The Most Efficient Scorers of the NBA Season

Who takes the shot is as important as where it comes from

If someone asked you what the most valuable shot was, what would you say? Would you default to a layup? Would you inquire if a three-shot foul counted? Or would you answer their question with a question of your own? Because who’s taking a shot matters as much as where it’s from. For instance, Jaylen Brown is shooting 53.9% on long twos (16 to 23 feet), while Rob Dillingham is shooting 51.7% on shots at the rim (0-3 feet). Long twos aren’t as valuable as rim attempts in the aggregate, but basketball isn’t played in the aggregate. It’s played by individuals, and those individuals matter.

Scoring is the most noteworthy and important skill in basketball. It’s what gets you paid, what gets you in fake trades, and is probably still what gets you laid. As the late, great Bill Russell once said in an Uncle Drew Pepsi Max commercial, “This game has been, and always will be, about buckets.” Now, the efficiency police, of which I am one, have made scoring points not quite the reputational panacea it once was, but I’m here to rectify that, sort of.

One of the limitations of the box score is the binary distinction between shots. Is it a two-pointer or is it a three-pointer? From a big picture efficiency view, this question is relatively descriptive, but it is mostly worthless from a granular perspective. If someone goes six of ten from the field, that’s a fantastic field goal percentage. If they go six of ten on shots only by the rim, they’ve actually shot quite poorly. While being able to generate high-quality shots is a super valuable skill, I want to set that aside and focus on shot-making.

Using Basketball Reference’s shot location data, I was able to calculate how many points a player added compared to the league average efficiency based on distance from the basket. I found each player’s field goals per location bracket and then compared that figure to what the league average conversion rate would produce. From there, I was able to calculate how many additional points above average a player’s shot-making produced in each respective zone. I also split 3-pointers into corner and above-the-break categories to better reward elite 3-point shooters.

To make reading and writing more effortless, I’ve provided a key to distinguish which colloquial term aligns with each shot distance.

NBA Shot Distance Key

• (0-3 feet) : at rim, layup

• (3-10 feet): floater, short mid-range

• (10-16 feet): mid-range

• (16-23 feet/3P): long two, long mid-range

While there are a million other variables you can and should consider, this is a quick and easy way to see who the best shot makers are in the league. Without further ado, let’s start with the big number, total points above average.

*Stats are as of January 5th

NBA Leaders in Total Points Above Average

This figure takes free throws into account, which is why a player like Giannis Antetokounmpo doesn’t crack it. Now, it’s no surprise to see Nikola Jokic, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Kevin Durant, and Steph Curry near the top of a list like this, but Kon Knueppel, Deandre Ayton, and Vit Krejci ranking eighth through tenth was definitely a shock.

Knueppel might be having the best rookie shooting season of the century, and almost certainly the best shooting season for a 20-year-old. DeAndre Ayton has always been a solid mid-range shooter and gets to feast off the Lakers’ three excellent creators. And then Krejci is shooting a sizzling 46.8% from three, and an absurd 48.4% on above-the-break threes.

Let’s take a look at the best shot makers from the field and compare how much of their scoring profile comes down to free-throw shooting.

The list doens’t change all that much, but you can see how powerful Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s free throw generation is to his scoring profile. Once again, Deandre Ayton’s season, from a scoring efficiency standpoint, has been better than anyone could have imagined. After last night’s game, Cam Spencer deserves a bit more attention. He has been absolutely nails as a shooter all year and does a bit more on the ball than your run-of-the-mill spot-up white guy.

Let’s get more granular and see the best in the business from each region. We’ll start at the rim and progress beyond the arc.

NBA Leaders in Points Above Average: At Rim

Huge surprise here, Giannis Antetokounmpo is the king of generating value at the rim. He is not only an excellent finisher, but he gets there with tremendous frequency. While this list is dotted with a few supply-dependent finishers, I think we should shoutout the guys who are generally generating their own shot. Jalen Johnson is having a breakout on top of a breakout this season, and his ability to get to and finish at the rim is a big part of that. Michael Porter Jr, it turns out, was not just living off Nikola Jokic’s passing wizardry. Amen Thompson’s status here is hard to pindown. As someone who watches a ton of Rockets games, he is an absolutely lethal cutter, but his ability to finish off his own drives is a bit less impressive. Trey Murphy III is known for his 3-point shot, but he’s a much more well-rounded scorer than he’s given credit for. And finally, Nikola Jokic, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, and Luka Doncic. Ever heard of them?

