The Most Valuable Players of the 2022-23 NBA Season Part V
The 25 Least Valuable Players
In the conclusive chapter of the Most Valuable Players of the 2022-23 NBA season, we won’t look at the most valuable players in the league; instead, we’ll focus our attention on the opposite– the least valuable players. These are players 515 to 539 in surplus value, and guess what? They all produced negative value. Being on this list doesn’t mean a player is awful or a negative value going forward (although it could). All it indicates is their salary was far more than their contributions on the court.
Please check out Parts I, II, III, & IV if you’re interested in the actual Most Valuable Players
There were three primary reasons a player landed in the bottom 25 for surplus value. They were either paid too much, performed poorly, or played too little. A significant number hit more than one of these performance benchmarks. The most common surplus value destroyer was being paid too much. A player in this tier faces an insurmountable battle at the beginning of the season that even excellent health and production won’t overcome. The next most common was a combination of all three. To put it politely, shit hit the fan. Following the worst-case scenario, playing too little was the next best way to rack up negative surplus value. When a star player gets injured, it hurts. Poor performance claimed three souls, and poor performance while also being paid too much claimed two. And only one player was paid too much and played too little.
Paid too Much
Myles Turner: -$14,354,337.70 Surplus Value // 5.27 Wins // -1.75 StdDev
Myles Turner shouldn’t be here, but thanks to a midseason contract extension, he tanked his surplus value. Entering the 2022-23 season, Turner was set to make around $18 million, a figure his 5.27 wins would have more than covered. However, an unusual two-year contract extension in late January tacked on $17.1 million to his 2022-23 salary to bump it up to $35 million while adding two more years at $20.9 million and $19.9 million. Five wins equates to around $19.2 million in value. So long as Turner is healthy, he’ll be on at least a market-rate deal. The Pacers were shrewd to use excess cap space to keep a core player happy and in town for two more years.
Eric Gordon: -$14,634,554.96 Surplus Value // 1.29 Wins // -1.79 StdDev
The four-year, $76 million contract extension Eric Gordon signed with the Houston Rockets in August of 2019 has finally come to an end, and with its death, Gordon’s surplus value can rise from the ashes like a Phoenix in Phoenix. All-in-one advanced metrics have never loved Gordon because of his limited on-ball value and poor defense. While he can run an offense without embarrassing himself, he’s best deployed as a floor spacer. Unfortunately, if all you do is space the floor, it’s tough to be worth $19.5 million. Gordon signed with the Phoenix Suns for $3.1 million this offseason, and it’s a safe bet he won’t rack up -$14 million in value.
Tim Hardaway Jr.: -$14,668,467.96 Surplus Value // 1.29 Wins // -1.79 StdDev
Where’s the Spider-Man meme? Because Tim Hardaway Jr. and Eric Gordon managed almost identical seasons. Their surplus value, wins generated, and salary are all within spitting distance. Much like Gordon, he’s a floor spacer who brings along negative defensive value. The main difference between the two is Hardaway is larger but has less ability to operate an offense. While Hardaway’s contract runs for two more seasons, he’ll make less each subsequent season. His deal has value as salary ballast, but that’s about it. He has graduated into the guy in every single Dallas Mavericks fake trade, and if they make a significant move, he’ll likely be packing his bags.
Anfernee Simons: -$14,930,320.28 Surplus Value // 1.93 Wins // -1.83 StdDev
If you were wondering why the Portland Trailblazers weren’t interested in Tyler Herro, Anfernee Simons is a compelling point. The 24-year-old combo guard is an audacious and gifted scorer, pulling up from deep with abandon, a solid secondary playmaker, and an absolute defensive liability. Does that sound like anyone on the Miami Heat? In fact, his 1.6 offensive BPM over the past two seasons is slightly better than Herro’s 1.5, and the only reason Herro grades out better is his defensive metrics receive a boost from an exceptional supporting cast. Simons made $22.3 million this past season and will see his salary slowly rise to $27.6 million. Portland has its young score-first defensively-challenged guard on a large contract of the future, and Herro would have been an unnecessary redundancy. Simons is unlikely to drag himself out of the cellar as long as he remains on a poor defensive team. He’s a good, but not great, offensive creator, and it takes incredible offensive production to outweigh both his salary and defensive ineptitude.
