him pegged as a top-20 defensive contributor. If he could ever hit the 34.3% of 3-pointers that Eason converted as a rookie, he’d be one of the most valuable role players in the league. While a Vanderbilt-like career as a defensive wrecker and rebound machine looks like Eason’s floor as a prospect, I don’t think Millsap represents his ceiling. I think Millsap is his median outcome.
Eason and Millsap’s rookie seasons, on a per-100-possession basis, look incredibly similar.
There are a few notable differences in their per-100 statistics, but when their respective eras and the quality of their teammates are factored in, the rookie version of Tari Eason and Paul Milsap are shockingly similar. First, Milsap’s edge in blocks is partially a product of mid-2000s basketball. Modern power forwards have seen their block rates decline as they’ve become more perimeter-oriented to defend the league’s ever-expanding appetite for 3-pointers. Similarly, Milsap’s edge in rebounds is aided by teams shooting 45.8% from the floor, while the league average field goal percentage in 2022-23 was 47.5%.
The next crucial detail is the quality of their team. The 2006-07 Utah Jazz went 51-31 and had prime Deron Williams, Carlos Boozer, Mehmet Okur, and Andrei Kirilenko. Milsap’s edge in shooting efficiency, free throw attempt rate, and defensive rating is in no small part a result of playing with multiple All-Star caliber players. On the other hand, Eason played for the 22-60 Rockets, who had the league’s smallest active payroll by a mile and had no one near the All-Star conversation.
Milsap’s 2-point efficiency edge is also a bit of a mirage. 66% of his shots came within 0-3 feet from the basket, while Eason’s was only 43.3%, which also aided his free throw generation. In fact, Eason had slightly better efficiency than Milsap on those shots, converting 61.9% compared to 61.1%. Throw in Milsap being assisted on 60.1% of his 2-point field goals, compared to Eason at 47.3%, and his significant edge in efficiency is more a product of circumstances than talent.
Tari Eason isn’t destined to become Paul Milsap. But his rookie season indicates that a Milsap-like career wouldn’t be a surprise, and having Jarred Vanderbilt as a fallback is extremely encouraging. However, floors and median outcomes are the least fun part about prospects, even if they’re the most likely. The fun question is: what is Eason’s ceiling?
Eason’s offensive game is seasons away from being impactful on its own. He still needs seasons of refinement to be an on-ball creator, but he should see his efficiency tick up with a better-supporting cast. While I wouldn’t currently project Eason to become a dominant on-ball player, he certainly has the physical tools to go that route, and he has shown enough supporting skills to be a highly effective third or fourth option on offense. However, I do think Eason has a chance to be a star-level performer through his incredible defensive playmaking, bringing us back to the 2006-07 Utah Jazz and Andrei Kirilenko.
If Paul Milsap is criminally underrated, then the degree to which Andrei Kirilenko is underrated ought to be tried at Nuremberg. Kirilenko made one All-Star team in his career, but from 2002-03 to 2009-10, he finished in the top 10 for BPM five times, and in 2004-05, he finished with a BPM of 9.2 but missed qualifying for the leaderboard having only played 41 games. He has the 27th-highest BPM in NBA history (in a virtual tie with Damian Lillard) and the 57th-highest career VORP in a modest 797 career games. For his career, Kirilenko’s teams were +5.9 points per 100 possessions better with him on the court. He wasn’t just good. He was an all-around force who should have made multiple All-NBA teams.
Kirilenko’s jack of all trades, master of none bit on offense, was largely overlooked because he was never near the top of the leaderboards in any single category. On top of Kirilenko’s offensive contributions going unappreciated, he was maybe the greatest defender of his generation. His career block percentage of 4.99% is 17th all-time, the highest for a small forward, and his career steal percentage of 2.44% ranks 91st. For reference, Hakeem Olajuwon’s career block percentage is 15th at 5.39%, and his steal percentage is 96th at 2.43%.
Kirilenko was a superstar. His all-encompassing defensive exploits should have earned him at least one Defensive Player of the Year award, and unlike many great defensive players, he was a plus offensive contributor at his peak. If Kirilenko played in the era of catch-all metrics, his excellence wouldn’t have slipped by unassumingly. And if there is one player capable of reaching the defensive heights of Kirlenko, it’s Tari Eason.
The list of non-centers to post a block percentage and steal percentage above 2.5% last season starts with Alex Caruso and ends with Tari Eason. Caruso is one of the premier defenders in the world and had maybe the greatest modern perimeter defensive season ever, and Eason was a rookie on a horrible defensive team. Even in less-than-ideal circumstances, Eason’s defensive impact was immense. The Rockets went from a 122.86 defensive rating with Eason on the bench to a far more respectable 115.83 with him on the court. With the Rockets’ offseason additions of head coach Ime Udoka, who turned the Celtics into a defensive juggernaut, Fred VanVleet, one of the better defensive point guards, and Dillon Brooks, maybe the best on-ball wing defender in the league, Eason finally has the infrastructure to allow his game-changing defense to show up in a meaningful way.
In the NBA, fractions of a second are the difference between an open shot and a block, a completed pass and a steal, and a good defense and laughable. Even with time against him, Eason was a menace. Now, with more time than ever, there’s every reason to believe he could go to another level. While the changes in NBA geometry make it unlikely that Eason becomes the shot blocker Kirilenko developed into on a statistical level, he has all the ingredients to become his spiritual successor.
Eason has massive hands, good length, incredible strength, an undeniable motor, and a prescient understanding of where the ball is. The best defenses in the league are usually anchored by a rim-deterring center or an off-ball roamer capable of making the weakside seem like a cruel joke (or you’re the Bucks and have both). Eason doesn’t fit nicely in either of those categories, but he could prove to be something new altogether. As the game becomes more and more perimeter-oriented, Eason could become the off-ball roamer that wrecks the game from the perimeter through steals, blocked jumpers, and an occasional foray into rim protection. It’s not so much Kirilenko-lite, but rather Kirilenko 2.0.2.0.
Offensively, Eason has one area where he lags significantly behind Kirilenko, free throw generation. As a rookie, Kirilenko had a free-throw attempt rate that was double the league average, and he finished his career at 81% better than the league average. Meanwhile, Eason clocked in at 18% below the league average. Kirilenko had the benefit of starting his career next to John Stockton and Karl Malone, but it’s an area where Eason needs to see tremendous growth to reach his offensive ceiling. However, Eason has an early edge in 3-point shooting and is already one of the best offensive rebounders in the league. According to NBA Shot Chart’s regularized adjusted rebound rate, Eason was the league’s second most impactful rebounder, behind legendary board bully Steven Adams, and the absolute best offensive rebounder. And while his 2-pointer conversion lags behind Kirilenko, he has yet to play with an All-Star caliber point guard.
This upcoming season will be telling for Eason. He had a fantastic rookie season that should have seen him make the All-Rookie first team and garner real Rookie of the Year buzz but was undone by being on a team that the media loved to hate. With a new coach, new vibes, and veteran reinforcements that should bring out his best, Eason is primed to explode.
I wouldn’t blame you for missing Eason’s rookie season, and I wouldn’t blame you for being more privy to the rest of the Rockets’ young core. But Tari Eason is too good to be denied. He’s a burgeoning defensive superstar with plenty of untapped potential. He’s a work of art with still so much more to add. Tari Eason has many futures, and they’re all incredibly bright.
Please follow the author N.B. Lindberg on Twitter: @nblindberg and Above the Break: @Above_the_Break