The Matt Stafford trade is as dumb as they come
If you were shocked when you saw the Matt Stafford trade you’re not alone. The trade is one of the most bizarre trades in recent history and it looks like the type of deal that only the singular genius of Bill O’Brien could pull off. The Rams gave up two first-round picks, a third-round pick, and Jared Goff for one Matt Stafford.
Why would the Rams give up so much to receive a player that can be best described as slightly better than the player he’s replacing? Well, presumably, they believe that Stafford is in fact much better than Goff at playing quarterback. Another theory that has been floated is that the Rams desperately wanted to be rid of Goff’s gargantuan contract which has four years and over $100 million left on it and had to pay a premium to move him.
On the surface, this looks to be a completely reasonable take. The Rams had to pay the Lions for Stafford and then they had to pay the Lions to take on Goff’s contract, which is how you send two first-round picks and a third-rounder to the motor city. Except, the move wasn’t really necessary to be rid of Goff’s contract.
Goff is still going to count $22.2 million against the Rams salary cap in 2021 and after this season his deal has no more guaranteed money left on it. If the Rams really just wanted Goff’s contract off the books they could have cut him and not had to pay another team to take it off their hands. This trade was not a cost-cutting maneuver, it was all about getting a player who can make your team significantly better. The question then is, how much does Stafford really improve the Rams?
Matt Stafford has been in the NFL for 12 seasons; it’s safe to say if he was really an elite quarterback we would know by now. He’s definitely an above-average quarterback but how much better is he than that Goff guy who was cast out like a leper? Let’s take a look at how the two stack up statistically.
The NFL is a what have you done for me lately league so let’s see what the two have done lately, namely in the 2020 season. I’ve highlighted four statistical categories, touchdown percentage (TD%), interception percentage (INT%), sack percentage (SK%), and yards per attempt (Y/A), as the four best indicators of quarterback success. I think their inclusion is self-evident but I’ll explain anyway, touchdowns are points (good), interceptions are turnovers (bad), sacks are negative plays (bad), and yards per attempts are how well you move the chains (good).
2020 production
TD% INT% SK% Y/A
Goff: 3.6% 2.4% 4% 6.8
Stafford: 4.9% 1.9% 6.7% 7.7
In 2020, Stafford was the better quarterback at just about everything outside of avoiding sacks. The Rams upgraded their quarterback situation in 2020 by swapping Stafford for Goff, but the problem remains, the 2020 season has already been played, and Stafford did so for the Lions. Was this a one-year blip? Or does Stafford have a long-standing statistical track record as the better player? The answer is no, on a whole, Goff and Stafford have been similarly productive over their careers.
Career Production
TD% INT% SK% Y/A
Goff: 4.4% 2.3% 5.1% 7.5
Stafford: 4.5% 2.3% 5.8% 7.2
The argument then has to be that Goff’s production has been tied to having a better supporting cast than Stafford over his career. This is the part that makes evaluating NFL quarterbacks so difficult. So much of a quarterback’s success is dependent on the players around them, which is why this trade still makes absolutely no sense.
The Rams haven’t had a first-round pick since they drafted Jared Goff number one overall in 2016 and they won’t have a first-round pick until the 2024 draft. Due to the NFL’s rookie wage scale, first-round picks are a great way to add high-end affordable talent. The Rams have punted on this since Goff has been their starter and it might be a reason why his statistics have suffered over the past few seasons, but it also means that Stafford will be walking into the exact same situation.
At the end of the day, this trade only works for the Rams if Stafford is a significant upgrade over Goff over the final two years of his deal. Goff is 26-years-old and Stafford turns 33 on February 7th (happy birthday!), which, once again, adds another layer of confusion to this trade.
Stafford is entering the back end of his career and Goff is entering his prime. If the players are relatively similar talent-wise then one would expect Goff to have more upside over the next two seasons by virtue of his age. With all the facts laid out, let’s lay out what this trade amounts to for the Rams.
The Rams gave up their ability to add impactful cost-effective talent until 2024 and a moved quarterback who has had All-Pro caliber seasons entering their prime for a player that might have already played their best football. It seems likely that this trade was less a product of strategy and more a masterclass in the follies of hubris.
Rams head coach, Sean McVay, has rightly earned plaudits for his ability to construct and orchestrate a highly effective offense. He and Goff reached a Superbowl together in 2018 but since that high mark the Rams and Goff have trailed off significantly. This trade reeks of a coach who believes that they are the reason for their team’s success.
When the Rams won the NFC they did so with McVay’s schematics and Goff’s efficient passing, but they also had one of the league’s best offensive lines. When they came crashing down to Earth the next season the chief culprit was the total disintegration of their offensive line’s production. Was it solely McVay’s genius that made the NFC champion Rams offense tick? No, it was the product of a fantastic offensive roster with a great coach.
Sean McVay is betting on himself in a way that is dangerous for any franchise to lean into. No matter how imaginative a coach is the games are played and won by the men risking their future cognitive abilities on the field. Perhaps Stafford is exactly what McVay needs to drag the Rams offense back to the top. Perhaps the defense will remain a top-five unit, a feat that is incredibly hard to replicate, and the Rams will look like geniuses as they storm to another Superbowl.
The smartest people in the room are the ones that know their limitations. They understand that their singular genius alone cannot get them to where they want to go. McVay must have viewed Jared Goff as his limiting factor and Matt Stafford as the one who can break through the glass ceiling to allow him to fully realize his magnum opus. The Rams have hitched their future to Sean McVay. He better be as smart as he thinks he is.