The Most Valuable Players of the 2022-23 NBA Season Part I
Introduction, Tiers 1, 2, and 3
By: N.B. Lindberg (Twitter/X: @nblindberg)
Reducing humans into ledgers on an Excel sheet is one of the unfortunate ramifications of big data making its way into sports, but that’s exactly what we’re going to do. Excellence on the court outweighs just about everything, except if that on-court excellence doesn’t align with your contract.
The NBA Most Valuable Player award is strictly about your value on the court, but the way teams (and now far too many fans) see it, your value is the relationship between your production and your salary. A perfect example of this is Tobias Harris and Josh Hart. Last season, Harris produced 5.9 win shares (WS), .116 WS per 48 minutes (WS/48), a 0.7 box plus-minus (BPM), and 1.7 value over a replacement player (VORP) in 2436 minutes. Hart had a nearly identical season, producing 6.0 WS, .118 WS/48, 0.9 BPM, and 1.8 VORP in 2454 minutes. However, Harris earned $37.6 million, while Hart earned $12.9 million. Harris is a far better player than Hart. Still, his status as the fourth option next to two ball-dominant players (James Harden and Joel Embiid) and Tyrese Maxey makes it nearly impossible for him to live up to his lofty salary, and the fans and organizations know that. Simply put, Harris is on a negative value contract, and Hart is not. It’s why every Sixer fan wants Harris traded, and every Knicks fan instantly fell in love with Hart.
To determine the most valuable players in the 2022-23 season, I had to determine how much a single win cost and how many wins an individual generated. From there, I could find each player’s single-season surplus value and determine the most valuable players in the NBA. I calculated the cost of a single win to be $3.83 million by dividing the total amount spent on salary ($4.722 billion) by the total number of wins 1230. This is admittedly an imperfect measurement. Rookie contracts and the rules governing how player salaries escalate over time aren’t accurately weighed here, but it’s a good enough starting point.
The next step was determining how many wins a player generated. To do this, I took a player’s WS and their wins above replacement (WAR) based on their VORP (to get WAR from VORP, you multiply VORP by 2.7) and averaged the two. Once again, this isn’t a perfect system, but I think it comes close enough to determining how valuable a player’s production was during the regular season. From there, things got a lot simpler. I simply multiplied their wins by the cost of a single win (Wins x $3.83M) and then subtracted their salary to determine surplus value. According to this methodology, 142 players produced surplus value, another 82 there weren’t full salary details on Spotrac (mostly two-way players), and 315 players produced negative value. I’ve ordered the list into tiers based on each player’s standard deviation of surplus value. The tiers are far more important than the actual rankings.
Tier 1: God Amongst Mere Mortals (5+ Standard Deviations)
1. Nikola Jokic: $41,739,412.21 Surplus Value // 19.33 Wins // 5.20 StdDev
Superstars in their prime are the most coveted players in the league for a reason; they give you the best chance to win championships and provide unparalleled bang for your buck. Jokic made $32.478 million last season, but his 19.33 wins provided a total value of $74.2 million for a surplus value of $41.74 million. His 5.2 standard deviations from the mean in surplus value show just how valuable truly outlier players are. They make it nearly impossible for you to miss the playoffs, and with semi-competent roster construction, you’re a guaranteed contender. Jokic is set to get more expensive and realistically only has a few more seasons where he can perform at this level in the regular season. But because of where the salary cap is headed and his high starting point, he’ll be on a value-generating contract for years to come. Player empowerment is a feature of the NBA, not a bug.
Tier 2: Cheap All-NBA Players (5 to 4 Standard Deviations)
2. Domantas Sabonis: $33,679,307.83 Surplus Value // 13.59 Wins // 4.20 StdDev
The Domantas Sabonis for Tyrese Haliburton trade is the rare trade where both teams and fanbases are happy with their end of the deal after a year. The Pacers have a young star to build around, and the Kings have the right star to get the most out of De’Aaron Fox. Sabonis ranks second for two and a half reasons. Reason one, he’s great. Reason 0.5, advanced metrics probably overrate him. And reason two, he only made $18 million this past season. Sabonis is a legitimately great offensive player, an exceptional defensive rebounder, and incredibly durable. Wins are a counting stat, and playing 79 games gives you plenty of chances to count. Win shares and BPM overstate his defensive impact, so you can mentally move him down a tier, but we’re talking about undisputedly one of the five best offensive centers in the league making less than $20 million. The Kings made moves to bump Sabonis’ compensation to $30.6 million next season, but as long as he’s healthy, he’ll remain a positive value contract, so far as win shares and VORP are concerned. Still, I would rather have the next guy.
