The Most Valuable Players of the 2022-23 NBA Season Part II
Tiers 4 & 5 (Players Ranked 13-37)
In Part I, I introduce the methodology behind these rankings and tiers one through three (top-12 most valuable contracts). To quickly summarize the methodology, I took the cost in salary per win last season, calculated each player’s wins using win shares and VORP-based WAR, and then compared their salary to their wins multiplied by the cost of a win to get surplus value. The top three tiers had a mixture of stars, cost-controlled players, and veterans, with centers standing out the most of any position group. Now onto tiers four and five.
Tier 4: Stars & Centers (2.5 to 2.0 Standard Deviations)
13. Darius Garland: $19,664,557.97 Surplus Value // 7.45 Wins // 2.47 StdDev
Darius Garland is one of the NBA’s bright young stars. His 7.45 wins in 69 games paints him as a borderline All-Star, an impressive feat considering he splits the lead guard duties in Cleveland with Donovan Mitchell. However, his salary is what vaults him to the top of tier four. Garland only made $8.9 million last season in the final year of his rookie deal. He’s set to see a significant pay raise to $34 million next season, but that won’t torpedo his value, even if it kicks him down a tier or two. His 7.45 wins add up to $28.5 million in value. With the salary cap increasing and the likelihood that he improves to some degree throughout his deal, there’s very little chance his fun-max becomes a burden. Garland does have his warts. He’s small, a poor defender, and has never played 70 games in a season. However, he’s such an excellent offensive player who can thrive on or off the ball that he can co-exist in any offensive environment. He’s an exceptional pick-and-roll maestro and an elite high-volume 3-point shooter. As a bonus, he seems to add something to his game every season. The player he is now is superb, and there’s a chance he will go to another level and join a few All-NBA teams.
14. Ja Morant: $19,095,995.81 Surplus Value // 8.13 Wins // 2.39 StdDev
This is likely the final season that Ja Morant ranks so highly on this list, but it’s not out of the question that he could find himself back in a top tier in 2024-25. Morant was in the final year of his rookie deal in 2022-23 and will see his salary go from $12.12 million to $34 million. Morant, when on the court, has been one of the best offensive players in the league the past two seasons, but he set his career high in games played at 67 as a rookie and will miss at least 25 games this upcoming season due to a suspension. Availability is not one of Morant’s abilities, but he is one of the league’s premiere playmakers and can score at league-average efficiency on massive volume. With how expensive Memphis’ roster is trending in the next few seasons, the Grizzlies need Morant’s production to stay the course and for his availability at the very least to plateau. He’s young enough he may have another level to get to, and if he pairs that with good health, he could once again be one of the league’s most valuable contracts. It won’t be in 2023-24, but I wouldn’t rule it out in the future.
15. Mason Plumlee: $18,044,596.04 Surplus Value // 6.92 Wins // 2.26 StdDev
Mason Plumlee is an analytics darling because he is a modern-day rim-running center who can really pass it. No one confuses Plumlee with Jokic, but compared to your run-of-the-mill rim runner, his passing is incredible. Last season, Plumlee was one of seven players to post an assist percentage of 17% or greater and a defensive rebounding percentage of 25% or greater (min. 400 minutes). The other six players were Nikola Jokic, Joel Embiid, Luka Doncic, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Domantas Sabonis, and Julius Randle. Plumlee is nowhere near as good as these guys, but it’s incredibly hard to find rebounding and passing in a single package, and those two traits add up to a highly valuable player. Helping Plumlee was his $8.5 million salary, but instead of getting a deserved bump in salary, he decided to accept the Clippers’ $5 million offer to play for a contender. Plumlee will likely be Ivacia Zubac’s backup but could end up their crunch-time center due to his more expansive offensive game. Regardless of his role, Plumlee has every chance to be one of the 20 best contracts for the 2023-24 season.
