The Pacers are Almost the Clutchest Team in (Recorded) History
The Pacers have thrived in the clutch, but they’re not quite the clutchest of them all
There is never one reason a team reaches the NBA Finals. However, there is still one really good reason they did. Overall, the Indiana Pacers were a solid regular season team, as their +2.2 net rating and 50-32 record will attest to. You could say they were better than those figures, as they dug a 10-15 with a -4.1 net rating hole to start the season. However, even if you believe their +5.1 net rating and 40-17 record over the final 57 games of the season is their true talent level, this is still not a team you’d expect to make the NBA Finals, especially when you factor in their +3.2 playoff net rating.
Yet, despite all the data saying otherwise, the Pacers keep winning, and against all odds, find themselves up 2-1 against the 68-win Oklahoma City Thunder. So, how have the Pacers so consistently punched above their weight? Well, they’re almost the clutchest team on record. Sometimes, there is really just one good reason a team reaches the Finals.
NBA.com has clutch data dating back to the 1996-97 season, which is what we’ll call modern NBA history. For a game to enter the clutch zone, it has to be the final five minutes or overtime of a game, and the score must be within five. This isn’t a perfect measure of clutch, as a team can enter the clutch with ten seconds left and no real chance at winning and vice-versa, but over a full season, the best teams in the clutch by net rating generally have the best record in those contests.
The 2024-25 Indiana Pacers’ +20.9 clutch net rating was the best figure on the season and the 25th-best mark since 1996-97. Their performance in close games helps explain how they outperformed their Pythagorean expected win total (based on point differential) by four. While the Pacers were an offense-first team overall, their exceptional clutch performance was largely powered by their defense. They held their opponents to a 98.3 offensive rating, but that was partially thanks to their opponents shooting 26.5% from 3-point range.
That being said, the Pacers weren’t just locking down and getting lucky late in games. Their 119.3 offensive rating is impressive, ranking 40th all-time, but it’s miles off the all-time high of 131.6 by the 2021-22 Phoenix Suns, and only ranked fifth this season. In fact, with Tyrese Haliburton, Pascal Siakam, and Myles Turner on the court this season, three players you’d assume would play most of their clutch minutes, the Pacers had a 119.62 offensive rating, according to PBP Stats.
The Pacers were clearly an excellent clutch team, but their regular season excellence had a bit to do with their opponents bricking their way out of leads and their big-three playing when it mattered most. That’s nothing to scoff at, but it’s not really why they’re one of the greatest clutch teams ever. No, what they’ve done in the playoffs is truly remarkable.
Among playoff teams to play more than 10 clutch minutes since 1996-97, the Pacers’ clutch net rating of +45.7 is the ninth-highest ever, and is the second best among teams to play at least 30 clutch minutes. They’re 9-1 in clutch games, which is the fifth-highest win percentage ever, and the highest among teams who played at least seven clutch playoff games. As far as the playoffs go, the Pacers could become just the sixth team to hit double-digit clutch wins. However, the 2001-02 Lakers’ record of 13 clutch playoff victories remains safe.
To get to a +45.7 net rating in the clutch, the Pacers have held opponents to a 100.0 offensive rating, and posted a ludicrous 145.7 offensive rating, the sixth highest mark ever, and the highest among teams to log at least 20 clutch playoff minutes. No team in NBA history, since 1996-97 at least, has ever combined the playoff volume and efficiency that these Pacers have on offense.
The secret sauce to the Pacers’ clutch escapades lies in their democratic offense and unrelenting pressure. During the regular season, they were the only team in the league to feature six players who averaged 1.4 or more points per clutch game, and were the only team to have two players average over 3.0 points per clutch game (minimum 20 clutch games). While most teams spam isolations for their best player(s) in the clutch, the Pacers are more than willing to play their game and remain a bit more unpredictable. No doubt their relentless pace plays a part in this, but so does their relentless pressure.
The Pacers led the league in full-court pressure possessions (1,015) in 2024-25 by a significant margin. The tactic has helped their defense perform above its talent level to a degree, but it also makes them better prepared for the clutch. When chasing a game, full-court pressure becomes a requirement. Unlike most teams, the Pacers are actually prepared to press, and don’t just resort to it out of necessity. And to top it off, all that pressure wears the opposition down by the final minutes of the game. The Pacers, whether intentionally or not, have built a clutch monster, and it has them on the precipice of history.
The combination of the Pacers’ exceptional regular season and playoff clutch performances leaves them in rarified air. They’re one of three teams to rank in the top-25 all-time in both regular season and playoff clutch net rating, along with the 2015-16 Golden State Warriors and the 2010-11 Dallas Mavericks. Those Warriors went 73-9 before losing in seven games in the Finals, while the Mavericks went on an improbable run to win the title, but who, out of the three, was the clutchest? (Answer: Rick Carlisle)
No matter how you slice it, the 2024-25 Pacers are probably not the clutchest team since 1996-97. In fact, I think it’s safe to say that the 2010-11 Dallas Mavericks are the easy victors here. Their combination of insane volume, 66 combined clutch games, efficiency (+26.1 regular season net rating, and +60.3 playoff net rating), and the fact that they won the title is more than enough to crown them. However, the Pacers potentially have four more games to add to their ledger, and a series victory over the Oklahoma City Thunder would count as one of the biggest upsets in NBA Finals history.
As this exercise details, being historically clutch requires both incredible offensive production and some serious defensive luck. Clutch teams don’t just take games; they also capitalize when they’re given them. The Pacers are enjoying one of the clutchest seasons on record, perhaps the clutchest when it’s all said and done. Regardless of how their season ultimately ends, they’ll go down in history as one of the clutchest teams ever.
For any inquiries about work, discussion, and the like, you can email me at nevin.l.brown@gmail.com.