CJ McCollum: -$15,229,916.05 Surplus Value // 4.72 Wins // -1.86 StdDev
CJ McCollum’s statistics look better than they really were. 20.9 points, 5.7 assists, and 2.4 turnovers per game on 38.9% 3-point shooting sound like an All-Star, but 2022-23 officially ended 20 points per game as a benchmark for excellence. 43 qualified players averaged 20 points per game or more. McCollum’s 51.5% effective field goal percentage ranked 35th among 20-point per game scorers, and his 2-point field goal percentage was last. McCollum isn’t a bad player, but much like Simons, you must be exceptional on offense if you’re a defensive sieve. Fortunately for the Pelicans, McCollum’s salary is descending, and 2022-23 was the worst offensive season of his career since his third season, according to Offensive BPM. With a bump in production, a drop in salary, and the steady inflation of the NBA salary cap, McCollum should move out of the very nadir of surplus value. I doubt he’ll ever be a positive value contract until this deal ends, but he also shouldn’t be one of the worst values in the league.
Rudy Gobert: -$15,941,494.77 Surplus Value // 5.79 Wins // -1.95 StdDev
Rudy Gobert’s first season in Minnesota was nothing short of a disappointment for all parties. Gobert had his worst season since his rookie year as the Timberwolves went 42-40 and were dismissed in five games by the Denver Nuggets in the first round of the playoffs. While he remained a strong defender, he wasn’t the all-engulfing black hole of his Utah days, and his efficiency around the basket tailed off. If this is the beginning of the end, the Timberwolves are in serious trouble. Gobert will make between $41 million and $46.6 million over the next three seasons, and anything short of All-Star-level production gives them next to no margin for error. However, there’s a good likelihood that Gobert rebounds to some degree. Over the previous six seasons, he averaged 10.9 wins per season, almost double his 5.79 wins in 2022-23. But it’s also likely he won’t be a double-digit wins player again. The Timberwolves trading for Gobert had some merit, but trading for his contract didn’t.
Kyle Lowry: -$17,141,083.65 Surplus Value // 2.92 Wins // -2.10 StdDev
Kyle Lowry turned 37 last March. He’s old. When you get old, you get worse at sports. He’s in the final year of his deal and at the stage of his career where if he wants to continue playing, he’ll make the minimum. After an offseason of swings and misses, the Heat desperately need him to turn back the clock, but chances are he’ll be salary in a trade before being bought out.
Tobias Harris: -$17,494,678.44 Surplus Value // 5.25 Wins // -2.14 StdDev
Tobias Harris was in an impossible situation. He was obviously overpaid ($37.6 million) and relegated to a tertiary option on offense. It’s almost impossible to sport a sub-20% usage and be worth $37.6 million unless you’re one of the best defensive centers in the sport. However, even at his best, Harris could never live up to the five-year, $180 million contract the Sixers handed him. He’s in the final year of his deal at $39.2 million, and with James Harden cosplaying the Joker, there’s a good chance he provides more value for the Sixers this season. It still won’t be enough to get him out of the red, but it’s better than being the most overpriced and overqualified fourth option in the league.
All of Them
Derrick Rose: -$15,039,067.50 Surplus Value // -0.14 Wins // -1.84 StdDev
Everything went wrong for Derrick Rose in 2022-23. He couldn’t stay on the court, was rubbish when he did, and his $14.5 million salary meant he needed to be healthy and an NBA quality contributor just to break even. What’s most surprising about Rose’s past season is he was actually quite good in 2021-22 when he was on the court. He produced a 2.3 BPM and 0.7 VORP in 26 games, and the Knicks were +7.2 points per 100 possessions better with him on the court. While availability seems to have passed Rose by, he looked like he still had some ability entering 2022-23. Rose signed with the Memphis Grizzlies for two years, $6.6 million, and it’s hard to know if it’s a good deal. If he repeats his 2022-23, it’ll be a waste, but if he bounces back a little in the production department and can hit 40 games, he has a fighting chance to break even. Personally, I think 2022-23 was the end of the line for Rose, but for $3.3 million, it’s worth a shot to see if he has anything left in the tank because he was an exceptional role player not long ago.