16. Luka Dončić: $16,695,413.37 Surplus Value // 14.01 Wins // 2.10 StdDev
2022-23 was the first year of Luka Doncic’s max contract, and let’s just say he’s well worth the money. Doncic earned $37.096 million but was worth $53.8 million based on his 14.01 wins. The amount of surplus value Doncic generated over the life of his rookie contract makes the constraints of the max contract seem even more unfair. He has generated far more than $100 million of surplus value for the Mavericks in his short career, and that figure will only continue to grow so long as he doesn’t miss two full seasons. This is one of the league’s ten best players, and there’s an easy argument for him being one of the three best offensive players. Throw in fantastic rebounding for a guard, and even with nonchalant defense, he is a player you do what it takes to get, keep, and please. The biggest knock on Doncic is that he has sneakily not been the most durable player, missing, on average, 12.6 games per season, but that’s the going rate for high-end players. However, due to his age, it’s somewhat of a concern because durability is one of those abilities that can age fast. The Mavericks have yet to put a great team around Doncic, but this upcoming season is probably their best work. Luka has more than held up his end of the bargain; it’s just on the Mavericks to make good on a generational talent.
17. Alperen Şengün: $16,455,848.61 Surplus Value // 5.17 Wins // 2.07 StdDev
If you listen to the Above the Break podcast (which you should), you’ll know that Alperen Sengun is a hotly debated subject, but that’s focused on his future impact on a championship-caliber team. However, right now, Sengun is one of the best values in the league. He only made $3.3 million last season and added 5.17 wins. That’s serious value, and he does it mainly on the offensive end, a rarity for a young center. Sengun and Domantas Sabonis were the only players in the NBA with an offensive rebounding percentage greater than 10%, an assist percentage greater than 20%, a free throw attempt rate greater than 0.330, and an effective field goal percentage greater than 56%. While Sengun lagged behind Sabonas in all those metrics except for offensive rebounding, he only turned 21 in July and has played with some of the worst surrounding talent and coaching in the league over his first two seasons. There might not be a more gifted young offensive center in the NBA than Sengun, and he’ll be making $3.5 million this season and $5.4 million in 2024-25. If the Rockets lean into his playmaking, there’s a real chance he goes up multiple tiers. For as great as his offensive potential is, his defense may hold him back from ever being a franchise player. Sengun isn’t tall enough to be a rim deterrent and not nimble enough to switch onto guards. He does have active hands and good instincts, but he’ll need to be a savant to be an average defensive center.
18. Lauri Markkanen: $16,371,785.04 Surplus Value // 8.56 Wins // 2.06 StdDev
It wasn’t that long ago people flayed the Cleveland Cavaliers for signing Lauri Markkanen to a four-year, $67 million contract, but it’s that exact contract that lands Markkanen here. While the Cavaliers won’t reap the benefit of their foresight, the Jazz still have him for two more years at $17.2 million and $18 million. Markkanen took a massive leap in 2022-23 as he sported the highest usage and true shooting percentage of his career. His leap earned him an All-Star appearance and Most Improved Player award and completely changed the trajectory of the Jazz. He is one of the league’s best play finishers, an incredible high volume 3-point shooter, and as a seven-foot power forward, he offers some defensive utility through his sheer length. Still, Markkanen has his warts. He provides next to no playmaking, his rebounding is just fine, and even with great positional size, he is a defensive negative. If he can retain his scoring gains and expand his offensive game or improve as a defender, he’ll be an All-NBA player for the cost of an average starter. If last season proves to be a career year, he’ll still be on an excellent contract, just not one of the best in the league.