3. Tyrese Haliburton: $33,181,970.38 Surplus Value // 9.74 Wins // 4.14 StdDev
Tyrese Haliburton is doing his best to answer Bill Simmons’ favorite genre of question, “What if Steve Nash played in the 2020s?” Haliburton finally had an offense all to his own in 2022-23, and the results were sublime. He finished fifth in offensive BPM, and if it weren’t for missing time due to injury, he would have jumped Sabonis and closed the gap somewhat on Jokic, plus the Pacers could have snagged a play-in spot. His 9.74 wins aren’t earth-shattering, but he only made $4.2M, a total that expects a player to contribute 1.1 wins. Haliburton is the safest young star to bet on; he’s already excellent, his skill set of elite passing and shooting should age well, and he has solid positional size. The Pacers gave him a massive extension, but that won’t kick in for another season. As long as Haliburton stays healthy, his “fun-max,” as Brian Windhorst calls it (a player’s first max contract coming off their rookie deal), should bring Barbie levels of joy to the Pacers.
Tier 3: Get Them While They’re Cheap or Make Sure They’re a Star (3-2.5 Standard Deviations)
4. Nic Claxton: $24,193,657.56 Surplus Value // 8.52 Wins // 3.03 StdDev
If the Brooklyn Nets hadn’t imploded, Nic Claxton’s breakout in 2022-23 would have been one of the stories of the season. Claxton finally put all his physical gifts together and delivered a peak DeAndre Jordan season. He finished seventh in defensive BPM, fourth in defensive WS, second in true shooting percentage, and first in effective field goal percentage. He has become the quintessential modern NBA center. He can defend the rim, survive in space, set screens, and rim run. Unfortunately, instead of being the fourth guy next to James Harden, Kevin Durant, and Kyrie Irving, he ended the season as the second guy next to Mikal Bridges. Claxton’s $8.5 million salary is doing a lot of the heavy lifting here, but he’ll be making under $10 million next season before what will surely be a significant pay raise. The center position has become devalued salary-wise around the league, and Claxton is a perfect example. It’s far easier to find a Nic Claxton than it is to find a Tyrese Haliburton. Claxton was worth $32 million in value last season, and it’s hard to see him ever being on a bad contract so long as he hits 60 games and maintains this level.
5. Trey Murphy III: $23,305,482.99 Surplus Value // 6.91 Wins // 2.92 StdDev
They should call Trey Murphy III Mr. Redundancy (Trey is a nickname for the III), but maybe he’s onto something by loading up on the threes. Murphy was one of the league’s best high-volume 3-point shooters last season and saw his game blossom across the board. He’s a true 3-and-D player, and his 3-ball is such a plus already that he can afford to lose a step on defense and remain a highly-valuable player. 6.91 wins from a second-year role player making $3.2 million is why teams will always covet draft picks. With Murphy slated to earn $3.3 million in 2023-24 and $5.19 million in 2024-25, he has a chance to not only stay in this tier but move up. To do that, he’ll need to improve his shot creation and/or playmaking, but I wouldn’t rule it out for a player on such a meteoric rise. In 2019-20, Murphy averaged 13.7 points per game for Rice. Two seasons later, he averaged 14.5 in the NBA. The Pelicans’ young core is extremely promising, and there’s a real chance that Murphy earns a fun-max coming off his rookie deal.
6. Joel Embiid: $23,169,982.23 Surplus Value // 14.79 Wins // 2.90 StdDev
The NBA’s MVP was only the sixth most valuable contract! Someone call the awards police (but seriously, Jokic should have won). Embiid’s 14.79 wins were the second most in the league behind Jokic, and at only $33.616 million in salary, he gave the Sixers a massive cushion to absorb a Tobias Harris-sized contract. Embiid is another example of why teams will move heaven, earth, and the secret third universal sphere we never speak of to land a true superstar. The max contract makes it so you cannot possibly pay an MVP-caliber player what they’re worth. Embiid will get more expensive, and his durability is always a question, but when you have a player of this quality, you just live with the beauty marks and push for championships. Or you’re the Sixers and try to be perpetually on the verge of ruining a good thing.