NBA Leaders in Total Points Above Average: Floater Range

No player has a bigger lead on second than Jokic does in the floater/short mid-range. His 26 points above average lead is simply staggering, and this shot is the basis of his offensive mastery. Pascal Siakam and Jaren Jackson Jr are both struggling through disappointing team seasons, but they’ve been killers in the floater range. Unfortunately for both, they’ve been well below league average at the rim.

Among the surprises, Naji Marshall ranking this high was not on my bingo card. He has had an excellent season, and his finishing within ten feet has been a huge reason why. Payton Pritchard, due to his height, is somewhat of a shock, but if you watch him play with any regularity, it makes a ton of sense. He’s excellent at getting into the short mid-range and hitting a turnaround or fadeaway. Maxime Raynaud has played far more than the Kings had hoped, but his efficient scoring has far outstripped his draft position (42nd). I don’t know how he’ll fare on defense as he develops, but he looks poised to be a solid offense-first backup center.

NBA Leaders in Total Points Above Average: Mid-Range

Just as everyone predicted, the top five are Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Kevin Durant, Kawhi Leonard, Jalen Brunson, and Payton Pritchard?!? Okay, so the first four all make sense, but Pritchard showing up this high is definitely a shock. Cooper Flagg and Knueppel at 13 and 14 is mighty impressive for two rookies with relatively high offensive loads. The most surprising name is probably Jonas Valanciunas, but he has always had a solid, if terribly slow, mid-range jumper. Honestly, the mid-range list is mostly made up of characters you would expect.

NBA Leaders in Total Points Above Average: Long Twos

All that really matters is what Jaylen Brown is doing. His 34 points above average on long twos is as much as second and third combined. Yes, Jaylen Brown has provided, by himself, as much value on long twos as Kevin Durant and Devin Booker, combined. While I don’t think there’s any chance he keeps up this level of shot-making, he has been at or above the league average in every region of the court. The figures here are comparatively much lower due to this being the league’s least frequent shot, but shoutout to Peyton Watson for the most random guy on the list award.

NBA Leaders in Total Points Above Average: Corner 3s

Just as a refresher, this season, the league has shot 38.6% on corner threes, 36% on threes overall, and 35.2% on above-the-break threes. This list is a hodgepodge of excellent 3-pointer shooters, corner three specialists, and guys riding insanely positive shooting variance. For example, A.J. Green, aka Dairy Bird, is a sniper, while Mikal Bridges owns a career 41.6% corner three percentage, and then Tari Eason is shooting 59.1%. Due to the overall volume of corner threes being relatively low, you can see some truly wild shooting splits.

NBA Leaders in Total Points Above Average: Above-the-Break 3s

If Jamal Murray can’t make the All-Star team as the best above-the-break 3-point shooter in the league, then he’s destined to never make it. Unlike the corner three list, this is genuinely a who’s-who of the best 3-point shooters in the league. The only player that’s really a surprise is Bub Carrington, who is shooting 42% on threes this season, compared to 37.3% on twos.

Alright, now that we’ve gotten through the good. Let’s take a gander at some of the ugly. Overall, the least efficient shot maker in the league this season has been Jeremiah Fears at -70 points above (below) average. As a rookie point guard thrust into a large role, this isn’t a surprise, but his scoring efficiency is worth monitoring if you’re a believer.

Notable Disappointments in Total Points Above Average

Karl-Anthony Towns’ shooting from the field has been -41 points above average this season, and his overall shooting has been worth -21. Considering his true shooting percentage, which takes free throws into account, is 5% above the league average, that’s a concerning difference. VJ Edgecombe garnered a lot of early Rookie of the Year support, but he has somehow been +27 points above average on above-the-break threes, yet is -30 from the field overall. If you’re doing the arithmetic at home, that’s -57 points on all other shots. Finally, I’ve long been skeptical of Paolo Banchero as a tier-one offensive initiator, and this is exactly why. He’s inefficient from the field, and even though he gets to the line a ton, he’s inefficient from there as well.

These lists aren’t definitive rankings of the best scorers, or even really the best shot makers. It doesn’t take into account openness, how many dribbles a player has taken, the defenders, the shot clock, or any of the other crucial factors that make buckets. However, if you use a little bit of context clues, it’s not too hard to see who the best shotmakers really are. If you’d like a larger sample of the data, you can find my email below, or you can message me through Substack.

For any inquiries about work, discussion, and the like, you can email me at nevin.l.brown@gmail.com.