Duncan Robinson: -$18,533,803.23 Surplus Value // -0.43 Wins // -2.27 StdDev
Since Duncan Robinson’s breakout in 2019-20, he has been in steady decline. While it would be naive to expect anyone to continuously post 44.6% 3-point shooting on 8.3 attempts per game and 65.4% shooting on twos, in 2022-23, he slumped to 32.8% on threes and 55.6% on twos in only 42 games played. The five-year, $90 million contract Robinson signed with the Heat in 2021 has become one of the worst contracts in the sport, but it wasn’t some horrible decision at the time. He was coming off an excellent two-season stretch that solidified him as one of the sport’s elite 3-point shooters, hitting 42.7% of his 8.4 3-point attempts per game. With his defensive limitation, Robinson needs to be a threat from beyond the arc, not only to be productive but to even get on the court. He’s owed $57.4 million over the next three seasons, and if he can’t regain his shooting touch, he’ll continue to be one of the worst values in the league.
Evan Fournier: -$18,844,698.14 Surplus Value // -0.22 Wins // -2.31 StdDev
The Evan Fournier era in New York has not aged like a fine French wine. Fournier signed a four-year, $73 million deal with the Knicks in 2021 and immediately saw a drop in production but was still solid enough to play 80 games. This past season, Fournier continued to decline to the point that he lost his spot in the rotation. With only one more year on the deal before a team option, Fournier is treated like an expiring contract. If the Knicks look to upgrade their roster substantially, Fournier is likely to be included as salary ballast. There’s a chance he still has something left in the tank, but so long as he’s making close to $20 million, he’ll be viewed as an untouchable.
Gordon Hayward: -$25,198,788.01 Surplus Value // 1.27 Wins // -3.10 StdDev
A laundry list of injuries has taken its toll on Gordon Hayward. After being incredibly durable over his first seven seasons (playing 516 of 558 possible games), a gruesome leg injury five minutes into the 2017-18 season sent Hayward into a downward health spiral. Over the past four seasons, Hayward has played between 52 and 44 games each season and seen his production dip significantly. The 2023-24 season is the final year of his four-year, $120 million contract, and it’ll take an unprecedented bounce back in production and health for him to approach the $31.5 million he’s owed. Hayward is still an NBA quality rotation player, but it’s clear his body can’t handle the rigors of a starters’ workload. Unless the Hornets swing a massive trade and use Hayward’s expiring contract as salary filler, he’ll likely play out this season before entering free agency. If they fall out of the playoff picture, he’s a potential buyout candidate. Hayward can still offer a team productive minutes in a small role, but it’s impossible to produce surplus value off the bench at $30+ million.
Ben Simmons: -$27,596,818.84 Surplus Value // 2.05 Wins // -3.40 StdDev
I refuse to sell my Ben Simmons stock, but even for a believer, this is my final stand. Simmons’ main issue has been health. He missed all of 2021-22 and only played in 42 games this past season as a worrisome back injury sapped his athleticism. Sometimes, there is no recovery from a back injury, but if he can regain his athleticism, he’s young and talented enough to be an impact player. In the four seasons prior to his lost 2021-22 campaign, he averaged 8.35 wins per season and 9.96 wins per 82 games played. Simmons’ salary is $37.8 million this season and $40.3 million in 2024-25, so he has to regain his prior form to drag himself out of the surplus value cellar. With a clean bill of health, he has a real shot at reclaiming his status as a defensive ace and dangerous playmaker. He’ll probably never have a reliable jumper, but that didn’t stop him from being an All-NBA-level player before. However, if his back injuries have truly robbed him of his athleticism, he’ll officially be on one of the worst contracts in the sport.
Bradley Beal: -$28,458,637.18 Surplus Value // 3.86 Wins // -3.50 StdDev
I wasn’t a fan of the Phoenix Suns’ trade for Bradley Beal, and it all boils down to surplus value. Beal is where surplus value goes to die. He made $43.2 million last season, demanding 11.27 wins to break even, has never eclipsed nine wins in a season, has missed 101 games over the past four seasons, and is owed $207.7 million over the next four. Even if Beal were consistently healthy, his current deal would still be a significant net negative. The Suns also don’t need Beal because they have Devin Booker, who is younger, better, and on a very similar deal. The combination of Kevin Durant, Booker, and Beal gives the Suns tremendous upside, but it has also stretched their roster so thin that any missed time from the trio will have significant consequences. The Suns traded away their last remaining assets to get one of the worst contracts in the league. Beal is an excellent player, but championship teams need surplus value from somewhere, and hoping it comes from your minimum signings is a dangerous game to play.
Played Too Little
Jonathan Isaac: -$15,787,394.46 Surplus Value // 0.42 Wins // -1.93 StdDev
Jonathan Isaac isn’t on a horrible contract ($17.4 million), but he has played 11 games over the past three seasons. If you don’t play, you don’t provide value.
