The NBA Gave the Sacramento Kings a Schedule Tank
How the NBA schedule makers doomed the Kings from the start
Unlike the NFL, the NBA has relatively balanced scheduling. Every team plays every team at least twice, and teams will face 10 out of their 14 conference foes four times, with the other four meeting three times. It’s not perfect, but it does nearly place every team vying for a playoff spot on equal footing. However, just because the overall schedule is balanced, it doesn’t mean the scheduling of the schedule is, and the Kings are paying the price.
According to Basketball Reference’s strength of schedule, the Kings have faced the league’s toughest schedule at +4.28. The next toughest strength of schedule is the Chicago Bulls at +2.53. That +1.75 gap in opponent quality between first and second is basically the difference between the Bulls in second and the Sixers in 12th. While the Kings’ schedule will eventually lighten up, their season might be over by the time it does.
Using current net ratings, the Kings’ first 39 scheduled games will see them face opponents with an average offensive rating of 117.13, a defensive rating of 113.89, and a net rating of +3.24. And it could get worse. Due to the NBA cup, each team has two unscheduled games between December 11th and 15th. Since the Kings are already 0-2 in group play, chances are they’ll be facing one of the ten other eliminated Western Conference teams. Due to the already scheduled schedule, we know which of the six teams the Kings could end up playing, and we know if it will be home or away. The Kings will play one of Dallas, New Orleans, or Minnesota on the road, and host one of Denver, Oklahoma City, or San Antonio.
The worst-case scenario is they face Minnesota and Oklahoma City, but that possibility is incredibly unlikely as they’re in the same group and the Timberwolves are already 2-0. What’s most likely is they’ll travel to one of Dallas or New Orleans and host one of Denver or San Antonio, as they’re in the same group and every team is currently 1-1. The best-case scenario for the Kings, facing the Pelicans and Spurs, would see them lower their first-half opponent average net rating to +2.93, while the worst case, facing Dallas and Denver, would see it barely budge to +3.21. Either way, the Kings’ first-half schedule is about as daunting as it comes, and it could sink their season well before the All-Star break.
An even more rudimentary way to describe the Kings’ front-loaded abomination of a schedule is to just look at the difference between teams in the top and bottom ten of net rating. Over their opening 39 games, they’ll face eight teams currently in the bottom ten in net rating, and before tonight’s contest against the Grizzlies, they’ve only faced one. Conversely, they’ve already faced nine teams in the top ten in net rating over their first 15 games, and will face another nine as they get to 41. They’ll likely get one team from the bottom and top ten in net rating for their post-NBA Cup schedule, which would bring their first half total to nine teams in the bottom ten and 19 in the top ten.
When we flip the calendar to the second half, the Kings’ schedule opens up significantly. Their opponents have an average offensive rating of 114.81, a defensive rating of 116.7, and a net rating of -1.89. Using the same top vs bottom ten metric as before, the Kings will face nine teams with a top ten rating and 17 with a bottom ten net rating over the season’s final 41 games. However, their schedule, based on current net ratings, doesn’t really open up until February. Starting with their February 1st contest against the Wizards, 16 of the Kings’ final 32 games are against teams that currently own bottom-ten net ratings. This is frankly a scheduling abomination.
By the time the Kings can make up ground in the standings, they’ll be so far back that they’ll have packed their bags for Cancun. A truly balanced schedule doesn’t just evenly distribute who you play, but also when. The Kings play every single one of their currently scheduled games against the Nuggets, Thunder, and Timberwolves by November 24th. That’s nine games out of 18. You read that right: 50% of their first 18 games are against three of the best teams in the league. Meanwhile, they don’t play their first Eastern Conference sad sack, the Pacers, until December 8th, and eight of their scheduled games against the Pacers, Wizards, Nets, and Pelicans come in the second half of the season, with seven coming after January.
The Kings aren’t a good team. I don’t think this is secretly a playoff team, but their schedule practically doomed them from the start. Teams decide to push forward or retreat for lottery odds based on their mid-season record, and the Kings were handed a time bomb which read, “0:03.” The teams in the bottom and top ten of net rating will continue to fluctuate throughout the season, but the fact remains, the Kings, a mediocre team at best, were handed a schedule tank. If the league wants to combat tanking, perhaps take the obvious measure of designing a schedule that is actually well-balanced.
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