19. Jayson Tatum: $16,241,001.50 Surplus Value // 12.14 Wins // 2.04 StdDev
Jayson Tatum is just about everything you want in a franchise player. He’s young, wildly productive, an asset on both ends of the court, and durable. You know a player is great when they make $30.3 million and are still on a great deal. Tatum was one of seven players to eclipse 12 wins this past season, but he’s closer to Domantas Sabonis than Jokic, Embiid, Luka, SGA, and Jimmy Butler on a per-minute basis. That’s not a slight to Tatum, but rather an acknowledgment that one of his best abilities is durability. He has eclipsed 70 games played in every 82-game season of his career and, on average, has only missed 5.5 games per season, an incredible feat for a player who has also averaged 15.67 playoff games per season. While Tatum has yet to crack the top 10 in BPM or WS/48, he has been slowly climbing the per-minute ladder. If he has already peaked, that’s still a hell of a player, but if he can continue his slow steady assent while maintaining his lunch pail attitude towards playing, there’s a real chance he ends up leading the league in VORP or WS. Tatum is already a superstar in a value sense, but he’s just a tad behind the most impactful players on a per-minute basis. The Celtics certainly aren’t going to complain, but as their roster begins to get more expensive, they’ll need Tatum to level up to maintain the standards they’ve set over the past two seasons.
20. Jimmy Butler: $16,023,427.26 Surplus Value // 13.98 Wins // 2.01 StdDev
As the Miami Heat stormed to the Finals, the NBA world became enamored with playoff Jimmy Butler. The thing is, playoff Jimmy is a myth. The dude is always one of the best players in the league, and the 2022-23 season was his finest yet. Butler’s 13.98 wins were the fourth most in the league, and he did it in only 64 games. This is why superstars run the NBA. They can carry an underperforming supporting cast to the playoffs and give them a puncher's chance against anyone. One of the reasons Butler’s regular season performance is so underrated is he is an absolute offensive grindstone. His free throw attempt rate of .625 was second in the league to Mason Plumlee, a lob-catching center, and he was the only player to pair an assist percentage of greater than 25% with a turnover percentage of less than 8.5%. Also, lest we forget, he’s also one of the best wing defenders in the league. The only real wart Butler has as a player is he isn’t a good 3-point shooter, but that hardly matters because he takes so few. Butler is already 33 years old and has three more years left on his deal in excess of $45 million per season, but there’s a high likelihood he remains a positive value contract throughout most of it. If you have a career year at 33, no one can accuse you of aging poorly. Jimmy Butler is a stone-cold lock Hall of Famer at the peak of his powers. Those are the guys you pay what it takes to keep them around.
21. Daniel Gafford: $15,999,956.79 Surplus Value // 4.67 Wins // 2.01 StdDev
If you’re not familiar with Daniel Gafford, I wouldn’t blame you. He played 20 minutes a night for the Washington Wizards as either Kristaps Porzingis’ backup or next to Porzingis. The Wizards’ double-center lineups were actually pretty solid, but not in the way you would hope. They scored like Gangbusters, 124.65 points per 100 possessions, but defended like Dave & Busters, 118.83 opponent points per 100 possessions. Gafford is the reason people mistrust metrics like WS and VORP because his impact on winning is minimal, but he grades out as a solid to better player. However, Gafford is largely this high because he earned $1.9 million last season. Hitting on a second-round pick is basically free real estate when a win costs around $3.8 million. Gafford is a fine NBA center, but this will probably be his final season in this tier. His compensation will rise to $12.4 million, and his supporting cast has gotten substantially worse. The good news for Gafford truthers (if such a person exists) is his minutes and opportunities should skyrocket as the starting center for a bad team with theoretically solid spacing.