Brandon Ingram: -$17,674,685.32 Surplus Value // 3.64 Wins // -2.17 StdDev
Brandon Ingram’s durability has sneakily been a problem. The most games he has played in a season since his rookie year is 62, and last season, he set a career low in games played at 45. While his contract outpaces his production somewhat, it isn’t egregious, and he has a rare skillset as a jumbo ball handler capable of self-creation. I wouldn’t want to be on the hook for his next contract, but his fun-max is perfectly fine. The Pelicans need Zion to be healthy, but they also need Ingram to be too. If he can hit 70 games this season, and Zion can eclipse 60, the Pelicans could finally break out of the play-in dregs.
Karl-Anthony Towns: -$22,429,975.11 Surplus Value // 2.97 Wins // -2.76 StdDev
Last season was a prolonged victory lap for those who lambasted the Timberwolves Rudy Gobert trade, but they were basically celebrating a significant calf injury to Karl-Anthony Towns. The whole argument against the trade was Gobert and Towns, two centers, couldn’t co-exist. After one season, we basically have no idea if they can because Towns went down 21 games into the season before reemerging with eight games to go. The discourse around Towns always baffles me. He’s one of the best offensive centers in the league and has been a consistent high-end producer. In 2021-22, when the Timberwolves won 46 games and made the playoffs, he was by far their best player. The world loves Anthony Edwards, but I’d be willing to bet that Towns is again the Timberwolves’ best player next season. The looming concern for the Timberwolves is when Towns’ massive extension begins in the 2024-25 season. However, next season, Towns has a great chance to provide surplus value if he hits 65 games played. He’s not an MVP-caliber player, but he’s right in the All-NBA conversation when healthy.
Andrew Wiggins: -$26,609,614.98 Surplus Value // 1.83 Wins // -3.27 StdDev
Andrew Wiggins only played in 37 games as he attended to personal matters. His absence cost the Warriors dearly, but he was probably never going to net out positive surplus value in the final year of rookie scale extension. While $33.3 million is too much for Wiggins, he’ll only make $24.3 million this upcoming season and will slowly see his salary rise to a $30.1 million player option in 2026-27. With how desperate teams are for 3-and-D wings, Wiggins doesn’t need to be a surplus value goldmine to be on a positive contract. As long as he’s within a shout of breaking even, that’s a great deal.
Khris Middleton: -$31,190,690.88 Surplus Value // 1.76 Wins // -3.84 StdDev
Khris Middleton provided the least surplus value in the NBA last season. Which makes the fact that the Milwaukee Bucks won the most games in the league extraordinary. Middleton had pretty much everything working against him last season. He hardly played, 801 minutes in 33 games, was ineffective compared to his standards, and made a cool $37.9 million. His lack of effectiveness was partially due to him fighting injuries, but he was also at an age (31) when players start to decline. Middleton’s reputation around the league went from severely underrated to severely overrated in the blink of a championship run. According to BPM, his only All-NBA quality season was in 2019-20 at 4.1, when he missed out on a 50/40/90 season by 0.3% of field goal percentage. Outside of his career year, Middelton’s BPM has maxed out at 1.6. However, as a wing who can credibly create offense for himself and others, Middleton’s value goes beyond pure wins because of the scarcity of his skillset. The Bucks signed him to a reasonable three-year, $95 million contract this offseason, but they desperately need him to rebound to his non-peak best. Teams chasing championships overpay to keep players because a single additional win means more to them than anyone else. Hopefully, a reduced offensive load with the arrival of Damian Lillard allows Middleton to play to his strengths, stay healthy, and aid in a deep playoff run.
Poor Performance
Terry Rozier: -$14,076,009.59 Surplus Value // 1.93 Wins // -1.72 StdDev
Terry Rozier set career highs in points and assists per game last season and still had one of the worst seasons of his career. His increased usage and offensive responsibility cut deep enough into his efficiency to torpedo his offensive value, and the Hornets’ dreadful defense weighed down his defensive metrics. Without LaMelo Ball and Miles Bridges, Rozier became the Hornets’ go-to ball handler, and he did an admirable job trying to keep a sinking ship afloat. While he wasn’t able to drag a dreadful roster from bottoming out, he’s still a good player who should see a bounce back in 2023-24 with a role that aligns with his talent. Rozier will make $23.2 million in 2023-24, $24.9 million in 2024-25, and $26.6 million in 2025-26. To break even going forward, Rozier needs to produce about six wins per season. He generated just under six wins in 2020-21 and 2021-22, so he should be able to drag his surplus out of the basement, even if he remains a slight negative value contract.