7. Desmond Bane: $21,962,854.68 Surplus Value // 6.28 Wins // 2.75 StdDev
Desmond Bane’s rookie contract is one of the great values in league history. Throughout his first three seasons, he produced 15.69 wins for a total cost of $6.1 million. To be completely honest, you’d probably have to go back close to 30 years for his salary-to-win ratio to hit the red. What makes this all the more absurd, is Bane still has one more year of NBA-peasantry wages before his max extension kicks in. With Ja Morant set to miss the first 25 games of the season and Tyus Jones now on the Wizards, Bane should set career highs in scoring and usage. Thus far, Bane has been immune to usage-induced efficiency decay, as his usage has crept up every season, but his TS% has held steady between 59.2% and 60.6%. While Bane is known as a shooter, he’s also a strong defender and when given the role, a solid playmaker. On another team, Bane would have been the defacto lead ball handler years ago and earned unfair Steph Curry comps. He’ll have a training camp and 25-game runway to show just how good he is, and the Grizzlies might be better off for it in the long run. Even if he comes up a little short, his contract has one more year of guaranteed returns before the fun-max kicks in.
8. Walker Kessler: $21,819,043.75 Surplus Value // 6.39 Wins // 2.73 StdDev
Late first-round picks, who make an instant impact in the NBA, are surplus-value gold mines. To break even, they don’t even have to produce one win of value, and, as a rookie, Walker Kessler generated 6.39 wins in 74 games and only 40 starts. Even if his production falls off, he will likely produce even more value just through a minutes increase. Kessler won’t earn over $3 million until he’s in the final year of his rookie deal in 2025-26, so he’s a safe bet to be on a tier-3 contract for the immediate future. As a center with a small yet highly impactful role, he’ll always rank highly in these types of lists. Rim-deterring centers that gobble up rebounds and call “catching lobs” their bag are value generators but not hard to find. If you’re an NFL fan, the center position is a lot like the running back position. It’s super important, but you can also find a ton of guys who can give you real value. If this were a trade value article, he’d rank far lower, but the Jazz are undoubtedly jazzed about turning Rudy Gobert into young Rudy Gobert and all the picks.
9. Immanuel Quickley: $21,431,296.35 Surplus Value // 6.19 Wins // 2.68 StdDev
Immanuel Quickley was my pick for Sixth Man of the Year, and it is patently absurd that he didn’t usurp RJ Barrett in the Knicks' starting lineup. According to WS and WAR-based VORP, Barrett was basically a replacement-level player, while Quickley was a top-50 player. Even if you’re dubious of advanced metrics, outside of minutes and shooting volume (partially the coach’s decision), pretty much every statistical marker favored Quickley significantly. 2022-23 was the best season of Quickley’s career, but he’s been a productive player since he entered the league. The Knicks were +8.6 points per 100 possessions better with him on the court, and that’s a trend that has been a constant throughout his career. Quickley’s $2.3 million salary is why he ranks so high, but he still has one more season of incredibly cheap wages. The Knicks should be looking to extend him as soon as possible, and a salary topping $20 million per season would be excellent value. If given more minutes and a more significant role (a big if), Quickley could easily be worth a contract north of $30 million. We’ll see if the Knicks do what it takes to keep him, but if they let Quickley go to keep Barrett, it will be one of the few severe mistakes by the suddenly well-run Knicks over the past few seasons.
10. Evan Mobley: $20,797,749.63 Surplus Value // 7.63 Wins // 2.61 StdDev
Evan Mobley might be a center on a rookie contract, but he’s different than the rest of these guys. Mobley is already one of the best defensive players in the league and has a role versatility that Claxton, Kessler, and even Embiid lack. Centers who can engulf space on the perimeter are the most valuable defenders in the league because they allow you to play two centers. Mobley’s ability to play next to Jarrett Allen gives the Cavaliers the foundation to be a top-5 defense year in and year out. The Cavaliers won’t bat an eye when they give Mobley a max extension, and he’ll be worth every penny. He produced 7.63 wins as the third option on offense and without the benefit of being the lone big. In most situations, Mobley would be a second option on offense and be allocated far more shots, assists, and juicy roll-man opportunities. Over the next two seasons, Mobley will make around $20 million total, and because of how good he already is, the Cavaliers should push as hard as possible to win a championship before he gets expensive and they face some tough financial decisions. Top-5 picks have a difficult time making a list like this because they make far more money, tend to be younger, and are on bad teams compared to late first round picks. Mobley bucked all of that and is poised to challenge for multiple Defensive Player of the Year awards at the very least.
