The Myth of Playoff Jimmy is a Myth
How Jimmy Butler does and doesn’t raise his game in the playoffs
During the 2022-23 NBA playoffs, no player has captured basketball fans’ imagination quite like Jimmy Butler. His game harkens back to the bygone era of mid-post dominance, toughness, and ruthless trash talk. He possesses the unique ability to appear as a man out of his time and exactly of his time. He attacks defenses with the relentless methodical efficiency that has become the staple of modern offense, but he does it in a fashion thought to have been lost in space and pace. He is 90s rap dominating the charts in the 2020s. He is playoff Jimmy.
The narrative that Jimmy Butler raises his game in the playoffs is seductive. It’s the classic tale of a desperate man rising to the occasion. He isn’t the hero because he wants to be. He is the hero because he needs to be. Toss in the throwback style indicative of Butler’s game, and his playoff exploits feel like an action film that suddenly takes the world by storm. Is he John McClane? Is he John Wick? No, goddamnit, he’s Jimmy ‘Freaking’ Butler.
The truth is, Jimmy Butler doesn’t suddenly rise to the occasion in the playoffs. He’s always this good. You just weren’t paying close enough attention.
Jimmy Butler King of the Regular Season
Jimmy Butler’s regular season exploits are criminally underrated. He’s ninth in career win shares per 48 minutes (WS/48) among active players, 23rd in NBA history, has been in the top ten each of the past four seasons (six total), and finished second this past season.
Box plus/minus (BPM) paints an almost identical picture. He’s 10th in career BPM among active players, 24th in NBA history, has four seasons in the top ten, and finished fourth this season with a career-best BPM of 8.7. Jimmy Butler might be the peace offering we need for the eye test vs. analytics debate.
If Jimmy Butler is so good during the regular season, why does it feel like he suddenly goes from zero to hero when the playoffs roll around? The answer is twofold, but the first one is relatively simple, he plays more.
Minutes Matter
Zeroing in on Jimmy Butler’s time in Miami, when the myth of playoff Jimmy became a national sensation, it’s pretty easy to see why people would get the wrong idea about Butler’s post-season production compared to his regular season production.
Since Butler joined the Heat, he has averaged 3.7 more points per game in the playoffs compared to the regular season, but that also comes with a 4.5 spike in minutes played and 3.6 more field goal attempts. Considering his minutes increase, the 0.3 drop in assists per game is meaningful, which is why his per 36-minute stats are so illuminating.
The only real difference between regular season and post-season Jimmy Butler on a per 36-minute basis is he trades in an assist and free throw for one-and-half more field goal attempts. The net result is actually a lower total point production, as 1.1 assist is always worth more than 0.8 points. Not that 23.8 points with 5.2 assists and 2.1 turnovers per 36 minutes are anything to sneeze at.
While much of the playoff Jimmy sensation is simply a product of playing four-and-a-half more minutes per game, the advanced metrics show that playoff Jimmy does alter his game from the regular season.
How Jimmy Butler Alters His Game in the Playoffs
Playoff Jimmy ramps up his usage and goes more for scoring than passing, but that comes with a trade-off. In the playoffs, Butler takes more threes and gets to the line less frequently, which is why his true shooting drops, even though his effective field goal percentage rises. As you’ll notice, Butler’s BPM rises, and his WS/48 drops. This is another trade-off he makes come playoff time. BPM highly values volume, while WS/48 loves efficiency.
The myth of playoff Jimmy is all about perception. During the regular season, Jimmy Butler is an efficiency monster, but when the playoffs roll around, he starts to mess around with being a high-volume scorer. If there’s one way to get noticed, regardless of your effectiveness, it’s to be a high-volume scorer.
Since joining the Heat, Butler’s overall effectiveness has remained steady from the regular season to the playoffs. He just changes how he gets to that effectiveness by increasing his shooting volume, curbing his playmaking just a smidge, and trading in efficiency for volume.
Don’t get it twisted. Jimmy Butler is exceptional in the playoffs. When many players see their production drop, he holds steady. Playoff Jimmy isn’t a myth. The myth is that regular season Jimmy isn’t one of the ten best players in the world. He is, and always has been, even if you weren’t paying attention.