Tier 5: Rising Rookie Deals and Unheralded Vets (2.0 to 1.5 Standard Deviations)
22. Austin Reaves: $15,023,281.84 Surplus Value // 4.32 Wins // 1.89 StdDev
Austin Reaves and Daniel Gafford are identical polar opposites. They’re both ranked this high because they were second-round picks making under $2 million that contributed around 4.5 wins and split time coming off the bench and as a starter, but Reaves actually helps his team win games. For his career, the Lakers have a +7.8 net rating with Reaves on the court, and this isn’t just a LeBron bump. Last season, the Lakers had a +2.34 net rating with Reaves on the court and LeBron on the sideline. When you flip it, the Lakers clock in at a +2.56 net rating. Just for fun, with LeBron and Reaves sharing the court, the Lakers had a +8.09 net rating. Reaves is legitimately awesome and integral to the Lakers' chances of winning a championship. He’s an efficiency monster (fourth-best true shooting percentage), a true three-level scoring threat, a free throw merchant (eighth in free throw attempt rate), can provide secondary creation, and isn’t a defensive liability. He’s the total package, and playing next to LeBron and Anthony Davis, we won’t find out if he can’t handle being the guy. The Lakers somehow locked him up on basically the same four-year extension that Daniel ‘F***ing’ Gafford got in October of 2021. So I’m guessing we’ll see Reaves back on this list.
25. Brook Lopez: $14,409,609.38 Surplus Value // 7.38 Wins // 1.81 StdDev
Let’s keep this short and sweet. Brook Lopez is one of the game's elite rim protectors. He gobbles up rebounds. He is a credible threat from 3-point range. And he can get you a bucket in the post when called upon. He’s the perfect center to get the most out of Giannis Antetokounmpo’s gifts. He also only made $13.9 million last season. That’s value. He’ll make $25 million this upcoming season, but he’ll be worth it, even if he falls down a tier or so.
26. Tyrese Maxey: $14,378,257.34 Surplus Value // 4.46 Wins // 1.81 StdDev
Tyrese Maxey is one of the most entertaining players in the league. The bastard offspring of Thor or Zeus, he is lightning personified on the court. He’s the player most likely to score 10 points in 30 seconds. Maxey is what basketball is all about. He’s fun and good and audacious and on a rookie contract so his bosses are happy. Generating 4.46 wins as the third or fourth option behind Joel Embiid and James Harden is extremely difficult for a player with minimal (a nice way of saying negative) defensive value. Maxey has one more year on late first-round pick money before he can cash in on a well-deserved pay raise. The Sixers haven’t extended him yet, which is par for their let’s play with fire like a 13-year-old boy course. If James Harden continues to commit to the bit and doesn’t show up in Philadelphia, Maxey could be in for a massive season. He isn’t a finished product, his defense and playmaking both need to improve, but players that can score like him and create numerical advantages through sheer speed are immensely valuable offensive players. Chances are the Sixers will regret not paying him now, but chances are the Sixers will regret everything.
27. Onyeka Okongwu: $13,973,583.79 Surplus Value // 5.31 Wins // 1.76 StdDev
Onyeka Okongwu’s emergence as maybe the best backup center in the league has made Clint Capela expendable in Atlanta. Whether they can find a move for Capela is another question, but Okongwu deserves the opportunity to be a starter. He’s a B-tech Bam Adebayo, a highly mobile center that can protect the rim. His passing hasn’t popped as much as Bam’s did early on, but that’s unsurprising for anyone who plays next to Trae Young. Okongwu has one more season on his rookie deal and the Hawks desperately need to see if he’s their starting center of the future because he has conquered backups. If he starts, he’ll have a chance to jump a tier. If not, he’ll still provide value, just not as much as he could.
28. Jarred Vanderbilt: $13,437,858.63 Surplus Value // 4.63 Wins // 1.69 StdDev
Jarred Vanderbilt is a defensive ace who is a better corner 3-point shot away from being one of the best role players in the league. If you employ a stretch five, his lack of shooting is less of an issue, but ideally, he would improve to become a consistent 35% to 37% corner three shooter. The defense is so good you can live with his poor offense, but playoff teams can’t have non-centers that provide zero spacing playing heavy minutes. Vanderbilt will make $4.6 million this season before hitting free agency. If he experiences a boost in 3-point shooting, he could be on one of the best deals in the league, but even if he doesn’t, he’ll still provide plenty of bang for your buck.