11. Kevon Looney: $20,068,735.85 Surplus Value // 7.05 Wins // 2.52 StdDev
Ahhh, back to the basics. Kevon Looney is your regular Nic Claxton and Walker Kessler type. He’s a good player that makes very little money and does a valuable job well. Looney is a strong post defender, is one of the league’s best rebounders, particularly on the offensive end, and is a surprisingly effective passer. However, he does play next to three future Hall of Famers who make his job as easy as possible. On offense, Steph Curry and Klay Thompson provide elite spacing to give him a chance to bully on the boards and finish around the rim and are also a safe bet to reward a kick out. On defense, Looney is the beneficiary of playing with Draymond Green, who remains one of the best and most versatile defenders in basketball. I’m not suggesting that Looney isn’t a good player, but he’s an example of how putting players into an ideal situation can pay off in a big way. 7.05 wins is an incredible value, but there’s just about no other team that could coax that level of value out of him.
12. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: $19,998,510.62 Surplus Value // 13.26 Wins // 2.51 StdDev
I don’t mean to brag, but I was on the Shai Gilgeous-Alexander bandwagon years before he came to national prominence. He popped as a rookie and was able to improve or hold his efficiency steady even as his usage continued to climb. Following his second year, I was sold that SGA was the next superstar guard. He can score at all three levels, is an adept playmaker, can defend his position, and keeps improving. SGA feels younger than he is, but he made this list while making $30.913 million in only 68 games. He was one of six players to generate over $50 million in value last season, and with his supporting cast set to improve over the next half-decade, there’s no telling how high he could move in the league hierarchy. SGA does have durability concerns, but as long as he plays 60 games and is healthy in the playoffs, he’ll be worth whatever the max contract can throw at him. The Thunder will be contenders very soon, and SGA will be leading the charge.
Final Thoughts on Tiers 1, 2, and 3
The players in tiers one, two, and three are all highly productive players that are either superstars earning that distinction or are on sweetheart contracts. It’s hard for great players to stay cheap forever, so only the absolute best players in the league can be in these tiers for an extended period, which is why teams will give up the farm (draft picks, years of surplus value) to employ them.
If you ever feel like veteran players struggle to stick around as long as they should, rookie contracts are the reason. Rookie contracts come at a fraction of the cost of most veteran signings, and they offer far more upside. As teams view players more like assets, players on rookie deals will continue to be valued highly. They offer plenty of upside with next to no downside, which sounds right up a day trader’s alley. It also should be noted; older draftees, who are ready to contribute as rookies, may be a slightly untapped market inefficiency. Drafting a 19-year-old in the top five gives you a chance at a star, but chances are they won’t provide surplus value until year three of their deal, the final season before they’re extension eligible, and young players drafted further down in the draft usually pop even later. However, if you find a league-average 22-year-old with the 25th pick, that player is providing positive value for the duration of their rookie deal.
Centers dominated the first three tiers for a few reasons. First, Jokic, Embiid, and Sabonis are legitimate studs. While I would have had Anthony Davis on my third-team All-NBA, Sabonis was the fulcrum of the league’s best offense, and Jokic and Embiid have finished one and two in MVP voting the past three seasons. Center is intrinsically the most valuable position in the sport. Basketball is about the rim, and centers are naturally the closest players to it by virtue of their height and positioning. Unless a center is an actual offensive hub or is a defensive eraser capable of playing next to another center, it’s probably best for teams to use minimal salary to address the position because you can find a highly productive player for $10 million or less. But that doesn’t mean they’re not important.
My final observation from the top three tiers is that our idea of durability for elite players needs to adjust. Of the five All-Stars and Desmond Bane, only Sabonis played over 70 games. The rigors of an NBA season (injuries, fatigue) and the prospects of a deep playoff run make it incredibly difficult to eclipse the 70-game mark. Load management is a feature of the modern NBA, not a bug, much like player empowerment. If the league seriously wants to tackle these two “problems,” all that’s needed is to eliminate the upper constraints of the max contract and cut between 10 to 16 games from the schedule. However, that sounds like a bridge too far for the perpetually money-conscious owners. I also would guess that the NBA’s middle class would reject those two solutions as revenue could shrink, and they would stop seeing the leftover salary created by the constraints of the max contract flowing their way. Star players have immense power not only because they drive the league as an entertainment product, but they’re also functionally sacrificing the most financially for the benefit of the owners and the remainder of the player pool.
Part II will be released in a day or two, followed by parts III, IV, and V