Doug McDermott: -$13,903,581.48 Surplus Value // -0.04 Wins // -1.70 StdDev
Doug McDermott is an excellent floor spacer and a dreadful defender. While his skillset has value around the league, he’s at the mercy of the quality of his teammates. He needs to play off real offensive threats to make his floor spacing worth it and needs a strong defense to offset his defensive ineptitude, and the Spurs had neither. McDermott is in the final year of his deal, so he’s a prime trade candidate, but at $13.75 million, he’s more likely to end up on a contender via buyout.
Dillon Brooks: -$14,030,082.85 Surplus Value // -0.69 Wins // -1.71 StdDev
According to VORP and Win Shares, Dillon Brooks was one of the worst players in the NBA last season. His -0.69 wins added was 521st out of 539 and was the worst for any player to play significant minutes not on his rookie deal. Naturally, the Houston Rockets paid him up to $90 million over four years. Perimeter defense, Brooks calling card, is usually underrated by Win Shares and VORP, but it’s his abysmal offense that tanked his value. The Rockets are making a big bet that Brooks will reign in his shot selection because his 3-point shooting is somehow the least of his offensive concerns. Brooks is one of the worst high-volume shooters on 2-point attempts, which is unacceptable for a player who should be the fourth option on offense at best. If Brooks sticks to the 3-and-D part, he won’t be one of the worst players in the league, but there is very little chance he will break even in the eyes of Win Shares and VORP. His contract feels like an overpay to help build a new culture in Houston, which has unmeasurable value, but it’s an expensive gamble.
Paid too Much & Poor Performance
Michael Porter Jr.: -$17,475,370.50 Surplus Value // 3.50 Wins // -2.14 StdDev
If the Denver Nuggets hope to build a dynasty, they need Michael Porter Jr. to go to the next level. He’s one of the best jump shooters in the world, but that’s all he is. Part of that is his role, playing off of Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray, but that doesn’t excuse his ambivalent attitude towards defense. His offensive impact in a small usage role is extraordinary, but most of that value is negated by poor defense. Porter will see his salary go from $30.9 million in 2022-23 to $40.8 million in 2026-27. The Nuggets need his defense to get closer to average to keep their championship aspirations humming, and if he adds any self-creation on offense, that’s just gravy. Porter has the talent to be significantly better than last season, and hopefully, a continuous run of games without injury helps him make up for significant lost development time. However, if this is who he is, the Nuggets will need Jokic to continue to be a world destroyer and for playoff Murray to be a year-round event to continue being the best in the West.
Klay Thompson: -$29,465,422.70 Surplus Value // 2.90 Wins // -3.63 StdDev
If the Warriors hadn’t won the 2021-22 championship, Klay Thompson’s contract would be the subject of more scrutiny. He remains a lethal shooter, but his loss of athleticism due to two significant leg injuries has significantly eaten into his 2-point efficiency and defense and thus, his overall impact. Thompson will make $43.2 million in the final year of his deal, and any extension should be a significant salary reduction. The Warriors long underpaid Draymond Green, and Thompson has been the financial benefactor. To keep their championship window open, Thompson will finally need to take a below-market-rate deal. If he doesn’t, good for him. He should take as much as he can get, but it’ll make the Warriors’ quest for a fifth title with this core far more difficult.
Paid too Much & Played too Little
Paul George: -$21,739,870.52 Surplus Value // 5.41 Wins // -2.67 StdDev
Paul George remains an excellent player, but the combination of his salary and injury history have tanked his surplus value. $42.4 million in salary asks a player to produce 11.06 wins, and George hasn’t come close to that since his final season in Oklahoma City in 2018-19. He’s still one of the best players in the league, but he isn’t so good on a per-minute basis that he can afford to miss time, and as age and injuries have taken their toll, his per-minute production has declined. George is now officially overpaid, which is a major concern for the Clippers because he’ll make $45.6 million this season and has a $48.7 million player option for 2024-25. With an owner as wealthy as Steve Ballmer, the Clippers don’t have to worry about surplus value as much as other franchises, but George staying healthy would be a significant boost for the title odds.