29. Jalen Williams: $13,147,611.04 Surplus Value // 4.56 Wins // 1.66 StdDev
Congratulations to Jalen Williams for being the most valuable rookie of the 2022-23 season. It’s an impressive feat considering the next-best rookie was Jalen Duren, who finished 72nd in this exercise and is a center. Williams’ greatest strength as a rookie was his lack of any real weaknesses. He scored at decent volume and efficiency, had a 2:1 assist-to-turnover ratio, played everywhere from one through four, and was solid defensively. Where he goes from here is yet to be determined, but he has such a solid base to build from he’ll be a value-generating contract for the life of his rookie deal. Williams was a bit older for a rookie, but even if this is his peak, something I highly doubt, he’ll have been an excellent 12th-overall pick.
30. Donovan Mitchell: $12,651,034.40 Surplus Value // 11.20 Wins // 1.60 StdDev
Donovan Mitchell had the best season of his career in his first year in Cleveland. He finished 12th in offensive BPM, 11th in BPM, ninth in VORP, and was one of 11 players to reach double-digit wins while setting career highs in effective field goal percentage and points per game. Mitchell is a star, but just below the superstar distinction. To go up another level, he’ll either have to improve his defense, passing, or free throw generation, but even a small jump in one of those categories would solidify him in the top ten discussion. Mitchell only earned $30.9 million last season and is on the books for $33.1 million and $35.4 million before a sure-to-be declined $37 million player option in 2025-26. The Cavaliers have two more years of extreme value with Mitchell and need to push all of their chips in right now to get the most out of their quartet of value-generating contracts.
31. Xavier Tillman Sr.: $12,500,456.64 Surplus Value // 3.72 Wins // 1.58 StdDev
Xavier Tillman epitomizes the Memphis Grizzlies' adherence to the Surplus Value gods. He’s a solid player making under $2 million and is the NBA’s most overqualified third-string center/power forward. He has one more year on his deal before he’s a free agent, and with Brandon Clarke likely to miss next season recovering from an Achilles injury, he’ll likely provide close to four wins for little to no cost.
32. Santi Aldama: $12,438,527.55 Surplus Value // 3.79 Wins // 1.57 StdDev
I have surplus value fever, and the only prescription is more Grizzlies. Santi Aldama is a solid player who benefits in these rankings by playing in a fantastic environment to accentuate his strengths and hide his weaknesses. He’s a 6’11 power forward who can hit his corner threes well enough to provide spacing. Playing next to Ja Morant, Tyus Jones, and Desmond Bane means a steady supply of clean looks, and having Jaren Jackson Jr., Steven Adams, and Xavier Tillman as cover hides the fact that his defense isn’t that strong. Aldama will make $2.1 million next season and $3.9 million in the final year of his rookie deal. So long as the Grizzlies’ core stays healthy and productive, he’ll provide plenty of surplus value.
33. Kyle Anderson: $12,413,756.24 Surplus Value // 5.52 Wins // 1.57 StdDev
Kyle Anderson is maybe my favorite role player. He’s a great decision waiting to happen and is one of the most uniquely well-rounded players in the NBA. He was one of two players to average over 14 points, 8 rebounds, 7 assists, 1.5 steals, and 1 block while committing under 3 turnovers per 100 possessions. The other was Jordan Goodwin, who played over 800 fewer minutes and had a significantly lower effective field goal percentage. If you have gaps, Anderson will fill them. He was worth 5.52 wins, but his value probably goes well beyond that because of his extreme versatility. Minnesota signed him to a two-year, $18 million contract in one of the steals of 2022 free agency. Anderson is easily worth $18 million a season. He has one more year before he hits free agency again, heading into his age-31 season. I’m guessing he’ll land a deal that will best his career earnings of $60 million.
34. Quentin Grimes: $12,121,263.75 Surplus Value // 3.75 Wins // 1.53 StdDev
Quentin Grimes earned the trust of Tom Thibodeau and had a breakout sophomore season. 3.75 wins isn’t crazy, but for a low-usage second-year player, it portends a long and lucrative career. Grimes saw his role and usage creep up and still improved his efficiency. He’s a 3-and-D two-guard, an archetype we’ll likely see more and more of. If you have a ball-dominant point guard, Grimes is the perfect compliment. He can space the floor on offense and handle the tough defensive assignments you want your stars to avoid. He made $2.2 million last season and won’t earn over $5 million in any of the next two seasons. The Knicks have two young guards (Grimes and Immanuel Quickley) generating a ton of value but a ton of money already committed to RJ Barrett. I’d keep Grimes and Quickley over Barrett, but we’ll see if the Knicks have the stomach for that.
35. Julius Randle: $12,005,287.16 Surplus Value // 9.32 Wins // 1.52 StdDev
Speaking of the Knicks, Julius Randle ain’t so bad. While Randle is more of a really high-end regular-season innings eater than a star, you need to eat a ton of innings just to get to the playoffs. For all of Randle’s postseason struggles, he has deservedly made two All-NBA teams over the past three seasons. His 9.32 wins were 15th in the NBA, and his 2737 minutes were fifth. Everyone wants a Mazzuratti, but Randle is the NBA version of an F-250 V-10 diesel extended cab with questionable politics. He goes to work, gets the job done, and gets it done well. Randle made $23.7 million last season, $28.2 million next season, $30.3 million in 2024-25, and he has a $32.4 million player option in 2025-26. If he continues to log big minutes and maintains his production, he’ll remain on a value contract. Randle is a good player that provides more value than his talent suggests through sheer force of will. That’s a guy to root for, not denigrate.
36. Jakob Poeltl: $11,968,875.41 Surplus Value // 5.57 Wins // 1.51 StdDev
At first glance, Jakob Poeltl is just another rim-protecting rim-running center. And while he is that. He also offers just a bit more to be interesting. Poeltl was one of five qualified players to post a rebound percentage above 18% and an assist percentage above 15%. He’s by no means an elite playmaker, but his offensive game has an additional layer that many bigs lack. He is also a strong rim protector and one of the game’s better offensive rebounders. When he’s on the court, his teams are significantly better (+2.9 net rating and +4.7 on/off net rating). Poeltl isn’t a sexy player, but he’s very good at what teams need out of the center position. While he won’t be generating massive value now that he signed a 4-year, $78 million contract, he did produce a 3.6 BPM and 2.9 wins in only 26 games once he got to Toronto.
37. Franz Wagner: $11,846,857.34 Surplus Value // 4.46 Wins // 1.50 StdDev
The final player in tier four is the German sensation Franz Wagner. While Wagner has a long way to go to surpass Detlef Schrempf and Kiki VanDeWeghe as the second-greatest German player ever, he’s well on his way. Wagner was excellent as a rookie and improved offensively in just about every way in his second season. He pulled off the rare feats of increasing his offensive volume and efficiency and also improving his three-point attempt rate and free throw attempt rate. At 6’9, Wagner is tracking most closely to Jayson Tatum, albeit with very different early career roles, as a wing capable of lead ball handler duties. The lack of a functional supporting cast has limited Wagner’s metrics, but that should start to change as Orlando’s young core improves. This is not hyperbole, Wagner has a real chance to be the best player from the loaded 2021 NBA Draft that includes Evan Mobley, Cade Cunningham, Scottie Barnes, Trey Murphy III, Josh Giddey, Alperen Sengun, and Jalen Green. His dropping to eighth is a boon for the Magic because they’ll only have to pay him $5.5 million this upcoming season and $7 million in the final year of his rookie deal. Of all the players in tier four, Wagner is the most likely to jump into tier two as a borderline All-NBA/All-Star level player on a comically low salary.
Part III will come out in the following days and on Wednesday, September 6th, an Above the Break podcast will debut discussing surplus value.